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mykie

mykie
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]
    Great job, Jeff and thanks.
    Apr 20 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Censorship And The Chinese Economy: Baidu's Greatest Assets [View article]
    Hello Heights Capital,

    Thanks for the thorough write up and the compelling graphs.

    I wonder if you have any comments regarding the upcoming WEIBO IPO and what that will do to BIDU's share price?

    Also, today, BIDU broke through the bottom line of your highway up. Any new comments on that I mean, does that suggest a different technical picture?
    Thanks,
    Apr 8 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Dividend And Net Asset Value Sustainability Analysis (Post Fiscal Q2 2014 Earnings) - Part 2 [View article]
    "You don't earn 12% in a 2.75% UST world without vaporizing principal (NAV) through credit losses. The "investees" of PSEC are desperate and have high probability for default"

    This on the heels of a well thought out, researched opinion by an experienced CPA. Then, using your logic, all these BDC's are in the same boat, no matter their history? I'm not being critical but trying to learn.

    I do have reservations about PSEC's management decisions. Opposite JMKDog's belief, I do think they would convert to equity in order to avoid putting a loan into non-accrual. My guess is, if not to avoid condemnation in his stock price, to at least not cause the company higher borrowing rates.

    I also think they should not be taking equity positions as lightly as I believe they do since they are not operators. What bothers me about equity conversions, especially in light of a company's rapidly bad performance, is that PSEC thinks they can do what the operators have not been able to do. That position will prove to be either, 1. A clear avoidance of being classified non accrual, or, 2. Clear display of arrogance by thinking they can operate their way out of a bad decision. I guess time will tell.

    Thus the need to buy at BV and watch closely but with this I agree, it could become a trap if you are not careful but for 12%, I'll be careful and I only have to be OK for several months to lower my break even down to the lowest cost they have sold for. Also, if they stop growing then again, those bad loans as a percentage of the total, could bring them down. Let's hope they continue to grow and do deals.

    PS Cautiously long PSEC and watching it closely.
    Apr 8 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Dividend And Net Asset Value Sustainability Analysis (Post Fiscal Q2 2014 Earnings) - Part 2 [View article]
    Scott,

    Great job, remarkable really. I own PSEC and TCAP. Though I own PSEC at 10.78, I worry a bit about PSEC's payout ratio. I also recently bought some more TCAP to balance that fear.

    I'm also looking at the leader, MAIN for a purchase though they have quite a premium over bv, slightly higher than TCAP's.

    Is PSEC the only BDC that you own and if so, how do you balance that risk within your portfolio?
    Thanks again for a great article and all the hard to scratch together details.
    Mykie
    Apr 7 02:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tupperware Brands The Perfect Dividend Growth Stock For Retirement Portfolios? [View article]
    Thanks Chuck,

    Great article and a stock to own with a great future. I think waiting for earnings is also a good idea. But then, it's jump on it anyway since the long term prospects for TUP are excellent.
    Mykie
    Apr 6 02:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Identify Good Stocks, Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks Ray for an illuminating article. I am just starting my own analysis process on the stocks I buy and I have a question.

    If I didn't want to buy a subscription - yet - for those beautiful, time saving and decision enhancing graphs, how else would I generate the info necessary to create the needed stats and ratios?
    Thanks again,
    Mykie
    Apr 3 09:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 2 High-Yield Picks Could Supercharge Your Portfolio With Dividends And Capital Appreciation [View article]
    Hi Bullishon...,

    You might want to also check out TCAP. I have held that one for quite a while. It only pays 8% or so but during the 08/09 recession, it continued paying out a dividend when all others had stopped and has a similarly low payout ratio (below 70 I believe).

    I bought PSEC at 10.78 which is very close to book value. I figured if I can generate some months of dividends before their performance lags, then I am protected on the downside to about Book value (10.71). Should interest disrupt their game plan, out I go with either a decent return (depending upon how long I can collect 1% per month) or a break even.

    Buying at book value mitigates the inherent risk with BDC's. If I buy around BV and the longer I own the stock, assuming stats stay about the same, the less risk I have and more income I generate. If anyone says it doesn't matter when you jump in as long as you are earning 12%, I'd say that's shortsighted.

    Hi Robin,
    If they have put themselves into a precarious position and something untoward happens, like an interest rate blip up or several of the riskier deals belly flopping at the same time, there goes your dividend and maybe investment (if you bought above BV) and there goes any accumulated profits from the dividends. Further, the next time they try to grow out of their problems, they'll face higher borrowing costs. That is a ever steepening spiral heading downward.

