electric car

Financial Entertainment TV Buries Itself with Disinformation

What we see on CNBC and financial TV channels is the sell side of the business. So obviously we get a delivery channel for all types of financial products. It is rarely that the buy side folks show up. When they do they are rather circumspect.

I have never seen what happened to investors who listen to CNBC etc and lost or made mistakes based on what they heard/saw. Why not have a few minutes of time for the dreamers, losers, winners and strivers all? Their experiences are valid and true. Of course for a variety of reasons, investor experiences will never make it to the TV channels.

Seeking alpha and written analysis gives one a chance to evaluate the information and make decisions to research or reject the ideas. God forbid we get a seeking alpha internet channel!!

Clinton and Obama: Hedge Fund Killers

Are there records that private equity / hedge funds have created more jobs in the companies they have taken private? Or have they at least created more jobs in the hedge fund industry? Layoffs versus jobs data can resolve the issue of job creation. Perhaps there is a case for them by showing they kept jobs in the USA and avoided outsourcing. Unless the data argues the opposite.

If private equity partnerships with SIVs from China and the Mid East take ownership away from US investors there will be a case for the democrats to investigate taxability and national security issues.

I for believe that Blackstone's CEO Schwarzman overdid the PR stuff that led to the angst regarding the industry.

My Ten Predictions for 2008

Tan. Yours is a very US centric analysis for 2008. We are just 20-25% of the world economy. And we are not alone but deeply connected with the ROW (rest of the world). So here are some trends deliberately optimistic to counter balance the doom and gloom.

1. As the BRIC countries 'internetize' there is more demand for better quality of life products. The US multinationals such as PG, MCD, KO, PEP, DIS are well capitalized and out there building market share. Profits follow.

2. The ongoing battle between SIVs and SOVs (Sovereign funds) will be resolved in favor of SOVs in spite of populist sentiments. Banks and the financial sector rise from the dead like the phoenix reborn. C bottoms and races for its place in the sun. Very very BRIC baked!

3. China's much anticipated coming out Olympics party is a grand success. Its reverberations make steel stocks take off as ROW infrastructure expands.

4. Smart phones wow ROW! AAPL, RIMM, NOK, VIP... continue the market share battle.

5. As soy, corn, milk and wheat prices rise, US agriculture linked multinational cos (DE, POT, MON) and agricultural land and water resource prices continue to rise.(Have options on 'em). Wait till banks dump SIVs for SAGGIES! These are structured agri bonds. We may see a Saggie rush supported by SOVs. Better than the deserts. Good tax shelters too.

6. Arab SQUAK (Saudi Arabia, Quatar, UAE, Kuwait) funds are globalized and increasingly managed by Wall Street and Jewish expertise. Here comes world peace. GS makes a play for DOW Jones membership.

7. By the end of 2008 we are looking at Africa's commodity and oil wealth and investing in Africa plays. It is coming at us faster than we know.

8. Yeah solar fun and games continue. This is the tulips in the sun mania. Chinese, US and Canadian solar stocks may parallel the dotcom boom bust. Beware.

9. Geezer plays in pharmaceuticals, biotech, nutratech and nanotech creep into our portfolios. DNDN, ISRG are some crown jewels.

10. The drowning home builders become 'demolition builders'. Old polluted rundown homes are torn down and demolition becomes a new source of PROFIT.

Ah well that was a nice hour spent. I'll take 10% upside next year as the dollar falls another 10%. Thats where the opportunities are for me.

S&P 20-Day Performance by Sector

Thanks very much. Very helpul.