antiquary's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/288058/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/144360-why-macroeconomists-are-particularly-obtuse?source=feed#comment-595723 595723
A bad comparison. What the rich mainly spend their money on is not lifestyle (and let's also point out that many of their main capital luxury purchases, like vacation homes, are resaleable, usually at a profit) but on staying rich or becoming richer. They buy income producing property (tangible and not) and they buy political influence. Live on less than you take in, invest the rest, and when you reach the point at which your day-to-day expenses are paid by investments, your income takes off, so long as your expenses are kept constant. By this, wealth inequality becomes income inequality.

By contrast, poor people, who are often stupider, poorer educated and-- this is key-- more incapable of looking past the immediate, don't have the desire or ability to live on less so as to invest the rest in income producing property. They have emotion, which brings both pride, a quality so manipulable by advertising, and children. And the closer they are to the subsistence level, the more power their employers have over them, for they can't say no. Which means they won't get raises. Their ignorance is, in effect, money in the bank for everyone higher up.

All of which is not to say I'm anti-capitalist. Capitalism as we practice it is the greatest evoker of overall virtue in history. I'm a distributist (see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...). The great G.K. Chesterton said it best: "Too much capitalism does not mean too many capitalists, but too few capitalists." This has to be solved by real teaching of financial education in schools.]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 18:32:26 -0400
A bad comparison. What the rich mainly spend their money on is not lifestyle (and let's also point out that many of their main capital luxury purchases, like vacation homes, are resaleable, usually at a profit) but on staying rich or becoming richer. They buy income producing property (tangible and not) and they buy political influence. Live on less than you take in, invest the rest, and when you reach the point at which your day-to-day expenses are paid by investments, your income takes off, so long as your expenses are kept constant. By this, wealth inequality becomes income inequality.

By contrast, poor people, who are often stupider, poorer educated and-- this is key-- more incapable of looking past the immediate, don't have the desire or ability to live on less so as to invest the rest in income producing property. They have emotion, which brings both pride, a quality so manipulable by advertising, and children. And the closer they are to the subsistence level, the more power their employers have over them, for they can't say no. Which means they won't get raises. Their ignorance is, in effect, money in the bank for everyone higher up.

All of which is not to say I'm anti-capitalist. Capitalism as we practice it is the greatest evoker of overall virtue in history. I'm a distributist (see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...). The great G.K. Chesterton said it best: "Too much capitalism does not mean too many capitalists, but too few capitalists." This has to be solved by real teaching of financial education in schools.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149921-the-fine-line-between-profits-and-theft?source=feed#comment-595693 595693 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 18:15:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142386-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-541445 541445 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 19:32:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139746-a-tale-of-two-economies-u-s-vs-china?source=feed#comment-520521 520521 Wed, 27 May 2009 21:00:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138176-the-virtue-of-the-republic?source=feed#comment-508193 508193
The posit you take as granted is that the ceiling set by the Fed is below a decent return. This is not necessarily true; what a "decent return" is will depend on what the alternatives are in the current economy. The general level of paranoia is not a legitimate factor. I think the way you get banks to lend is by showing them that they're being outcompeted by other people or entities who are lending, even if that has to be the Federal government for a time to prime the pump.]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 10:39:00 -0400
The posit you take as granted is that the ceiling set by the Fed is below a decent return. This is not necessarily true; what a "decent return" is will depend on what the alternatives are in the current economy. The general level of paranoia is not a legitimate factor. I think the way you get banks to lend is by showing them that they're being outcompeted by other people or entities who are lending, even if that has to be the Federal government for a time to prime the pump.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136444-which-vehicle-is-best-for-a-long-bet-on-oil?source=feed#comment-495428 495428
Though as to the "stupidity" of the government in not allowing more domestic production-- despite the offshore possibilities, there just isn't any way to make a significant difference with our own oil reserves. We have no serious untapped fields. ANWR, for example, contains even in the most optimistic estimates about 7 billion barrels, or about a fourteen-week supply at world usage rates.]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 09:59:38 -0400
Though as to the "stupidity" of the government in not allowing more domestic production-- despite the offshore possibilities, there just isn't any way to make a significant difference with our own oil reserves. We have no serious untapped fields. ANWR, for example, contains even in the most optimistic estimates about 7 billion barrels, or about a fourteen-week supply at world usage rates.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134841-credit-card-catastrophe-congress-can-t-help?source=feed#comment-488050 488050
This is in part Congress's fault, for not having acted to overturn the Supreme Court decision Marquette National Bank (1978) which took financial regulation, including usury laws, away from the states when dealing with federally chartered banks, which-- surprise!-- all the credit card companies then rushed to form.]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 20:39:03 -0400
This is in part Congress's fault, for not having acted to overturn the Supreme Court decision Marquette National Bank (1978) which took financial regulation, including usury laws, away from the states when dealing with federally chartered banks, which-- surprise!-- all the credit card companies then rushed to form.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130146-200-oil-is-coming-while-we-waste-a-perfectly-good-crisis-part-3?source=feed#comment-457571 457571 Thu, 09 Apr 2009 11:46:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128010-canadian-energy-trusts-the-best-long-term-income-and-dollar-hedge-part-2?source=feed#comment-452459 452459 Sun, 05 Apr 2009 12:33:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129515-could-the-dow-sink-another-50-by-2012?source=feed#comment-452341 452341
One cannot "point out" an opinion. Pointing out something is reserved for facts, and facts only. Fifty years ago it may be possible to say that Mr. Dent pointed out these things, assuming they come true, but certainly not today. You have two strikes against you in my mind when you can't use language correctly.