    With even mentioning that high payout ratio, I would guess this author is not an investor here, but rather, selling an idea, no matter the consequences.

    Will he answer?
    Apr 3 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 2 High-Yield Picks Could Supercharge Your Portfolio With Dividends And Capital Appreciation [View article]
    I don't understand how this company, HRZN, can continue paying the dividend with a 373% pay out ratio. PSEC is at about 120% but with growth should be OK but how will HRZN continue to cover it's payout?

    Educate me please.
    Apr 3 03:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Berkshire Hathaway Really Worth? A Comprehensive Look [View article]
    Thanks for your article, which was most impressive.

    I'm an owner of BRB B and at $109 per share which I find to be such a bargain. I also think as long as I don't panic when Mr. Buffet releases the reins, the stock will do very very well, whether by staying as is or by moving ahead. Any dips below 1.2 times BV are a buy.

    Thanks again,
    Mykie
    Mar 28 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Looks To Strengthen Its Balance Sheet And Finds A Solution For Big Oil And Gas [View article]
    Hi Toasty,
    Good post! Thanks,

    Does anyone know anything about the management of this company? I am arriving late at the party but at this price, it looks like an auspicious time to jump in. Most of what happens in the future depends upon the strength of the management team yet, so far, I have heard nothing about them. I consider that strange but maybe they have already been vetted by you guys. Please aim me to anything that speaks to management's commitment, expertise and transparency.
    Most gracias
    Mike
    Mar 26 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The BDC Portion Of My Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Div Sleuth for an informative article and robust commentary, supported by your continued presence.

    I read the Galler articles and several others and from the perspective of a buy and hold stock buyer, I didn't appreciate what looked like obfuscation of bad loans; however, reading that this is somewhat normal for BDC's and having just decided to increase the income portion for my portfolio, I bought some PSEC with the intention of watching it closely.

    So now I own a small position in PSEC and a similar position in TCAP that I bought years ago.

    Keep me posted!
    Thanks again,
    Mykie
    Mar 18 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Yellen Takes The Stage [View article]
    Hi Jeff and thanks for another good write up.

    Mike
    Mar 16 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting Your Equity Portfolio For Less - Part XI [View article]
    Thanks K202,

    I thought your writing was clear and your thesis very astute. In fact, I will read the balance of your articles and try to do this myself since I also believe we are overdue a correction and I just hate to watch all those prices rolling up and down go to waste when there's money to be made.
    Mykie
    Mar 15 05:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: Meet NMMB Holdings [View article]
    Hi Rip,

    I have no position in PSEC nor NICK but wish to comment for the sake of clarity.

    "If I read this correctly, PSEC provided around $32MM in funding for NMMB, which accounts for less than 1% of it's portfolio.

    Why waste everyone's time over it?"

    This is one of the author's main points, viz., that by growing rapidly, they can dwarf the size of bad loans, which disguises their true performance. That should tell you that once growth stops, for whatever reason, the share of bad loans will grow, so the size of the write off is only germane if the growth continues on indefinitely. So looking at their judgement, at the time of the loan, in less than a year this loan was down the drain and it represented close to 3% of their portfolio. In a stagnant or falling acquisition mode (say rising interest rates), non performing loans will consume a larger portion of the assets.

    Another important issue is, 1. How can they crow repeatedly that they don't have any non accrual loans when this type of maneuvering (change the title of a loan to something else just before it hits the zero pile), seems to be about focusing on not having non accrual loans rather than not initiating them in the first place; and 2. How can you, in clear conscience, say this company has not had a non accruing loan? It reminds me of the investigation of President Clinton's wayward sex act; "Define sex for me." It just seems misleading. The issue is the quality of their loans not putting a different label on their losses.

    I think this author is doing all PSEC owners a great service. Certainly you can do as you wish with your stock, but isn't it better that you know what you are holding and where the risks might pop up?

    Don't shoot the messenger.

    PS in deference to not knowing how BDC's work, maybe they have to hide their non accrual loans in order to attract cheap investment money, but buddy, that means your money too is somewhat in the dark.
    Mar 6 05:13 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine Exploration And The SS Central America [View instapost]
    Thanks GRA,

    Nice write up and I'm in for the ride already, having not been shaken out by the shorts who, it looks like, will take it in the shorts very soon. :_)
    Mar 5 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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