mgcolin

Dendreon: Charting the Course to Big Profits

Right - the do-nothing treatements like Provenge wouldn't exist - and people with terminal prostate cancer would die 4 months earlier.

But the common sense option of not paying for these marginally efficacious would save society BILLIONS...those 4 months are not worth the cost to insurance companies or the government.

If people want to pay $50K out of their own pockets for an extra 4 months they can, but the government should not be in that business.

And yes without the government and insurance companies as a customer, researchers would have to develop something with a better cost/benefit relationship.

Dendreon Troubles Beyond Provenge Test

DNDN is a cult stock and obviously the believers are very passionate about it and hate anyone who challenges the cult. But until I see some data from real physicians about how frequently and in what circumstances they will prescribe the treatment, learn whether insurance companies will pay for it, and know more about the manufacturing process and expense of marketing Provenge, I think the bulls are getting WAY ahead of themselves.

Even if FDA grudgingly approves Provenge, it is a long, long way from an FDA approval to a multi-hundred million dollar drug. The road is especially long when something totally challenges the medical establishment.

My bet is there are many disappointing quarters ahead with the massive expectations that will come with a $1B+ valuation. If it does get approved and runs to $40 or whatever the longs think it will, there will likely be a great short opportunity.