Mr. Dent's conclusion is suspect, as well, and smacks of the Rush Limbaugh effect-- of taking extreme positions for the sake of getting attention. (The fact that his books have sold many copies says very little in his favor; should we give Danielle Steele the Pulitzer prize for literature on that basis?) This kind of book comes out every so often, and tends to smack of the predictions of the arrival of the Rapture in A.D. 1000, A.D. 2000 and in many other years. "Surviving the Great Depression of 1990", anyone? The fact that Mr. Dent's previous books have come out more or less as these things were occurring, not several years before like Daniel Arnold's "The Great Bust Ahead" (2002), makes Dent rather like someone offering to sell you the winning lottery ticket number the day after it has been drawn.

The truth is, even if someone's worldview successfully encompasses the astounding complexity of the economy, it is an example of the best use of the metaphor inherent in the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. The position of electrons cannot be discovered by shining light at them because the photons affect the electrons and skew the results. Similarly, the market can't be well predicted in an era of keyword-triggered automatic trading because commentary itself skews what it is describing.

For myself, I plan to ignore the rending of garments and gnashing of teeth, and simply get on with the business of life.]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2009 10:58:08 -0400
One cannot "point out" an opinion. Pointing out something is reserved for facts, and facts only. Fifty years ago it may be possible to say that Mr. Dent pointed out these things, assuming they come true, but certainly not today. You have two strikes against you in my mind when you can't use language correctly.

Mr. Dent's conclusion is suspect, as well, and smacks of the Rush Limbaugh effect-- of taking extreme positions for the sake of getting attention. (The fact that his books have sold many copies says very little in his favor; should we give Danielle Steele the Pulitzer prize for literature on that basis?) This kind of book comes out every so often, and tends to smack of the predictions of the arrival of the Rapture in A.D. 1000, A.D. 2000 and in many other years. "Surviving the Great Depression of 1990", anyone? The fact that Mr. Dent's previous books have come out more or less as these things were occurring, not several years before like Daniel Arnold's "The Great Bust Ahead" (2002), makes Dent rather like someone offering to sell you the winning lottery ticket number the day after it has been drawn.

The truth is, even if someone's worldview successfully encompasses the astounding complexity of the economy, it is an example of the best use of the metaphor inherent in the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. The position of electrons cannot be discovered by shining light at them because the photons affect the electrons and skew the results. Similarly, the market can't be well predicted in an era of keyword-triggered automatic trading because commentary itself skews what it is describing.

