dayworker

Satellite Radio Has Found the Key to Success

There are a lot of emotional people here on this blog that love the product and really want success for Siri. Many people feel the best
way for the stock price to rise is for institutional investors to buy blocks. These inst. investors have to do their due diligence. They have other people's money, retirement funds, mutual funds, and private equity hedge funds, and probably others.
Their due diligence will look at the management team and how well they perform, the product viability, the economic climate for the product, the growth potential, debt structure and the market perception of the stock. They have to assess the risk for their portoflio for other people's money. Given all that how are they going
to look at Siri's risk as an investment.
I'm not a Siri basher. I have a lot of stock and want it go up. I'm looking at the stock as an investment vehicle and don't have the emotions that some do. I analyze to understand the stock as an investment and how other investor's might look at it.
I posted that after the Nov. call that it would go down to the mid fifty cents. Why, because the demand for the stock would not be there for investors. The fundamentals of investment are not there and there would be little demand and with stock manipulation it would be on a downward trajectory. Now I know people will start calling me a basher but i'm looking at Siri as an investor. There are problems withit as an investment. No emotion involved.
Pell said once that Siri was a good investment because there would be a branding and advertising plan. Well that kind of fizziled. The skydock would bring in subs. Has that happened.
Mel shouted no Reverse Split. Now everyone's saying r/s is the only way to get institutional buyers in but everyone might take a
40% hit. So how does this make Siri look good as an investment.
One of the problems is still management hasn't hit a home run yet with the consumer. Time is running out. If the consumer permanently checks themselves into new media the Siri will be in the position to try and win back a sub base that will slowly bleed away. And yes I know that sat rad is better than old radio, and that it's the best way to play radio in the car, but if the consumer doesn't
go that way because of content or bad advertising or branding, then it's about time to look at why management continues to fail. Right now there is no confidence Siri will be a break out and the demand for the stock is not there. Hence, lower and lower stock price.

Satellite Radio Has Found the Key to Success

Pell you are right about the car culture for radio. However, what are the demographics. Age, gender, ethnicity, and numbers. How many will want sat rad and at what cost. What content do they want. With ipods and iphone they can use the dock to play their own playlists and audio books and files. They can listen to podcasts of shows. With children in the cars playing with tech toys they can't always listen to sat rad. If you are talking about truckers and commuters then what percntage will want sat rad during the drive. The point being the profit will have to be based on what amount of drivers will want to subscribe for what kind of content and what the competition is for those drivers. That is my point about the uncertainity and the investor doesn't know the risk as well as the r/s, the economy and management's competence and overall business model. Where is the upside to buying the stock?

Satellite Radio Has Found the Key to Success

Oh Boy! Why does everyone keep avoiding reality. There are so many here diverting their attention from what is happening.
I've given reasons for the price drop but i'm always attacked and yet my views are vindicated week after week. Here it is again.
1. The flash traders anticpate a buy and set up a buy/sell order before the buy order settles. They make micro profits on the spread thus always keeping the p/s from going up.
2. Investors buy a stock because of the company profits. Siri has not established a strong financial plan that ensures the profits will grow. It is dependent on sub growth against all expenses and debts.
Management has shown an incompetence by leveraging the company to the brink. Investors don't like a company staying alive on debt.
3. Siri content is a fickle entertainment business. The public can change on a dime about what they want for entertainment.
4. Competition in new media distribution and smartphones. With limited extra cash in the down economy there is only so much money to be spread among entertainment. How much will go to Sat
Rad is not definite. So much goes to smartphone subscrition and home tv cable and interenet, how much does the consumer have left over. And now with mandate health ins. coming people will have to pay out from their income money they spent other places.
Thus, this all leads to uncertainity about Siri profits. And with the r/s unknown the investor doesn't know the risk of buying this stock.

Sirius XM Long Term Investors Will Make a Good Deal of Money - Gabelli

Blah, Blah, Blah. Crystal balls are for the numnuts. If anyone thinks
he can see the future for a company like SIRI they need to stop taking
delusion pills. The investors who buy stocks are unpredictable. All
investors are doing is waiting to pounce on a sure thing. Siri is not a sure thing for institutional investors. Retail buyers are getting screwed.
A company can't run it's business based on what they think investors will do, retail or institutional. They run it on the basis of making profits in their product field. Can Siri make enough profit
to get the p/s higher. There's no crystal ball. The rest is blah, blah.

What Is Making Sirius XM Shares Behave Mysteriously?

To bad i can't post my old blogs. Buy and sell orders, supply and demand. Everything i've been saying. If the demand was real and there were buy orders waiting to be filled they aren't going to wait until the price is higher, they want to buy when it's low, obviously. But as I've said before, the micro flashtraders anticipate a buy order before it settles and then grab the shares on the way up before any buy orders
settle, thus creaming the sell orders first and then turn around and sell the micro orders at a flashtrade, thus dropping the uptick created by a buy order. If there are any doubters, just study the stream of orders for the last 2 months and what happens on a day to day basis now. Almost all micro buys and sells. It doesn't have to do with SIRI financials, business model, subs numbers or the economy any more. Siri now functions in the market place like any
company in this economic climate. The problem now is how it is played on the market. Everyone's energy has to go to figuring out
how to deal with micro flashtraders. And it's a big problem because they have the upperhand in market plays with the auto computer programs automatically making buy and sell orders. Otherwise
SIRI would be inching up. Stuck because of market activity. R/S
may or may not help. Big price for shareholders to pay because of market players. And it may not work. We need another solution.

