cryingwolf

16 Comments

    • What is Hank Paulson Thinking? [view article]
      It may go down in history that the Ben-Hank duo cried wolf too late to get help. They pumped $600 B into the market yesterday and now have routine injections of billions again and again. This is not sustainable. This is crisis after crisis. Why don't we get it and why doesn't Congress who have no sense of economics or banking? Banks have imploded. Investment banks are dodos. We are too deep to pull out of this wierd recession without lots of fiscal and monetary help. HELP! Sep 30 11:29 AM
    • Puts Instead of Shorts? Today's Activity [view article]
      I believe there was large scale algorithmic shorting. This implies that computers do the trading and the result is a waterfall of falling share prices.

      So if a company is attacked the attacker is likely to be a swarm of computers that take over the market. I believe this should be researched and perhaps limited by the regulators.

      I also believe that a lot of the exaggerated trading was becaause of quadruple trading as was in March this year.       Sep 20 11:00 AM
    • What Will Fannie / Freddie Mean for Monday? [view article]
      User 257564 There is no way to value the common shares of FRE and FNM. The change in shareholder rights is -100%...nonexistent. So the embalmed mummy stocks will have value as long as the market has some interest in driving by the museum pieces and play out the horror film.

      Then again the mummy stocks may come back as mummies return. They may await the return of the scorpion king..now at an undisclosed location or perhaps in the haunted Treasury building.       Sep 07 11:09 PM
    • Energy Stocks Are Too Cheap to Ignore - Barron's [view article]
      Did you see the seeming lack of reaction by oil prices and commodities to the Russia-Georgia violence? What must be the reason is the ongoing unwinding of hedges of oil to finance. We are watching the oil bears take control.This being options week we will see more of it. Once it is over I believe oil stocks will reflect the risk from the Russian bear and go back up some. Next week it will be the Russian bear taking over from the oil bears. Aug 11 06:07 PM
    • Three Rolling Correlations in the Current Market [view article]
      Friday's rally was positioning for options week. Next week is options expiration. Aug 10 01:42 PM
    • Has Garmin Lost Its Direction? [view article]
      How would Garmin disbelievers like to ride in a plane, train, car, truck where the driver peers into a phone gps while driving and talking? Does not seem like a safe idea. This is not a one trick pony. Jul 31 11:34 PM
    • Microsoft Figured We'd All Be on Vista by Now [view article]
      I seem to be the exception. I love Microsoft Vista on my Sony Vaio digital media center laptop. It is seamless and fast. My office laptop is XP based and slower and needs more work to install hardware than Vista. All I did was buy a new printer as the 13 year old brother could not be adapted. May 12 11:03 AM
    • Garmin Hits New Lows, Despite Booming GPS Biz [view article]
      S&P rates GRMN a FIVE STAR stock with a 12 month target of $105. I'm underwater in this stock at this time but the risks have been priced in. I look for recovery going forward. Apr 02 10:56 AM
    • The Fed: On the Cusp of Moral Hazard [view article]
      MrLagom

      I was unable to find the SEC commission filing you mention. Could you give us a little more detail: type of filing and date perhaps.

      Also the telegraph link is confusing. More detail please.       Mar 24 06:44 PM
    • The Fed: On the Cusp of Moral Hazard [view article]
      This is not compassionate conservatism anymore. It is compassionate capitalism because a pure market failure is not palatable to this administration at this time of election year survivorship.

      Why JPM and why Bear? Bear's investors would have done better in chapter 11 and let the market set the price for exiting bankcruptcy. Compassionate capitalism is putting the interests of political survivorship or powerful interests survivorship ahead of economic market survivorship.

      Instead of remaining a lender of last resort, the Fed in this move and almost all other moves has become the lender of compassionate resort. In doing so it has raised all these questions of adverse selection and moral hazard.

      We are beginning to look more like 'old Europe' it is not?

       Mar 24 12:01 PM
    • Paul Krugman Wonders If He Is Dumb. I Say: "No!!" [view article]
      Gordon, enjoyed the 'behind the scenes' reasoning. Intentional or not, this scheme or not, my own historical data analysis has shown the oil prices go up the first 18 of 24 months to national elections and down in the last six months. So I'm waiting for June for the real downtrend in commodity prices to get into gear and the dollar to look healthy.

