cygnus's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/288151/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/122952-sirius-xm-looking-ahead-to-fourth-quarter-results?source=feed#comment-406532 406532
SOMETHING BIG IS COMING

Can't wait to see what the "BIG" thing will be.

On Feb 27 05:30 PM cygnus wrote:

> Yes, I suppose so.. one of those things where you could read it a
> couple ways... For those not wanting to follow the link (once you
> cut and paste) It says:
>
> Next Week Find Out Why XM Makes More Sense Than Ever
>
> One Week Sales Event
>
> 3 Deals. 3 Ways to Listen.
>
> Be interesting to see what the deals are anyway.]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 18:17:28 -0500
SOMETHING BIG IS COMING

Can't wait to see what the "BIG" thing will be.

On Feb 27 05:30 PM cygnus wrote:

> Yes, I suppose so.. one of those things where you could read it a
> couple ways... For those not wanting to follow the link (once you
> cut and paste) It says:
>
> Next Week Find Out Why XM Makes More Sense Than Ever
>
> One Week Sales Event
>
> 3 Deals. 3 Ways to Listen.
>
> Be interesting to see what the deals are anyway.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122952-sirius-xm-looking-ahead-to-fourth-quarter-results?source=feed#comment-406482 406482
Next Week Find Out Why XM Makes More Sense Than Ever

One Week Sales Event

3 Deals. 3 Ways to Listen.

Be interesting to see what the deals are anyway.


On Feb 27 05:26 PM Bababooie wrote:

> I had to copy the link into notepad & then the rest. I liked into
> it but there not too much to AD "3 DEALS * 3 WAYS TO LISTEN"
> ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/...$ATS33UU/doc.html]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 17:30:20 -0500
Next Week Find Out Why XM Makes More Sense Than Ever

One Week Sales Event

3 Deals. 3 Ways to Listen.

Be interesting to see what the deals are anyway.


On Feb 27 05:26 PM Bababooie wrote:

> I had to copy the link into notepad & then the rest. I liked into
> it but there not too much to AD "3 DEALS * 3 WAYS TO LISTEN"
> ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/...$ATS33UU/doc.html]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122952-sirius-xm-looking-ahead-to-fourth-quarter-results?source=feed#comment-406463 406463
ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/...$ATS33UU/doc.html

Ad from Sirius XM about something coming next week. Supposedly "3 Ways to Listen"

Whaddya think?]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 17:15:01 -0500
ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/...$ATS33UU/doc.html

Ad from Sirius XM about something coming next week. Supposedly "3 Ways to Listen"

Whaddya think?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122221-sirius-xm-media-s-fear-mongering-has-gone-on-long-enough?source=feed#comment-403686 403686
"“Our plan is to merge [Sirius and XM] platforms... but to expand that into the mobile video space -- we'll see. That's the grand and glorious future we can only hope comes to pass, but we didn't put a lot of stock in that when we did our evaluation," Maffei said."

doesn't seem to jive with all the gloom and doom or selective quoting that has been reported by everyone else

On another note, nice drop in short interest:

FIVE BIGGEST DECREASES:
Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 158,732,676 271,931,355 -113,198,679 -41.63




On Feb 25 05:43 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> Sorry, it says basically packaging sirius with directv in the future,
> some sirius sats are compatible, longer term future possible synergies.
> Excited, both CEO's are EGAR to work an a packaging deal of some
> sort.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:51:54 -0500
"“Our plan is to merge [Sirius and XM] platforms... but to expand that into the mobile video space -- we'll see. That's the grand and glorious future we can only hope comes to pass, but we didn't put a lot of stock in that when we did our evaluation," Maffei said."

doesn't seem to jive with all the gloom and doom or selective quoting that has been reported by everyone else

On another note, nice drop in short interest:

FIVE BIGGEST DECREASES:
Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 158,732,676 271,931,355 -113,198,679 -41.63