Sirius Outlook, Auto Sales Update

The SIRI stock trades in micro moves. This means micro flashtraders
buy and sell in seconds with micro trades. A little uptick they can
anticipate tells them to buy micro shares and then sell as a micro
trade. That's why the p/s is stuck. Any uptick can be anticipated before
it settles allowing micro's to buy and sell thus keeping it at the p/s narrow range. It's a problem because no matter what happens with
auto's, subs, or financials, unless the micro's are run off the p/s won't move. That's just a market fact. Put your minds how to beat the micro's. That's where the energy needs to go and SIRI p/s
will take care of itself. If you're a doubter look at the price moves the
last 2 months or watch the trades happening on a day to day. It';s all micro moves.

RBC on Sirius: Past, Present, Future

P/S goes up, FLASHTRADERS hit it, it goes down. How to get rid of
FLASHTRADERS is the problem.

Janco Partners' Arenson Resumes Sirius Coverage, Discusses Pros and Cons

Pell, I just repeated what I wrote on the other blog thread. Didn't know which one was being read. I just wanted to get the point out that SIRI
is getting hammered by the traders. That puts SIRI in a bind between market manipulators and r/s for delisting requirement. Tough position.
No easy answer. Traders could keep p/s down for a long time even though SIRI is on an upswing. Then what, a forced r/s

Sirius XM's Karmazin Speaks Out Against Reverse Split

One reason p/s hits resistance is because of flash traders. If there is a 10k shares or a million shares on a buy, then a flash trader can know before it settles to buy equal amount of shares and then on the buy uptick turn around and sell the exact same match of shares and take a micro spread gain. They can keep doing that everytime there is a surge in the buying and thus keep the p/s in a narrow range and keep making money on micro gains. Which seems to be what is happening these last months. The p/s may have nothing to do whether or not SIRI moves forward with better
financials or sub increases but the way flash traders are playing the
market.

Janco Partners' Arenson Resumes Sirius Coverage, Discusses Pros and Cons

One reason p/s hits resistance is beause of flash trading. If there are 10 k shares or a million shares on a buy, then a flash trader can know before it settles to buy equal amount of shares and then on the buy uptick turn around and sell the exact same match of shares and take a micro spread. They can keep doing that everytime there is a surge
in buying and thus keep the p/s share in a narrow range and keep making money on micro gains. The p/s may have nothing to do with
whether SIRI moves forward with better financials or sub increases but the way the flash traders are playing the market.

Janco Partners' Arenson Resumes Sirius Coverage, Discusses Pros and Cons

Does anyone know if micro flash traders can beat a retail market order
before it settles? In other words if there is buy order going to trade a certain numbers of shares, can a flash trader beat that order before it executes, and therefore make a gain on the spread by selling on the uptick of the market order buy. It seems that following the timeline of
SIRI p/s when ever there is a small uptick, there is someone there ready to sell on the uptick buy. Which then drops the uptick down
immediately. It's as if some knows the buy is coming and they are already in position to sell on the uptick. Are those the flash traders keeping the p/s down?

Sirius XM's Karmazin Speaks Out Against Reverse Split

misspelled ~their~ should be ~there~

Sirius XM's Karmazin Speaks Out Against Reverse Split

Does anyone know if a micro flash trader can beat a buy retail market order before it settles? In other words if a buy market order goes to trade at a certain price for a set number of shares, can a flash trader
knowing the market order is in, beat it before execution so they can sell the flash order on the uptick buy so they can squash the uptick and take out the micro gain spread? It just seems when you study the time line of SIRI share price, on a small uptick, there is someone their
to make a gain on the spread with a sell that drops the p/s down a tick.

Liberty's Sirius Preferred Stake Expected to Be Spun Off

One possibility that now hangs out there is that SIRI will issue more stock as they reserved the right to do, dilute shareholder interest again, but buy the Liberty stake back. This is at the cost of dilution and shareholder value. But it ensures that management and talent will continue to get their money at cost of dilution. This is what I think is possible about their leverage play. To use stockholder money to keep themselves in the money.

Liberty's Sirius Preferred Stake Expected to Be Spun Off

Thanks Pell, I am making suggestions only. I like many can only try and analyze in order to make investment decisions. All the factors can be looked at. It's not a matter of bias just trying to be objective.
I have no beef with anyone and just ascertain which fundamentals work and which are wrong. Sometimes managements are wrong,
ie. Lehman's, Bear Stearns. It's nothing against Mel and Co., it's just are they doing the right thing. When the SIRI was on the brink they did little to cut the expenditures, especially on high price talent and some of their fees. This tells everyone they were not willing to sacrifice for the survival of SIRI. The play with Malone fell right into the category of leverage. In otherwords, how was SIRI going to pay Malone. The leverage play as we now see might be for Liberty to sell their stake, less than actual market value, and walk away with a bundle. The problem is that, if SIRI can not buy the stake back, then Malone could sell to another investor who is only interested in the leverage investment play again and not sat rad. They just buy the stake based on the assets and values and when the time comes they will sell their stake and so on, and so on. They have no interest in sat rad, just the leverage play. I mentioned in a previous blog the money game is outside the actual sat rad business. They will only want to protect their investment not the sat rad product.
Again I am only offering views and don't know concretely what might happen. I bring it to the blog to open and broaden a discussion and read others views with out animous.