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  • Weekly Indicators: A Siberian Chill To Coincident Indicators Edition  [View article]
    You might like to look at the daily charts on scrap.net.
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Peek Inside ECRI's Black Box  [View article]
    Readers might want to refer "Beating the Business Cycle" by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, page 142. He suggests that the average lead time at cyclical peaks is 10 months. My own calculations suggest that late Q1 or Q2 is the most probable time for a recession in 2012. On the same page he says " lead times can vary."
    Chapter 8 is worth reading in it's entirety.

    Interested parties my also want to read "Leading Indicators for the 1990s" by Geoffrey Moore-Chapter 9-Long-Leading and Short-Leading Indexes.
    Dec 15, 2011. 06:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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