cygnus

Sirius XM: Looking Ahead to Fourth Quarter Results

just got one in my e-mail with the subject in all caps

SOMETHING BIG IS COMING

Can't wait to see what the "BIG" thing will be.

On Feb 27 05:30 PM cygnus wrote:

> Yes, I suppose so.. one of those things where you could read it a
> couple ways... For those not wanting to follow the link (once you
> cut and paste) It says:
>
> Next Week Find Out Why XM Makes More Sense Than Ever
>
> One Week Sales Event
>
> 3 Deals. 3 Ways to Listen.
>
> Be interesting to see what the deals are anyway.

Sirius XM: Looking Ahead to Fourth Quarter Results

Yes, I suppose so.. one of those things where you could read it a couple ways... For those not wanting to follow the link (once you cut and paste) It says:

Next Week Find Out Why XM Makes More Sense Than Ever

One Week Sales Event

3 Deals. 3 Ways to Listen.

Be interesting to see what the deals are anyway.


On Feb 27 05:26 PM Bababooie wrote:

> I had to copy the link into notepad & then the rest. I liked into
> it but there not too much to AD "3 DEALS * 3 WAYS TO LISTEN"
> ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/...$ATS33UU/doc.html

Sirius XM: Looking Ahead to Fourth Quarter Results

Found this on the google forum. Someone supposedly got it in an e-mail

ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/...$ATS33UU/doc.html

Ad from Sirius XM about something coming next week. Supposedly "3 Ways to Listen"

Whaddya think?

Sirius XM: Media's Fear-Mongering Has Gone on Long Enough

Yup, something positive. I liked this quote

"“Our plan is to merge [Sirius and XM] platforms... but to expand that into the mobile video space -- we'll see. That's the grand and glorious future we can only hope comes to pass, but we didn't put a lot of stock in that when we did our evaluation," Maffei said."

doesn't seem to jive with all the gloom and doom or selective quoting that has been reported by everyone else

On another note, nice drop in short interest:

FIVE BIGGEST DECREASES:
Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 158,732,676 271,931,355 -113,198,679 -41.63




On Feb 25 05:43 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> Sorry, it says basically packaging sirius with directv in the future,
> some sirius sats are compatible, longer term future possible synergies.
> Excited, both CEO's are EGAR to work an a packaging deal of some
> sort.

The Sirius Price of Liberty

Cos,
Appreciate your and the others analysis and time you have put into this. You have been right on with your trading strategy since you stopped averaging down a few months back. I, on the other hand, have watched and held as each significant pop evaporated in a couple of days. I did manage to pick up 25k at .06 the other day and brought my average down to where a buyout would make me some money. I'm going to start using your strategy though as that seems to be the best way to navigate the next couple months. Question is, we have earning coming up next week. What is your opinion on SP going into the CC and coming out of the CC. I'd really like to start to accumulate some "free" shares, but don't want catch the wrong wave and end up getting slammed into the reef.

Appreciate "most" everyone's input here as well. Great info and analysis...that hasn't done crap in the way of a decent SP, but has helped to keep me an others totally out of the dark.

On Feb 19 12:03 PM cos1000 wrote:

> Shure 46,
> I agree that it is hard to be an optimist, but with the unreliable
> main stream media out their, I try and stay with the facts as reported
> to the SEC through filings. The shakeout is for real and I am just
> trying to accumulated shares on "News Pops" down here. I am obviously
> in till the end ..... I posted this as my reality on Tyler's other
> article.
>
> All I know is this company as of Tuesday is now in a position to
> stave off BK. The Feb 09 is done, and with no other offers Malone
> will buy the UBS $100M Bank Debt, and Mel did not us any COH to take
> the Feb 09 debt out. This means he has the COH to take out the May
> 09, remaining $250M held by the banks. What Mel and John Malone set
> up as of Tuesday is a block to forcing the company into BK due to
> Feb or May 09 debt. The payments to MLB should be able to be made
> if properly accrued for $60M, if not the initial $150M to XM can
> be used for this and other operational costs during this period.
> So although nothing is in stone yet, the framework is there and that
> has me sleeping better at night. Eventually everyone out there following
> the company, and there are not many who do in detail, will get it
> right and the SP will move organically in the right direction. If
> Ergen buys us out for $1.50 then fine, the nightmare for me will
> be over and I will move on to other things, shippers, solar / renewable
> co's , infrastructure, to name a few. There will be life after this
> and opportunities will abound.

Tuesday Trading May Bring New Life to Sirius

Finally...

online.wsj.com/home-pa...

Take a look at the "Breaking News" Banner :-)

Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash

cos1000,
My Dad was in the Air Force. Early on in SEA with S&R on HH-43s. Color blindness kept me out years ago (no tech jobs). My hat is off to all you veterans then and now.

