mgcolin

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

No, I don't think "there is the political will and ability to switch
> our entire nation's gasoline and diesel infrastructure to natural
> gas in 5 years". That is not what I said.

I said that with $150+ oil, and with that price deemed sustainable and going higher by the market, NG could become a significant contributor to transportation within 5 years, and there will be other alternatives that will come into play including oil that is more expensive to recover. Brazil is in the midst of making NG a significant contributor as a transport fuel, and 5 years ago they were nowhere with NG.

Peak oil may be correct, but the whole point is that there are substitutes (including efficiency and conservation) that come into play at various price levels. Sure there will be pain, just as there was pain when oil was deemed no longer viable as an electricity generating fuel and power plants switched to NG and coal.

I agree with you - the US is a basket case, the future is terribly bleak for a million reasons. But people are not going to let society completely collapse because cheap oil is gone.

And what is your point on Pickens? This wind farm power transmission issue has nothing to do with the viability of using NG as a transportation fuel. His plan had two initiatives, one of which he failed on - the wind part. If oil were still $150 and he weren't so old, I think he'd be working harder on the transmission issue.

Pickens had one plan, a shot. His plan didn't work out - so your point is that the game is over and we're doomed? It will take 500 plans like his, and a combination of them will result in a solution that might not provide dirt cheap energy like oil did, but society is NOT going to collapse because we burned through one source of cheap energy. Gas is already double the US price in Europe, they survive.


On Jul 17 08:32 AM James Quinn wrote:

> Do you really think there is the political will and ability to switch
> our entire nation's gasoline and diesel infrastructure to natural
> gas in 5 years. Pickens wanted to build the windfarms to supply the
> energy previously supplied by NG so that our nation's trucking fleets
> could be converted to NG. No way to get the wind farm electricity
> to the grid. You can't poo poo these small details away. Do you know
> what it would cost to convert every car, truck, and gas station in
> America to NG? Who pays for the conversion? Frankly, your credibility
> is called into question.
>
> I