On Feb 25 05:43 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> Sorry, it says basically packaging sirius with directv in the future,
> some sirius sats are compatible, longer term future possible synergies.
> Excited, both CEO's are EGAR to work an a packaging deal of some
> sort.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121488-the-sirius-price-of-liberty?source=feed#comment-395267 395267 Appreciate your and the others analysis and time you have put into this. You have been right on with your trading strategy since you stopped averaging down a few months back. I, on the other hand, have watched and held as each significant pop evaporated in a couple of days. I did manage to pick up 25k at .06 the other day and brought my average down to where a buyout would make me some money. I'm going to start using your strategy though as that seems to be the best way to navigate the next couple months. Question is, we have earning coming up next week. What is your opinion on SP going into the CC and coming out of the CC. I'd really like to start to accumulate some "free" shares, but don't want catch the wrong wave and end up getting slammed into the reef.

Appreciate "most" everyone's input here as well. Great info and analysis...that hasn't done crap in the way of a decent SP, but has helped to keep me an others totally out of the dark.

On Feb 19 12:03 PM cos1000 wrote:

> Shure 46,
> I agree that it is hard to be an optimist, but with the unreliable
> main stream media out their, I try and stay with the facts as reported
> to the SEC through filings. The shakeout is for real and I am just
> trying to accumulated shares on "News Pops" down here. I am obviously
> in till the end ..... I posted this as my reality on Tyler's other
> article.
>
> All I know is this company as of Tuesday is now in a position to
> stave off BK. The Feb 09 is done, and with no other offers Malone
> will buy the UBS $100M Bank Debt, and Mel did not us any COH to take
> the Feb 09 debt out. This means he has the COH to take out the May
> 09, remaining $250M held by the banks. What Mel and John Malone set
> up as of Tuesday is a block to forcing the company into BK due to
> Feb or May 09 debt. The payments to MLB should be able to be made
> if properly accrued for $60M, if not the initial $150M to XM can
> be used for this and other operational costs during this period.
> So although nothing is in stone yet, the framework is there and that
> has me sleeping better at night. Eventually everyone out there following
> the company, and there are not many who do in detail, will get it
> right and the SP will move organically in the right direction. If
> Ergen buys us out for $1.50 then fine, the nightmare for me will
> be over and I will move on to other things, shippers, solar / renewable
> co's , infrastructure, to name a few. There will be life after this
> and opportunities will abound.]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:39:05 -0500 Appreciate your and the others analysis and time you have put into this. You have been right on with your trading strategy since you stopped averaging down a few months back. I, on the other hand, have watched and held as each significant pop evaporated in a couple of days. I did manage to pick up 25k at .06 the other day and brought my average down to where a buyout would make me some money. I'm going to start using your strategy though as that seems to be the best way to navigate the next couple months. Question is, we have earning coming up next week. What is your opinion on SP going into the CC and coming out of the CC. I'd really like to start to accumulate some "free" shares, but don't want catch the wrong wave and end up getting slammed into the reef.

Appreciate "most" everyone's input here as well. Great info and analysis...that hasn't done crap in the way of a decent SP, but has helped to keep me an others totally out of the dark.

On Feb 19 12:03 PM cos1000 wrote:

> Shure 46,
> I agree that it is hard to be an optimist, but with the unreliable
> main stream media out their, I try and stay with the facts as reported
> to the SEC through filings. The shakeout is for real and I am just
> trying to accumulated shares on "News Pops" down here. I am obviously
> in till the end ..... I posted this as my reality on Tyler's other
> article.
>
> All I know is this company as of Tuesday is now in a position to
> stave off BK. The Feb 09 is done, and with no other offers Malone
> will buy the UBS $100M Bank Debt, and Mel did not us any COH to take
> the Feb 09 debt out. This means he has the COH to take out the May
> 09, remaining $250M held by the banks. What Mel and John Malone set
> up as of Tuesday is a block to forcing the company into BK due to
> Feb or May 09 debt. The payments to MLB should be able to be made
> if properly accrued for $60M, if not the initial $150M to XM can
> be used for this and other operational costs during this period.
> So although nothing is in stone yet, the framework is there and that
> has me sleeping better at night. Eventually everyone out there following
> the company, and there are not many who do in detail, will get it
> right and the SP will move organically in the right direction. If
> Ergen buys us out for $1.50 then fine, the nightmare for me will
> be over and I will move on to other things, shippers, solar / renewable
> co's , infrastructure, to name a few. There will be life after this
> and opportunities will abound.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120682-tuesday-trading-may-bring-new-life-to-sirius?source=feed#comment-391037 391037
online.wsj.com/home-pa...