For myself, I plan to ignore the rending of garments and gnashing of teeth, and simply get on with the business of life.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128942-g20-protesters-break-into-rbs?source=feed#comment-451856 451856
You're right; they may have had enough of being remotely competitive. Let them do whatever feel-good, instinctive, populist things they wish, and get outcompeted left, right and center in the future by those who take economics and anything similarly beyond the scope of the comprehension and conscience of the average shmoe seriously.]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 15:39:23 -0400
You're right; they may have had enough of being remotely competitive. Let them do whatever feel-good, instinctive, populist things they wish, and get outcompeted left, right and center in the future by those who take economics and anything similarly beyond the scope of the comprehension and conscience of the average shmoe seriously.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126904-we-should-be-fighting-a-trade-war-with-china-not-mexico?source=feed#comment-434054 434054
On Mar 19 09:28 PM DHH wrote:

> You want to start a trade war with China? Smart move. I'm sure in
> this time of economic crisis Americans want to pay $10 dollars for
> a pair of socks instead of $2. $150 for a pair of shoes instead
> of $75.]]> Fri, 20 Mar 2009 17:37:52 -0400
On Mar 19 09:28 PM DHH wrote:

> You want to start a trade war with China? Smart move. I'm sure in
> this time of economic crisis Americans want to pay $10 dollars for
> a pair of socks instead of $2. $150 for a pair of shoes instead
> of $75.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125958-the-end-of-most-newspapers?source=feed#comment-427768 427768
What you're actually against is the fact that the media have until recently prospered with the approach they have now, because most people aren't as conservative as you, and that the only reason they're not prospering now is due to changing societal communication and information consumption patterns, not to the unattractiveness of their editorial approaches. You're like an ugly person who claims all mirrors must be flawed.]]> Mon, 16 Mar 2009 12:16:52 -0400
What you're actually against is the fact that the media have until recently prospered with the approach they have now, because most people aren't as conservative as you, and that the only reason they're not prospering now is due to changing societal communication and information consumption patterns, not to the unattractiveness of their editorial approaches. You're like an ugly person who claims all mirrors must be flawed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126151-atlas-pipelines-i-m-out-of-here?source=feed#comment-427694 427694 Mon, 16 Mar 2009 11:42:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125970-stewart-vs-cramer-a-cheap-shot?source=feed#comment-427417 427417 Mon, 16 Mar 2009 09:25:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126000-luckiest-generation-in-history-young-americans?source=feed#comment-426312 426312
But the kind of wealth that counts in purchasing independence, which is the best use of money and which is what enables most decisions to do right, is relative wealth. In which area we're worse off than we've been in the better part of a century. This is true both for individual Americans, with our hand-to-mouth lifestyle, our until-recently negative net savings rate and the resulting terror of being laid off, and for the United States itself. Our hands are tied in dealing with China, for example, who own $700 billion of our debt, or Saudi Arabia, whose barbarity we ignore in favor of oil and an ally in the Middle East.

Independence is better than ever-lower prices, at this point.]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 09:54:10 -0400
But the kind of wealth that counts in purchasing independence, which is the best use of money and which is what enables most decisions to do right, is relative wealth. In which area we're worse off than we've been in the better part of a century. This is true both for individual Americans, with our hand-to-mouth lifestyle, our until-recently negative net savings rate and the resulting terror of being laid off, and for the United States itself. Our hands are tied in dealing with China, for example, who own $700 billion of our debt, or Saudi Arabia, whose barbarity we ignore in favor of oil and an ally in the Middle East.

Independence is better than ever-lower prices, at this point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125491-the-sell-after-dividend-cut-freeze-rule-with-exceptions?source=feed#comment-425603 425603 Sat, 14 Mar 2009 11:24:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107882-markets-punish-dividend-cutters?source=feed#comment-409850 409850
These days, selling a company because it's cutting a dividend is like breaking up with a nymphomaniac with multiple personality disorder because she's currently on a rare personality that doesn't want to sleep with you. These companies have the dividend habit. They'll be back, and reward most those who had faith in them.]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:58:25 -0500
These days, selling a company because it's cutting a dividend is like breaking up with a nymphomaniac with multiple personality disorder because she's currently on a rare personality that doesn't want to sleep with you. These companies have the dividend habit. They'll be back, and reward most those who had faith in them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123240-the-economy-and-why-it-s-taking-so-long-to-fix-it?source=feed#comment-407970 407970
Congress, of course, should have then stepped in and amended the federal law to reverse Marquette National Bank, but they didn't.

