mgcolin

Why Jim Rogers and Robert Shiller Aren't Buying U.S. Stocks Yet

Not only are stocks not nearly cheap enough yet, the fundamentals for the US economy are a disaster. Not to say some companies won't do well (especially multi-nationals with strong brands who benefit from weak dollar) but US equities overall have little or no value.

The Fed can delay the inevitable for awhile, but with no long-term real growth or job creation, the ponzi scheme will collapse eventually. The US is finished as an economic power. Our economy is the equivalent of General Motors.

--- Aggregate Debt is 3.5X GDP, highest in history, worse than '29
--- Ugly Demographics; Boomers aging from productive consumers to overweight leeches, young people are rightly hopeless and angry, their futures have been stolen.
--- Consumer spending is 70% of the economy, service spending is easy to curtail and Healthcare system is a disaster, it's counted in GDP but doesn't create any value.
--- $50 trillion present value of medicare and social security liability
--- Housing must drop 40% further in many places just to get back to 1998 levels
--- Banks are insolvent zombies - see Japan, and the Fed can only prop things up for so long
--- All this means US GDP will be flat in real terms for next 20 years...how eager will foreigners be to buy our debt with zero real growth?