Take a look at the "Breaking News" Banner :-)]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 17:07:18 -0500
online.wsj.com/home-pa...

Take a look at the "Breaking News" Banner :-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108064-commercials-on-sirius-xm-benefit-vs-backlash?source=feed#comment-316915 316915 My Dad was in the Air Force. Early on in SEA with S&R on HH-43s. Color blindness kept me out years ago (no tech jobs). My hat is off to all you veterans then and now.

I wish I had had the discipline (or knowledge/experience) to get out of this stock way back when. Who, among us mere mortals, could have seen exactly how bad it would get with this stock. I had gotten burned a few years back by getting out of a stock at the bottom only to have it go back up. I swore I wouldn't do that again, so averaged down and averaged down. For a while I could keep my loss at 50%, but then these violent legs down just killed me, but continued to hold. Bought more in the 30's, mid 20's, and .15 with my next highest at .95 and then other buys higher.

Your strategy makes the most sense, and come Monday/Tuesday, I may be kicking myself... obviously not the first time I've done that. Just seems like lately the Big 3 problems have been weighing heavily on Sirius. So, it would seem that with some good news the opposite effect should happen and possibly there would be a couple of other good follow ons. Love to get out of all my positions up to .95 and take a little breather. My only worry is the killjoy from GS chiming in after some perceived good news to bring rain to the parade. Next week is going to be fun.

Good luck to everyone. Whatever strategy you pursue, I hope it is a winning one.


On Nov 28 04:12 PM cos1000 wrote:

> cygnus...
>
> Appreciate your comments. The lines are what I personally avoid but
> love to see the enthusiasm. Every since my - Hurry Up and Wait -
> days of the Air Force as a young recruit, lines have had a different
> meaning for me.... Any Veterans out there know what I'm talking about.
> The lines then didn't have the rewards back then that these hopefuls
> have today.
>
> I agree and have been a proponent of News induced rallies for this
> stock, but just feel that their is way to much Hype in the market
> in general that has created a short term overbought situation. With
> the Shorts still hovering as always, and taking a break this week
> to enjoy the Holiday and let the Market recover, I just feel that
> their coming back in force in the early to middle part of the week.
> A lot of opposition will be very vocal about the auto bail out and
> in the end the money will be given. IMHO. This just becomes an opportunity
> for the shorts to make money taking it down and then rebounding on
> a positive decision. The auto stock are already ahead of themselves
> in price and will suffer early also. Well that's my take and now
> we will all have to see how it unfolds. I think that s162's strategy
> of moving in halves is a good one. I am just trying to recover more
> in less time.
>
> My strategy may be foolish, but look where the SP is while I am employing
> it. I still believe that before the meeting and with the positive
> news on the autos the stock will move off and out of this range until
> after the meeting. The low .40's are possible, and I am hoping that
> it goes their. I just think it will go down before it gets there.
> If on Monday it closes over .26, then I probably was wrong and I
> have a longer wait before I get back in.]]> Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:50:37 -0500 My Dad was in the Air Force. Early on in SEA with S&R on HH-43s. Color blindness kept me out years ago (no tech jobs). My hat is off to all you veterans then and now.

I wish I had had the discipline (or knowledge/experience) to get out of this stock way back when. Who, among us mere mortals, could have seen exactly how bad it would get with this stock. I had gotten burned a few years back by getting out of a stock at the bottom only to have it go back up. I swore I wouldn't do that again, so averaged down and averaged down. For a while I could keep my loss at 50%, but then these violent legs down just killed me, but continued to hold. Bought more in the 30's, mid 20's, and .15 with my next highest at .95 and then other buys higher.