On Feb 27 06:06 PM User 365859 wrote:

> The mess we got into is 20yrs in the making. It started with the
> most favorite nation status to China(by Bill Clinton). Since then
> we have shipped 7 million manufacturing jobs to China. and the 20
> million support jobs that go with them This was done with the help
> of wall street and complicity of our managerial and political class.
> In order to maintain the standard of living in the face of these
> losses of good paying jobs american middle class borrowed too much
> and again wall-street was complicit in selling mortgages credit cards
> and every other form of debt that they knew people would not be able
> to laon back.
>
> Let the larger banks fail and create an RTC which will then sell
> those assets that are worth something to the next tier of banks.Wipe
> out the common share holders and start over. There would be much
> less pain in the medium term and we could make the medium banks the
> abilityh to make good profits and grow.
>
> The individual howeowner like me who has 70 percent equity is just
> going to suck it up. There are a few million too many homes in this
> country and we have to work through the inventory which could take
> a long time.
>
> I am my brothers keeper so we the better off have to help those less
> fortunate.
> ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 12:14:03 -0500
Congress, of course, should have then stepped in and amended the federal law to reverse Marquette National Bank, but they didn't.

On Feb 27 06:06 PM User 365859 wrote:

> The mess we got into is 20yrs in the making. It started with the
> most favorite nation status to China(by Bill Clinton). Since then
> we have shipped 7 million manufacturing jobs to China. and the 20
> million support jobs that go with them This was done with the help
> of wall street and complicity of our managerial and political class.
> In order to maintain the standard of living in the face of these
> losses of good paying jobs american middle class borrowed too much
> and again wall-street was complicit in selling mortgages credit cards
> and every other form of debt that they knew people would not be able
> to laon back.
>
> Let the larger banks fail and create an RTC which will then sell
> those assets that are worth something to the next tier of banks.Wipe
> out the common share holders and start over. There would be much
> less pain in the medium term and we could make the medium banks the
> abilityh to make good profits and grow.
>
> The individual howeowner like me who has 70 percent equity is just
> going to suck it up. There are a few million too many homes in this
> country and we have to work through the inventory which could take
> a long time.
>
> I am my brothers keeper so we the better off have to help those less
> fortunate.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123258-a-sad-day-for-newspapers?source=feed#comment-407704 407704
On Feb 27 05:20 PM borgnuster wrote:

> Newspapers are delusional if they believe that the economy and the
> Internet is the reason for their demise. Every person who has canceled
> a newspaper subscription due to the liberal bias that is spewed out
> of their hateful pseudo-reporters knows what the real root cause
> is/was.]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 09:32:59 -0500
On Feb 27 05:20 PM borgnuster wrote:

> Newspapers are delusional if they believe that the economy and the
> Internet is the reason for their demise. Every person who has canceled
> a newspaper subscription due to the liberal bias that is spewed out
> of their hateful pseudo-reporters knows what the real root cause
> is/was.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122205-fiscal-responsibility-obama-takes-the-reins?source=feed#comment-403223 403223
On Feb 24 10:43 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> 3. Improving efficiencies in government and other broad service
> areas, such as medicine, will involve challenging entrenched economic
> interests. Can Obama be effective here when all too many legislative
> branch politicians are bought and paid for?]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 12:46:20 -0500
On Feb 24 10:43 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> 3. Improving efficiencies in government and other broad service
> areas, such as medicine, will involve challenging entrenched economic
> interests. Can Obama be effective here when all too many legislative
> branch politicians are bought and paid for?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120644-barron-s-best-dividend-plays-for-2009?source=feed#comment-403185 403185
The government of course does tax dividends, but not nearly as highly as it does ordinary income, so that money comes easier to you than the same sum you worked for.