I wish I had had the discipline (or knowledge/experience) to get out of this stock way back when. Who, among us mere mortals, could have seen exactly how bad it would get with this stock. I had gotten burned a few years back by getting out of a stock at the bottom only to have it go back up. I swore I wouldn't do that again, so averaged down and averaged down. For a while I could keep my loss at 50%, but then these violent legs down just killed me, but continued to hold. Bought more in the 30's, mid 20's, and .15 with my next highest at .95 and then other buys higher.

Your strategy makes the most sense, and come Monday/Tuesday, I may be kicking myself... obviously not the first time I've done that. Just seems like lately the Big 3 problems have been weighing heavily on Sirius. So, it would seem that with some good news the opposite effect should happen and possibly there would be a couple of other good follow ons. Love to get out of all my positions up to .95 and take a little breather. My only worry is the killjoy from GS chiming in after some perceived good news to bring rain to the parade. Next week is going to be fun.

Good luck to everyone. Whatever strategy you pursue, I hope it is a winning one.


On Nov 28 04:12 PM cos1000 wrote:

> cygnus...
>
> Appreciate your comments. The lines are what I personally avoid but
> love to see the enthusiasm. Every since my - Hurry Up and Wait -
> days of the Air Force as a young recruit, lines have had a different
> meaning for me.... Any Veterans out there know what I'm talking about.
> The lines then didn't have the rewards back then that these hopefuls
> have today.
>
> I agree and have been a proponent of News induced rallies for this
> stock, but just feel that their is way to much Hype in the market
> in general that has created a short term overbought situation. With
> the Shorts still hovering as always, and taking a break this week
> to enjoy the Holiday and let the Market recover, I just feel that
> their coming back in force in the early to middle part of the week.
> A lot of opposition will be very vocal about the auto bail out and
> in the end the money will be given. IMHO. This just becomes an opportunity
> for the shorts to make money taking it down and then rebounding on
> a positive decision. The auto stock are already ahead of themselves
> in price and will suffer early also. Well that's my take and now
> we will all have to see how it unfolds. I think that s162's strategy
> of moving in halves is a good one. I am just trying to recover more
> in less time.
>
> My strategy may be foolish, but look where the SP is while I am employing
> it. I still believe that before the meeting and with the positive
> news on the autos the stock will move off and out of this range until
> after the meeting. The low .40's are possible, and I am hoping that
> it goes their. I just think it will go down before it gets there.
> If on Monday it closes over .26, then I probably was wrong and I
> have a longer wait before I get back in.

Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash

cos100,
I follow your posts as well as sl62, relmor, and anyone else who can make a sensible post, be it negative or positive. Good that you were able to get out at a point that you liked today. I've been looking for a point to get out of some of my positions as well. Today looked good, but don't you think we will get a good pop on Tuesday if the Big 3 show up in Town flying in on Ted with their best Sears suit and maybe a little more humble with a plan that makes sense?... ok, maybe just a little more humble and a good plan :-) If they came in with a good to great plan, would that buzz last through the 8th (or whenever it gets decided)? If that happened, would that be enough to get a bunch of shorts to cover (at least short term) and maybe get us up around .40 or so for a short time?

Hope everyone is enjoying their leftovers. Can't believe I read that some of you fellas ventured in to Walmart today. What are you nuts? We had people camped out in front of the Best Buy since 9pm last night... Some in line to save 50 bucks on that "must have" item.. Gotta love it.

On Nov 28 02:57 PM cos1000 wrote:

> geez i hate it when it all just comes out in Gibberish.... relmor,
> I was feeling like you on Wednesday regarding next week's market
> action. After looking at the charts and observing Sirius' and the
> market's price points approaching the 13 DMA, I thought I would wait
> another day, today, to take advantage of a weak trading day, before
> they take the price down again next week. I cleared 85% of my Sirius
> XM position today at .2090 today. I will be looking to get back in
> before the end of the upcoming week.

An iPhone With Satellite Radio - Gasp! Really?

The cool thing about getting in line, is that Sirius can go to the head of the line.... if only they had the complete package available....


On Nov 26 01:09 PM djangophile wrote:

> Satellite radio, but not using the satellite. We call this internet
> radio. Welcome to 1999 and get in line.

An iPhone With Satellite Radio - Gasp! Really?

Kind of depends on where you live and your lifestyle. We don't get the Sat signal out here in Hawaii. This would almost push me over the edge to get an iphone on the AT&T network. However, I haven't read wonderful things about this new iphone so I'll probably wait for the new version next summer.



On Nov 25 11:36 AM LongAAPL wrote:

> I really can't think of a reason that I want satellite radio other
> than traveling in the car. There are already satellite radios for
> cars, some with iPod integration. i don't get why I would need to
> pay more to hear it through the iphone.
>
> Are there really many people that would listen to SIRIUS all day
> long and drain the battery on their phone?
>
> IMHO it is not a viable business model.
>

Sirius Investors: Decline in OEM Take Rate Something to Watch

Great Post sl62


On Nov 22 12:13 PM sl62 wrote:

> Open Letter To All Posters On This Board...
>
> Here's how it works around here (as if I even have to take the freaking
> time to write this):........
>

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

sl62 and cos1000,
From the faq: www.sec.gov/divisions/...