      Mar 21 03:26 PM
    • Alan Greenspan Loses His Mind [view article]
      Why blame Greenspan and the Fed? When the twin Towers fell and economic activity went into freeze mode, the Fed came through and restarted the economy. That single action makes having the Fed worth while.

      If you are looking to blame anyone blame the 9/11 terrorists who hurt the economy (Bin Laden was an economics student ) and led us into the inflationary Iraq war. The Five deferment Dick and Dubya show shares a lot of the blame for prolonging the inflationary spiral. Greenspan's Fed did the patriotic thing and the right thing at the time.

      The Fed's problem is one of moral hazard. They can lend the money but cannot overcome the greed and other deadly sins of the borrowers. They cannot change human nature. That is not the business of the Fed.

      It is unfair of Kedrosky and others to blame one single individual. What pray did any of these critics do when the economy froze in 2001?       Mar 21 02:44 PM
    • Financial Entertainment TV Buries Itself with Disinformation [view article]
      What we see on CNBC and financial TV channels is the sell side of the business. So obviously we get a delivery channel for all types of financial products. It is rarely that the buy side folks show up. When they do they are rather circumspect.

      I have never seen what happened to investors who listen to CNBC etc and lost or made mistakes based on what they heard/saw. Why not have a few minutes of time for the dreamers, losers, winners and strivers all? Their experiences are valid and true. Of course for a variety of reasons, investor experiences will never make it to the TV channels.

      Seeking alpha and written analysis gives one a chance to evaluate the information and make decisions to research or reject the ideas. God forbid we get a seeking alpha internet channel!!       Mar 21 02:19 PM
    • Clinton and Obama: Hedge Fund Killers [view article]
      Are there records that private equity / hedge funds have created more jobs in the companies they have taken private? Or have they at least created more jobs in the hedge fund industry? Layoffs versus jobs data can resolve the issue of job creation. Perhaps there is a case for them by showing they kept jobs in the USA and avoided outsourcing. Unless the data argues the opposite.

      If private equity partnerships with SIVs from China and the Mid East take ownership away from US investors there will be a case for the democrats to investigate taxability and national security issues.

      I for believe that Blackstone's CEO Schwarzman overdid the PR stuff that led to the angst regarding the industry.       Jan 11 12:15 PM
    • My Ten Predictions for 2008 [view article]
      Tan. Yours is a very US centric analysis for 2008. We are just 20-25% of the world economy. And we are not alone but deeply connected with the ROW (rest of the world). So here are some trends deliberately optimistic to counter balance the doom and gloom.

      1. As the BRIC countries 'internetize' there is more demand for better quality of life products. The US multinationals such as PG, MCD, KO, PEP, DIS are well capitalized and out there building market share. Profits follow.

      2. The ongoing battle between SIVs and SOVs (Sovereign funds) will be resolved in favor of SOVs in spite of populist sentiments. Banks and the financial sector rise from the dead like the phoenix reborn. C bottoms and races for its place in the sun. Very very BRIC baked!

      3. China's much anticipated coming out Olympics party is a grand success. Its reverberations make steel stocks take off as ROW infrastructure expands.

      4. Smart phones wow ROW! AAPL, RIMM, NOK, VIP... continue the market share battle.

      5. As soy, corn, milk and wheat prices rise, US agriculture linked multinational cos (DE, POT, MON) and agricultural land and water resource prices continue to rise.(Have options on 'em). Wait till banks dump SIVs for SAGGIES! These are structured agri bonds. We may see a Saggie rush supported by SOVs. Better than the deserts. Good tax shelters too.

      6. Arab SQUAK (Saudi Arabia, Quatar, UAE, Kuwait) funds are globalized and increasingly managed by Wall Street and Jewish expertise. Here comes world peace. GS makes a play for DOW Jones membership.

      7. By the end of 2008 we are looking at Africa's commodity and oil wealth and investing in Africa plays. It is coming at us faster than we know.

      8. Yeah solar fun and games continue. This is the tulips in the sun mania. Chinese, US and Canadian solar stocks may parallel the dotcom boom bust. Beware.

      9. Geezer plays in pharmaceuticals, biotech, nutratech and nanotech creep into our portfolios. DNDN, ISRG are some crown jewels.

      10. The drowning home builders become 'demolition builders'. Old polluted rundown homes are torn down and demolition becomes a new source of PROFIT.

      Ah well that was a nice hour spent. I'll take 10% upside next year as the dollar falls another 10%. Thats where the opportunities are for me.



      Dec 29 12:19 PM
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