Your strategy makes the most sense, and come Monday/Tuesday, I may be kicking myself... obviously not the first time I've done that. Just seems like lately the Big 3 problems have been weighing heavily on Sirius. So, it would seem that with some good news the opposite effect should happen and possibly there would be a couple of other good follow ons. Love to get out of all my positions up to .95 and take a little breather. My only worry is the killjoy from GS chiming in after some perceived good news to bring rain to the parade. Next week is going to be fun.

Good luck to everyone. Whatever strategy you pursue, I hope it is a winning one.


On Nov 28 04:12 PM cos1000 wrote:

> cygnus...
>
> Appreciate your comments. The lines are what I personally avoid but
> love to see the enthusiasm. Every since my - Hurry Up and Wait -
> days of the Air Force as a young recruit, lines have had a different
> meaning for me.... Any Veterans out there know what I'm talking about.
> The lines then didn't have the rewards back then that these hopefuls
> have today.
>
> I agree and have been a proponent of News induced rallies for this
> stock, but just feel that their is way to much Hype in the market
> in general that has created a short term overbought situation. With
> the Shorts still hovering as always, and taking a break this week
> to enjoy the Holiday and let the Market recover, I just feel that
> their coming back in force in the early to middle part of the week.
> A lot of opposition will be very vocal about the auto bail out and
> in the end the money will be given. IMHO. This just becomes an opportunity
> for the shorts to make money taking it down and then rebounding on
> a positive decision. The auto stock are already ahead of themselves
> in price and will suffer early also. Well that's my take and now
> we will all have to see how it unfolds. I think that s162's strategy
> of moving in halves is a good one. I am just trying to recover more
> in less time.
>
> My strategy may be foolish, but look where the SP is while I am employing
> it. I still believe that before the meeting and with the positive
> news on the autos the stock will move off and out of this range until
> after the meeting. The low .40's are possible, and I am hoping that
> it goes their. I just think it will go down before it gets there.
> If on Monday it closes over .26, then I probably was wrong and I
> have a longer wait before I get back in.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108064-commercials-on-sirius-xm-benefit-vs-backlash?source=feed#comment-316888 316888 I follow your posts as well as sl62, relmor, and anyone else who can make a sensible post, be it negative or positive. Good that you were able to get out at a point that you liked today. I've been looking for a point to get out of some of my positions as well. Today looked good, but don't you think we will get a good pop on Tuesday if the Big 3 show up in Town flying in on Ted with their best Sears suit and maybe a little more humble with a plan that makes sense?... ok, maybe just a little more humble and a good plan :-) If they came in with a good to great plan, would that buzz last through the 8th (or whenever it gets decided)? If that happened, would that be enough to get a bunch of shorts to cover (at least short term) and maybe get us up around .40 or so for a short time?

Hope everyone is enjoying their leftovers. Can't believe I read that some of you fellas ventured in to Walmart today. What are you nuts? We had people camped out in front of the Best Buy since 9pm last night... Some in line to save 50 bucks on that "must have" item.. Gotta love it.

On Nov 28 02:57 PM cos1000 wrote:

> geez i hate it when it all just comes out in Gibberish.... relmor,
> I was feeling like you on Wednesday regarding next week's market
> action. After looking at the charts and observing Sirius' and the
> market's price points approaching the 13 DMA, I thought I would wait
> another day, today, to take advantage of a weak trading day, before
> they take the price down again next week. I cleared 85% of my Sirius
> XM position today at .2090 today. I will be looking to get back in
> before the end of the upcoming week.]]> Fri, 28 Nov 2008 15:39:39 -0500 I follow your posts as well as sl62, relmor, and anyone else who can make a sensible post, be it negative or positive. Good that you were able to get out at a point that you liked today. I've been looking for a point to get out of some of my positions as well. Today looked good, but don't you think we will get a good pop on Tuesday if the Big 3 show up in Town flying in on Ted with their best Sears suit and maybe a little more humble with a plan that makes sense?... ok, maybe just a little more humble and a good plan :-) If they came in with a good to great plan, would that buzz last through the 8th (or whenever it gets decided)? If that happened, would that be enough to get a bunch of shorts to cover (at least short term) and maybe get us up around .40 or so for a short time?

