Gold: The Fate That Awaits Once Fed Stimulus Ends [View article]
That's true now imagine how much it would happen if there was no threat of government regulation. We've been there and done that back in the early 20th century and before. So I'm for regulation that is intelligent. Possible?
At 2% return, I am still below inflation. Maybe a fund that takes a bit more risk, has a bit higher expense ratio and a higher turnover would be a better bet (of course with good, proven management in place)? Like DWX or DVW, 6.3% and 3.3% respectively. How would those two compare in risk with VIG?
Even if you took a high flyer (Like Ray Dalio has done) with NLY & BCE 13.40% and 5.30% respectively, and sold out after 8 Months.....might be worth the effort. Or maybe we wait until VIG sucks air in the next downdraft and try to buy it at some yield over nominal inflation.
I find this another bit of useful info when deciding whether this is a trap or buying opportunity.....not quite there yet so I buy with the utmost of caution.
Blott, You are right on and yes he is buying time and in his role I believe that is about all he can do that he hasn't already done.
It's really brilliant that he has maneuvered and kept the rates low and created operation twist to get the long end down lower. Because then the debt becomes (in my mind), only the interest, not the principal. As long as he can continue to roll over those term bonds, the debt will start to disappear through paying back with cheaper dollars and higher tax take from private growth/consumption. What is negatively called kicking the can down the road is in fact the only smart move to make until the private sector can de-lever and catch afire.
I'm not worried about BB giving control back to the private sector. His job will be then so much easier. The system is cumbersome and slow but so far, it is working (versus Europe). After the fire is subdued we can get to work on how the hell we got into this mess in the first place. We gotta eat that elephant one bite at a time.
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
WMARKW...I don't understand, how can an eventually depreciating dollar and inflation plus growth make exisiting debt more expensive? The banking community borrows at a cheap rate and lends at an almost guaranteed profit. This is done to help the banks recapitalize and add liquidity to the system. Yes, the savers get upset but that's for now during this ruinous state of affairs. The medicine doesn't taste that good but it's the right prescription.
A Surprise Ending For The European Drama? [View article]
Thanks again, Jeff,
I believe Euro land made a big mistake not having a Helicopter Ben at the controls but now realizes that mistake and will improve performance there, dragging out indefinitely the pay back debt scenario, as we are doing right here in the USA, with very low interest rates and a depreciating currency.
I read a casual comment somewhere that the Germans are working on a plan to help Spanish bond sales. Does anyone have information about this?
What Happens To Precious Metals And Bank Stocks In A Post-Euro World? [View article]
Thanks Avery, another valuable article.
Why do you say when Euro land starts printing there will be inflation? Are you suggesting it will be worse somehow than the inflation we have at home but which appears to me to be quite controllable?
And do you know when the impending German decision regarding helping Spain's borrowing needs will be announced?
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
If you look at the true debt being only the interest owed, not the principal, you will see why inflation will stay under wraps. If the USA only pays the interest on debt and eventually via mild inflation, growth and other tactics, the debt will eventually evanesce and the day has been saved. That's the path we are on.
So operation twist is done so that the government can roll over their debt into longer term debt and still at lower interest rates. Brilliant as far as I am concerned since they have already figured out the final resolution to this debt bubble is going to take longer than 10 years. You can nay say the Central Bank's efforts all you want but they are smart and know what they are doing. Look at what austerity is doing to Europe. When Europe goes down the drain, it will be time to back the truck up for USA stocks and I'm building my list now.
Plus to the commentor who believes BO is not getting back in, I have $1,000 that says he will but you have to give me odds.
Great article, thanks. I could see it was a lot of hard work and done assiduously.
If I were to pick between the two, I'd pick STD, not BBVA. I am contemplating an investment in STD but need to quantify the risk better and you have done a superb job.
But isn't the biggest risk here with the fate of the Euro, not with it's banking operations? I'm very anxious to hear about the German plan for Spain. Can you tell me where to go to read up on that?
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
Airlarr, This can't happen. Since the world is screwed starting in Europe, and there's lots of money floating around, buying US product will continue and that will keep the dollar strong, at least until Europe's problems are resolved and then Japan. Besides on the list of lowest bond returns, the USA is 10th and is still the strongest or at least big enough to take all the money you want to throw our way. Remember the Fed wants some inflation to help the de-leverage process. That's their end game. No one sees inflation coming for quite some time though there are lots of warnings.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Bernanke's Next Move [View article]
I disagree Tack. There's been little investment in plant and equipment due to lack of demand. As a consumer I could care less that the government is watching the banks (who certainly need watching) to decide if I want to spend or not.
