Tructor

Why There Will Be No Recovery and Markets Will Trend Lower

Corson is correct and courageous to say what politicians won't. One scenario is that China's rural "have-nots" will revolt against the increasing disparity between their poverty and the coastal-industrial boom regions. The bloodbath will be of biblical proportions, forcing internal compromise, disrupting the export payments system. Or, the US will be forced to repudiate external debt... with horrendous consequences. It's pretty clear the next bubble will be "China-related".


On Sep 29 07:08 AM bluesky123 wrote:

> I'm optimistic the US will reduce its trade deficit by transitioning
> commercial vehicles to run on US natural gas and reduce oil imports.
> Oil is one of the largest components of US imports. Some US power
> plants are also transitioning to natural gas. We will be producing
> more power domestically as alt energy ramps up. Indeed US electricity
> consumption is declining, not increasing.
>
> On the national debt front, US hedge fund advisor Hennessee Group
> produced a startling table of debt to GDP this year. Note that Ireland,
> UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland and Iceland all have
> ratios significantly higher than the US. Iceland and Ireland have
> debt to GDP ratios 9 times that of the US. Switzerland and the UK
> have debt to GDP ratios 4 times that of the US.
>
> www.hennesseegroup.com...
>
> China's population has a savings rate of 40%. Good luck turning that
> into a consumption society when there are thus far no social program
> safety nets. In China the consumer provides for their own health
> care, retirement etc. Those consumers aren't about to go wild in
> the shops at any point in the near future, creating a sustainable
> domestic Chinese economy. The world's exporting countries who have
> relied on the US consumer are potentially at greater risk than has
> been discussed in the media thus far.
>
> Our situation in the US is a mess. We have to save, cut costs and
> innovate like heck to produce growth. However, I look around at a
> lot of the rest of the developed world, and they have their own equally
> significant financial mess.