Question 8
Q: What information must institutional investment managers report on Form 13F?
A: Among other things, Form 13F filings must include:

the issuer name of all Section 13(f) securities (which should be listed in alphabetical order);

a description of the class of security listed (e.g., common stock, put/call option, class A shares, convertible debenture);

the number of shares owned;

and
the fair market value of the securities listed, as of the end of the calendar quarter.

So that pretty much verifies that the numbers are simply FMV at the end of the quarter. Nothing really deceitful... just the rules/requirements.

ok, so at least there is "some" visibility. Not quite in the dark.. maybe more like in the house of mirrors :-)

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

sl62,
I didn't do any exhaustive research on this, but I think the only thing magical about .57 (thereabouts) is the fact that it is the price on the last day of the quarter. Throw a dart at any of those institutions. They all seem to come up with .57ish. But.. just to try it on something different, I looked at your Citigroup and picked Frontline Ltd. Came up with a price per share of 48.04. Any guess as to what the closing price on September 30th was? Checked for PepsiCo and had the same outcome. Shares "purchased" for 71.27 and closing price on 9/30 was 71.27.
So.. still useful, but I guess not "that" useful??


On Nov 16 09:57 PM sl62 wrote:

> cos1000...
>
> Much appreciate your diligence. And yes, you're right, these are
> for Q ended Sept.30. So slightly more backward-looking than we'd
> like. I guess to find out purchase dates we have to, as you and Cygnus
> have done, look at the paper trail. I did so for another new holding,
> Rockefeller Financial Services. Clicking on their hotlink, it took
> me to their holdings list, then at the top is their latest Form 13F
> link. Scrolling down to find the SIRI buy, it states they bought
> 1,534,101shares for $874,000. Doing that math, it means they paid
> .5697/sh. So then, I checked historical prices and found something
> interesting. On Sept 30, the intraday low is stated as .57. Now,
> the Rockefeller 13F info math says .5697...hmmm, maybe they rounded
> it off on the 13F? Maybe after hours price? But it is damn close
> so conceivable I suppose. Before Sept.30, SIRI never traded below
> .62 so the 30th would have to be it to make it into the Q numbers
> at those stated amounts. SIRI actually closed @ .57 on that day.
>
>
> Here's Citigroup's info:
> $13K 23380 SH = (my math) .5560
> $4K 6820 SH = (my math) .5865
> $2962K 5196657 SH = (my math) .5699
> $1K 1800 SH = (my math) .5555
> 300 526000 SH CALL
> 303 531800 SH PUT
>
> Now, again before Sept30, SIRI never traded below .62 and on the
> 30th, the set a new low of .57. So I don't know where the .55/sh
> come into play...but that's what it says on their 13F. A little confusing.
> Your Ameriprise seemed to suggest .57/sh. Which again only could
> have been transacted on the 30th (by way of historical prices).
>
>
> If it's true these purchases were made on Sept30, at these pps's,
> it stands to reason that most of these holders would still own their
> shares @ the current .27pps. Being large Funds, I would believe they
> would hold these at least a full Q if not longer. Typically, We the
> Peons, get no real help in trying to access up-to-date purchase info
> which might help us better understand what's going on.. There's probably
> more to this that we will not be able figure exactly. Anyway, I'm
> still encouraged by recent events and as always, we'll just have
> to wait and see how it keeps playing out. They sure don't make it
> easy on us do they?

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

cos1000 and SD, I think that nasdaq and mffais, right now anyway, match up pretty close on numbers. If you take out all the "sold all" lines and total everything up, you get to right around 38%. I've been tracking daily changes since late October and ownership has increased from 18% to 38%.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

Thanks cos1000. That puts the numbers into better perspective. I've been closely tracking the mffais/sec numbers and was aware that it was basically a snapshot of what transactions took place during the quarter. As you have done, I need to start digging deeper to put a significance on each of these big additions.

Still.. would seem to be a positive with the numbers steadily increasing. The further we move along, the further we get away from "merger numbers" and more into post merger accumulations/reductio...


On Nov 16 01:17 PM cos1000 wrote:

> cygnus
>
> You are write to check quarterly closing dates to make sure what
> is or isn't included. Ameriprise Financial 13F-HR filing of 11/10/08
> was for their quarter ending 9/30/08. That quarter then would be
> 7/1/08 - 9/30/08. The date that I site was from a candlestick chart
> review and 7/29 was a day that included the 1.75 price intra-day
> and the Volume that day was over 250M shares, so that is my estimated
> transaction date. The other filing dates you stated cover 1 Q ending
> March 30th and filed on 5/6 and 2Q ending on June 30 th and filed
> on 8/12. Most companies take 4-5 weeks from the quarters closing
> date to report their results to the SEC.