cubanstockpicker

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto: Not Yet a Bargain

Couldnt agree more, howver, you did not mention the whole problem with RTP in that they still have a ticker on thier 39 billion as you mentioned ill fated buying of Alcan. They are due to pay 9 bill as we all know and have around 6 bill in credit facilities. If the demand issue slows more, then how will they produce enough to pay without dilution or assets sales? I like BHP though at anywhere in the 30's.

Banks: Can They Rally for More Than a Week

Markets thaw? Does anyone know what that means? It only menas the banks have so many underperforming loans that they have no money to lend for fear of the ones that havent fallen yet due to non payment. Oh more bad news, foreclosures are now coming in because of unempolyment, talk about feeding on itself

Observations on the Current Market Rally

sell on the strength and buy on the weakness, translation, let the bears in and ravage the Markets or the bulls wont come in. now bulls are coming in. Neagtive news is now piling up but being ignored for vague good news.
Ex. "I have cancer, but I had a V8 today and I feel a whole lot better"

Toxic Assets: Facts, Lies and Hype

I will start using a google measuring tool to track stock performance? What am I not to be fooled about. Toxic asset and c in a sentence will filter out every other article that is not about toxic assets in relation to C, C as in the ticker, not the measurement for the speed of light I get in quick google search results

Best Banks in Developed Markets, 2009

STD bought ABN Amro, are you nuts? HSBC got into the mortgage mess really late and loved the ugly deals, bnecause they had been wanting to play and did at the peak. Again I ask, are you nuts?

Debt Keeps Weighing Down Rio Tinto

Yank, BHP was more than happy to walk away from that Deal. I wonder what a cash full company would do when a cash strapped company gets torn apart? Hmm I am guessing it will go in vulture mode. If a company has to be cutting back during lean times, that is not the company to buy. Buy the one making the trough purchases

Debt Keeps Weighing Down Rio Tinto

RTP is sitting on 39 billion in debt for purschasing Alcan and note this, THE 2nd LArgest aluminum manufactrurer.

How much is the biggest worth on market cap? Alcoa is worth 4.93 billion and is the largest, hmmm someone has egg on their face for that dumb idea. I wrote a few months back to Cannacord Adams managing partner after he upgraded to a buy and this is what he had to say after warning him on the impending bear run on this stock.
ME: Mr. Hackett,

I am writing to you about your recent analysis to put a buy rating on RTP. This concerns me because your Ebitda is based on previous years' performance.
I don't think RTP can keep its market cap and as a consequence may be forced to sell assets at a discount. ultimately they may also either need to default on their October 2009 payment of 9 billion or sell a stock offering, diluting shareholder value."

As any cocky financial analyst would respond:
EBITDA is for 2009. And guess what – I see the market every day and I know metal prices have fallen.
I want his job, making stupid decisions and getting paid for it

Nationalization: Is It Inevitable?

Enourmous difference between housing stocks and bank stocks, although one is needs the other, it was too much housing that created the problem. The banks have multiple income streams and are moving their product daily. I am surprised how come Homebuilders havent been nationalized, be it that they created this mess with overbuilding and not properly planning the allocation of continued housing growth.

Peter, the banks are not getting nationalized, especially not the big banks maybe C. Worst case scenario, the mortgages get bought up off the banks sheets with a toxic loan sponge and let it sit in a government holding company while the reorganize/write down the bad debt. The problem will be how many more homeowners will want that special treatment.

This is not as negative to the banks going forward as it is to the homebuilders.

Why Banks Write Down but Don't Sell Subprime Loans

"Assuming 28% default rates (and that all 28% default right away), that basket of mortgages is worth 79 cents on the dollar."

You haven't accounted for depreciation and lost value on these assets.
Plus the "crystallization" you refer to will become cemented when the bank goes through purging the house at a 50% of the original loan

America Frets About the Economy as China Buys 'Stuff'

Maybe we should start setting up huge factories and start manufacturing any trinket for pennies and export to China with a big made in USA sticker

Top Two Canadian Energy Stocks

Jim and they will contune down. How can Kurt keep a buy rating on COSWF?
Oil sands? How does Mcdepp work? YOU CANNOT PUMP OIL AT A LOSS AND EXPECT TO MAKE IT UP IN VOLUME.
Why does everyone have this belief that oil copmpanies are a safe bet, their main product just lost 2/3's of its value with no bullish reasons in sight, especially with the exodus of cash from investors.
Leverage got us 147.00, deleveraging will keep us at 30.00

Jimbo sell your canadian oil sands. It will be a long time when these companies make a profit.

US Bancorp: The Other Big Bank with Big Problems

The problem with USB is not a problem at all. They are trying to take the few mortgages they do have off the balance books. Billy, I dont see one location where you are pointing to level 1 through 3 assets.

BTW, US Bank was told, not asked, to participate in the program, which is a Darwinian attempt to “synthesize” weaker banks into stronger banks through ... As of now, I pi cked USB to outperform, (Disclosure)

Rating the Top 12 U.S. Banks - From Hidden Gems to Zombies

Could not agree with you more. I like the quiet non news coming from USB, yes thay have had a loss, but I dont remember them either as a lender or subsidiary in doing Subprime. As a contrast Lehman had 3 subprime lenders it acquired or put up as a front. BNC, Resmae, Aurora

Why Capital Structure of Mining Companies Matters

Couldnt agree with you more. I used my real estate experience to figure out Rio was going down a very tough road. If you buy at the peak, then get a 50% drop in all your prices does not bode well for any company. I guess thats why RTP has been walking around with a turned over hat in their hands.

Cramer's Mad Money -10 Reasons the Economy Is Not So Bad (2/6/09)

This is a buyers market, I want to see a seller try and pull that one off in this market. I am telling sellers what my clients are going to pay them and they willingly obey.


On Feb 08 08:58 AM jimocarroll wrote:

> > Housing sales are rising where the prices are low. In addition,
> the $15,000 tax credit for homebuyers might help spark a housing
> recovery.
>
> Please excuse my cynicism, but I see the net effect of this "tax
> credit" as increasing the asking price of homes currently on the
> market by about $15,000 each.