antiquary

Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012?

"As Harry Dent...pointed out"?

One cannot "point out" an opinion. Pointing out something is reserved for facts, and facts only. Fifty years ago it may be possible to say that Mr. Dent pointed out these things, assuming they come true, but certainly not today. You have two strikes against you in my mind when you can't use language correctly.

Mr. Dent's conclusion is suspect, as well, and smacks of the Rush Limbaugh effect-- of taking extreme positions for the sake of getting attention. (The fact that his books have sold many copies says very little in his favor; should we give Danielle Steele the Pulitzer prize for literature on that basis?) This kind of book comes out every so often, and tends to smack of the predictions of the arrival of the Rapture in A.D. 1000, A.D. 2000 and in many other years. "Surviving the Great Depression of 1990", anyone? The fact that Mr. Dent's previous books have come out more or less as these things were occurring, not several years before like Daniel Arnold's "The Great Bust Ahead" (2002), makes Dent rather like someone offering to sell you the winning lottery ticket number the day after it has been drawn.

The truth is, even if someone's worldview successfully encompasses the astounding complexity of the economy, it is an example of the best use of the metaphor inherent in the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. The position of electrons cannot be discovered by shining light at them because the photons affect the electrons and skew the results. Similarly, the market can't be well predicted in an era of keyword-triggered automatic trading because commentary itself skews what it is describing.

For myself, I plan to ignore the rending of garments and gnashing of teeth, and simply get on with the business of life.