Hope everyone is enjoying their leftovers. Can't believe I read that some of you fellas ventured in to Walmart today. What are you nuts? We had people camped out in front of the Best Buy since 9pm last night... Some in line to save 50 bucks on that "must have" item.. Gotta love it.

On Nov 28 02:57 PM cos1000 wrote:

> geez i hate it when it all just comes out in Gibberish.... relmor,
> I was feeling like you on Wednesday regarding next week's market
> action. After looking at the charts and observing Sirius' and the
> market's price points approaching the 13 DMA, I thought I would wait
> another day, today, to take advantage of a weak trading day, before
> they take the price down again next week. I cleared 85% of my Sirius
> XM position today at .2090 today. I will be looking to get back in
> before the end of the upcoming week.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107863-an-iphone-with-satellite-radio-gasp-really?source=feed#comment-315677 315677

On Nov 26 01:09 PM djangophile wrote:

> Satellite radio, but not using the satellite. We call this internet
> radio. Welcome to 1999 and get in line.]]> Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:23:34 -0500

On Nov 26 01:09 PM djangophile wrote:

> Satellite radio, but not using the satellite. We call this internet
> radio. Welcome to 1999 and get in line.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107863-an-iphone-with-satellite-radio-gasp-really?source=feed#comment-314682 314682


On Nov 25 11:36 AM LongAAPL wrote:

> I really can't think of a reason that I want satellite radio other
> than traveling in the car. There are already satellite radios for
> cars, some with iPod integration. i don't get why I would need to
> pay more to hear it through the iphone.
>
> Are there really many people that would listen to SIRIUS all day
> long and drain the battery on their phone?
>
> IMHO it is not a viable business model.
> ]]> Tue, 25 Nov 2008 12:00:18 -0500


On Nov 25 11:36 AM LongAAPL wrote:

> I really can't think of a reason that I want satellite radio other
> than traveling in the car. There are already satellite radios for
> cars, some with iPod integration. i don't get why I would need to
> pay more to hear it through the iphone.
>
> Are there really many people that would listen to SIRIUS all day
> long and drain the battery on their phone?
>
> IMHO it is not a viable business model.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107241-sirius-investors-decline-in-oem-take-rate-something-to-watch?source=feed#comment-312526 312526

On Nov 22 12:13 PM sl62 wrote:

> Open Letter To All Posters On This Board...
>
> Here's how it works around here (as if I even have to take the freaking
> time to write this):........
>
]]> Sat, 22 Nov 2008 13:26:35 -0500

On Nov 22 12:13 PM sl62 wrote:

> Open Letter To All Posters On This Board...
>
> Here's how it works around here (as if I even have to take the freaking
> time to write this):........
>
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106182-who-ll-blink-first-sirius-loral-or-the-banks?source=feed#comment-307627 307627 From the faq: www.sec.gov/divisions/...

Question 8
Q: What information must institutional investment managers report on Form 13F?
A: Among other things, Form 13F filings must include:

the issuer name of all Section 13(f) securities (which should be listed in alphabetical order);

a description of the class of security listed (e.g., common stock, put/call option, class A shares, convertible debenture);

the number of shares owned;

and
the fair market value of the securities listed, as of the end of the calendar quarter.

So that pretty much verifies that the numbers are simply FMV at the end of the quarter. Nothing really deceitful... just the rules/requirements.

ok, so at least there is "some" visibility. Not quite in the dark.. maybe more like in the house of mirrors :-)
]]> Mon, 17 Nov 2008 00:57:41 -0500 From the faq: www.sec.gov/divisions/...

Question 8
Q: What information must institutional investment managers report on Form 13F?
A: Among other things, Form 13F filings must include:

the issuer name of all Section 13(f) securities (which should be listed in alphabetical order);

a description of the class of security listed (e.g., common stock, put/call option, class A shares, convertible debenture);

the number of shares owned;

and
the fair market value of the securities listed, as of the end of the calendar quarter.

