mgcolin

Can a Stock Market Meltdown Happen from Here?

I predict two more quarters of really ugly underlying earnings from non-levered, well managed, non-financial, global companies will really freak people out.

Then everyone will be talking about the macros the uber-bears keep touting:

$50 trillion in Social Security/Medicare Liability
Aggregate debt is 3.5X US GDP
70% of the US Economy is Consumer Spending
Baby Boomers Retiring, new generation is Eco - killing consumption
See Japan, Germany, Scandinavia
Decent Housing and comm'l real estate still needs to drop 30%+
Banks are insolvent whether people want to admit it or not
It's worse than the depression for the US

So I think Stocks are going to way overshoot down to 6X trailing 10 yr earnings< around this 450 level.

Then it will be an epic buying opportunity..because the numbers will really improve for the real companies in Q4 reporting (once the shock is lapped), mid Feb 2010, and the market will double (or more) in the following year.