On Feb 15 05:06 AM guliamo wrote:

> What's the deal with dividends anyway?
> As a friend of mine says - Dividends are just a clever way for the
> government to tax you before you sell the stocks.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 12:23:36 -0500
The government of course does tax dividends, but not nearly as highly as it does ordinary income, so that money comes easier to you than the same sum you worked for.

On Feb 15 05:06 AM guliamo wrote:

> What's the deal with dividends anyway?
> As a friend of mine says - Dividends are just a clever way for the
> government to tax you before you sell the stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122231-what-would-j-pierpont-morgan-do?source=feed#comment-401634 401634 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 12:45:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122258-the-gloom-talk-from-the-top-needs-to-stop?source=feed#comment-401354 401354
This is true even without the bubble effect caused by those seen to be making money: short sellers making money produce more short sellers. It's a reverse bubble. Selling pessimism for profit that only helps your shorts take money from other investors in ordinary times is one thing; spreading unhelpful degrees of gloom for profit nowadays when it actually helps to cause higher unemployment is truly evil. They should ban short selling altogether until this recession is over, because it incentivizes people to help prolong it by spreading gloom. Or at the very minimum, they should bar trading firms from including in their investor contracts a requirement that they be able to lend out a shareholder's stocks for short selling, so that an individual shareholder can decide whether his or her shares get loaned out.]]> Tue, 24 Feb 2009 10:24:08 -0500
This is true even without the bubble effect caused by those seen to be making money: short sellers making money produce more short sellers. It's a reverse bubble. Selling pessimism for profit that only helps your shorts take money from other investors in ordinary times is one thing; spreading unhelpful degrees of gloom for profit nowadays when it actually helps to cause higher unemployment is truly evil. They should ban short selling altogether until this recession is over, because it incentivizes people to help prolong it by spreading gloom. Or at the very minimum, they should bar trading firms from including in their investor contracts a requirement that they be able to lend out a shareholder's stocks for short selling, so that an individual shareholder can decide whether his or her shares get loaned out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118339-end-of-the-recession-in-2009?source=feed#comment-401300 401300 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 09:50:28 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122201-stocks-are-cheap-finding-exceptional-value-in-today-s-market?source=feed#comment-401292 401292 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 09:47:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122143-dow-nears-50-retracement-tread-carefully?source=feed#comment-401221 401221

On Feb 24 02:15 AM mr freddo wrote:


> There is currently no cause for optimism. None. Nada. Investors
> are freaked that they are going to lose the other 50% they haven't
> lost already.
>
> I'm going to go hide in gold stocks and silver for a while but my
> long positions will be getting battered so there won't be cause to
> rejoice if gold continues to move upward.
]]> Tue, 24 Feb 2009 09:18:35 -0500

On Feb 24 02:15 AM mr freddo wrote:


> There is currently no cause for optimism. None. Nada. Investors
> are freaked that they are going to lose the other 50% they haven't
> lost already.
>
> I'm going to go hide in gold stocks and silver for a while but my
> long positions will be getting battered so there won't be cause to
> rejoice if gold continues to move upward.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121912-bank-of-america-continues-to-stand-strong?source=feed#comment-399829 399829
On Feb 22 10:10 AM NITRAM wrote:

> If the used car salesman's (Obama) has its way the will nationalize.
> Remember, he wants socialism. You are dealing his the --- --- who
> fooled most of the people most of the time. Of course nationalizing
> would be the worst thing for our country. However, with the most
> corrupt and the most incompetent administration and congress in
> history what canb you expect.]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 09:52:32 -0500
On Feb 22 10:10 AM NITRAM wrote:

> If the used car salesman's (Obama) has its way the will nationalize.
> Remember, he wants socialism. You are dealing his the --- --- who
> fooled most of the people most of the time. Of course nationalizing
> would be the worst thing for our country. However, with the most
> corrupt and the most incompetent administration and congress in
> history what canb you expect.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121735-what-will-we-do-with-all-that-debt?source=feed#comment-397706 397706 Sat, 21 Feb 2009 11:07:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109604-are-the-dry-shippers-value-traps?source=feed#comment-387916 387916 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 18:30:40 -0500