So that pretty much verifies that the numbers are simply FMV at the end of the quarter. Nothing really deceitful... just the rules/requirements.

ok, so at least there is "some" visibility. Not quite in the dark.. maybe more like in the house of mirrors :-)
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106182-who-ll-blink-first-sirius-loral-or-the-banks?source=feed#comment-307582 307582 I didn't do any exhaustive research on this, but I think the only thing magical about .57 (thereabouts) is the fact that it is the price on the last day of the quarter. Throw a dart at any of those institutions. They all seem to come up with .57ish. But.. just to try it on something different, I looked at your Citigroup and picked Frontline Ltd. Came up with a price per share of 48.04. Any guess as to what the closing price on September 30th was? Checked for PepsiCo and had the same outcome. Shares "purchased" for 71.27 and closing price on 9/30 was 71.27.
So.. still useful, but I guess not "that" useful??


On Nov 16 09:57 PM sl62 wrote:

> cos1000...
>
> Much appreciate your diligence. And yes, you're right, these are
> for Q ended Sept.30. So slightly more backward-looking than we'd
> like. I guess to find out purchase dates we have to, as you and Cygnus
> have done, look at the paper trail. I did so for another new holding,
> Rockefeller Financial Services. Clicking on their hotlink, it took
> me to their holdings list, then at the top is their latest Form 13F
> link. Scrolling down to find the SIRI buy, it states they bought
> 1,534,101shares for $874,000. Doing that math, it means they paid
> .5697/sh. So then, I checked historical prices and found something
> interesting. On Sept 30, the intraday low is stated as .57. Now,
> the Rockefeller 13F info math says .5697...hmmm, maybe they rounded
> it off on the 13F? Maybe after hours price? But it is damn close
> so conceivable I suppose. Before Sept.30, SIRI never traded below
> .62 so the 30th would have to be it to make it into the Q numbers
> at those stated amounts. SIRI actually closed @ .57 on that day.
>
>
> Here's Citigroup's info:
> $13K 23380 SH = (my math) .5560
> $4K 6820 SH = (my math) .5865
> $2962K 5196657 SH = (my math) .5699
> $1K 1800 SH = (my math) .5555
> 300 526000 SH CALL
> 303 531800 SH PUT
>
> Now, again before Sept30, SIRI never traded below .62 and on the
> 30th, the set a new low of .57. So I don't know where the .55/sh
> come into play...but that's what it says on their 13F. A little confusing.
> Your Ameriprise seemed to suggest .57/sh. Which again only could
> have been transacted on the 30th (by way of historical prices).
>
>
> If it's true these purchases were made on Sept30, at these pps's,
> it stands to reason that most of these holders would still own their
> shares @ the current .27pps. Being large Funds, I would believe they
> would hold these at least a full Q if not longer. Typically, We the
> Peons, get no real help in trying to access up-to-date purchase info
> which might help us better understand what's going on.. There's probably
> more to this that we will not be able figure exactly. Anyway, I'm
> still encouraged by recent events and as always, we'll just have
> to wait and see how it keeps playing out. They sure don't make it
> easy on us do they?]]> Sun, 16 Nov 2008 22:51:20 -0500 I didn't do any exhaustive research on this, but I think the only thing magical about .57 (thereabouts) is the fact that it is the price on the last day of the quarter. Throw a dart at any of those institutions. They all seem to come up with .57ish. But.. just to try it on something different, I looked at your Citigroup and picked Frontline Ltd. Came up with a price per share of 48.04. Any guess as to what the closing price on September 30th was? Checked for PepsiCo and had the same outcome. Shares "purchased" for 71.27 and closing price on 9/30 was 71.27.
So.. still useful, but I guess not "that" useful??