And if Madoff went to prison why shouldn't others? You can't say the government didn't do it's job guarding the hen house and then when it tries to do it's job say it's needless interference. That's just a mimicked, one line throw away from a political party without any thought or analysis behind it. From a business perspective why expand if you are not selling up to capacity and in fact, orders are probably slowing down, at least globally, due to China and Europe's slowdown? I guess you can blame it on Obama if you like but it's a mal focus. You seem to be following a conventional talking heads philosophy, taken at face value. Dalio, Buffet and Soros seem to think differently of the role government has played.
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
I just saw a list of government yields on 10 year bonds and the USA comes in 10th place from the lowest which is Switzerland at .48%. So my guess is we can go lower and probably will but I'd love to hear Cullen's comments on this since I am pondering a TBT purchase now that we are at a 5 year low for that ETF. Any comments on TBT as a now investment?
Stocks: Don't Hold Your Breath For More Fed Stimulus [View article]
Nice info, Eric, thanks and I agree. If there's any QE coming it will be closer to election time and in more dire circumstances than now. One would want the juice to be turned on closer to the big event and not turned on if not needed....that dictates waiting. I'm glad Eric thinks rationally and writes coolly. Now let's see if he's right.
Gold: The Fate That Awaits Once Fed Stimulus Ends [View article]
S&P's Dividend ETF Pick [View article]
Even if you took a high flyer (Like Ray Dalio has done) with NLY & BCE 13.40% and 5.30% respectively, and sold out after 8 Months.....might be worth the effort. Or maybe we wait until VIG sucks air in the next downdraft and try to buy it at some yield over nominal inflation.
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
Buffett's Favorite Valuation Metric Goes Bullish [View article]
I find this another bit of useful info when deciding whether this is a trap or buying opportunity.....not quite there yet so I buy with the utmost of caution.
Inflation Update [View article]
You are right on and yes he is buying time and in his role I believe that is about all he can do that he hasn't already done.
It's really brilliant that he has maneuvered and kept the rates low and created operation twist to get the long end down lower. Because then the debt becomes (in my mind), only the interest, not the principal. As long as he can continue to roll over those term bonds, the debt will start to disappear through paying back with cheaper dollars and higher tax take from private growth/consumption. What is negatively called kicking the can down the road is in fact the only smart move to make until the private sector can de-lever and catch afire.
I'm not worried about BB giving control back to the private sector. His job will be then so much easier. The system is cumbersome and slow but so far, it is working (versus Europe). After the fire is subdued we can get to work on how the hell we got into this mess in the first place. We gotta eat that elephant one bite at a time.
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
A Surprise Ending For The European Drama? [View article]
I believe Euro land made a big mistake not having a Helicopter Ben at the controls but now realizes that mistake and will improve performance there, dragging out indefinitely the pay back debt scenario, as we are doing right here in the USA, with very low interest rates and a depreciating currency.
I read a casual comment somewhere that the Germans are working on a plan to help Spanish bond sales. Does anyone have information about this?
What Happens To Precious Metals And Bank Stocks In A Post-Euro World? [View article]
Why do you say when Euro land starts printing there will be inflation? Are you suggesting it will be worse somehow than the inflation we have at home but which appears to me to be quite controllable?
And do you know when the impending German decision regarding helping Spain's borrowing needs will be announced?
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
So operation twist is done so that the government can roll over their debt into longer term debt and still at lower interest rates. Brilliant as far as I am concerned since they have already figured out the final resolution to this debt bubble is going to take longer than 10 years. You can nay say the Central Bank's efforts all you want but they are smart and know what they are doing. Look at what austerity is doing to Europe. When Europe goes down the drain, it will be time to back the truck up for USA stocks and I'm building my list now.
Plus to the commentor who believes BO is not getting back in, I have $1,000 that says he will but you have to give me odds.
Spain's Economic Turmoil Camouflages BBVA's True Potential [View article]
If I were to pick between the two, I'd pick STD, not BBVA. I am contemplating an investment in STD but need to quantify the risk better and you have done a superb job.
But isn't the biggest risk here with the fate of the Euro, not with it's banking operations? I'm very anxious to hear about the German plan for Spain. Can you tell me where to go to read up on that?
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Bernanke's Next Move [View article]
And if Madoff went to prison why shouldn't others? You can't say the government didn't do it's job guarding the hen house and then when it tries to do it's job say it's needless interference. That's just a mimicked, one line throw away from a political party without any thought or analysis behind it. From a business perspective why expand if you are not selling up to capacity and in fact, orders are probably slowing down, at least globally, due to China and Europe's slowdown? I guess you can blame it on Obama if you like but it's a mal focus. You seem to be following a conventional talking heads philosophy, taken at face value. Dalio, Buffet and Soros seem to think differently of the role government has played.
The Dreaded Bond Vigilantes Are Coming [View article]
Stocks: Don't Hold Your Breath For More Fed Stimulus [View article]