On Nov 16 09:57 PM sl62 wrote:

> cos1000...
>
> Much appreciate your diligence. And yes, you're right, these are
> for Q ended Sept.30. So slightly more backward-looking than we'd
> like. I guess to find out purchase dates we have to, as you and Cygnus
> have done, look at the paper trail. I did so for another new holding,
> Rockefeller Financial Services. Clicking on their hotlink, it took
> me to their holdings list, then at the top is their latest Form 13F
> link. Scrolling down to find the SIRI buy, it states they bought
> 1,534,101shares for $874,000. Doing that math, it means they paid
> .5697/sh. So then, I checked historical prices and found something
> interesting. On Sept 30, the intraday low is stated as .57. Now,
> the Rockefeller 13F info math says .5697...hmmm, maybe they rounded
> it off on the 13F? Maybe after hours price? But it is damn close
> so conceivable I suppose. Before Sept.30, SIRI never traded below
> .62 so the 30th would have to be it to make it into the Q numbers
> at those stated amounts. SIRI actually closed @ .57 on that day.
>
>
> Here's Citigroup's info:
> $13K 23380 SH = (my math) .5560
> $4K 6820 SH = (my math) .5865
> $2962K 5196657 SH = (my math) .5699
> $1K 1800 SH = (my math) .5555
> 300 526000 SH CALL
> 303 531800 SH PUT
>
> Now, again before Sept30, SIRI never traded below .62 and on the
> 30th, the set a new low of .57. So I don't know where the .55/sh
> come into play...but that's what it says on their 13F. A little confusing.
> Your Ameriprise seemed to suggest .57/sh. Which again only could
> have been transacted on the 30th (by way of historical prices).
>
>
> If it's true these purchases were made on Sept30, at these pps's,
> it stands to reason that most of these holders would still own their
> shares @ the current .27pps. Being large Funds, I would believe they
> would hold these at least a full Q if not longer. Typically, We the
> Peons, get no real help in trying to access up-to-date purchase info
> which might help us better understand what's going on.. There's probably
> more to this that we will not be able figure exactly. Anyway, I'm
> still encouraged by recent events and as always, we'll just have
> to wait and see how it keeps playing out. They sure don't make it
> easy on us do they?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106182-who-ll-blink-first-sirius-loral-or-the-banks?source=feed#comment-307423 307423 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 17:54:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106182-who-ll-blink-first-sirius-loral-or-the-banks?source=feed#comment-307286 307286
Still.. would seem to be a positive with the numbers steadily increasing. The further we move along, the further we get away from "merger numbers" and more into post merger accumulations/reductio...


On Nov 16 01:17 PM cos1000 wrote:

> cygnus
>
> You are write to check quarterly closing dates to make sure what
> is or isn't included. Ameriprise Financial 13F-HR filing of 11/10/08
> was for their quarter ending 9/30/08. That quarter then would be
> 7/1/08 - 9/30/08. The date that I site was from a candlestick chart
> review and 7/29 was a day that included the 1.75 price intra-day
> and the Volume that day was over 250M shares, so that is my estimated
> transaction date. The other filing dates you stated cover 1 Q ending
> March 30th and filed on 5/6 and 2Q ending on June 30 th and filed
> on 8/12. Most companies take 4-5 weeks from the quarters closing
> date to report their results to the SEC.]]> Sun, 16 Nov 2008 13:43:16 -0500
Still.. would seem to be a positive with the numbers steadily increasing. The further we move along, the further we get away from "merger numbers" and more into post merger accumulations/reductio...


On Nov 16 01:17 PM cos1000 wrote:

> cygnus
>
> You are write to check quarterly closing dates to make sure what
> is or isn't included. Ameriprise Financial 13F-HR filing of 11/10/08
> was for their quarter ending 9/30/08. That quarter then would be
> 7/1/08 - 9/30/08. The date that I site was from a candlestick chart
> review and 7/29 was a day that included the 1.75 price intra-day
> and the Volume that day was over 250M shares, so that is my estimated
> transaction date. The other filing dates you stated cover 1 Q ending
> March 30th and filed on 5/6 and 2Q ending on June 30 th and filed
> on 8/12. Most companies take 4-5 weeks from the quarters closing
> date to report their results to the SEC.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106182-who-ll-blink-first-sirius-loral-or-the-banks?source=feed#comment-307267 307267

On Nov 16 01:01 PM shutupsitdown wrote:

> who cares? xm and siri should have fought until one of them went
> chapter 11, then chapter 7, and the other one scooped up the spoils.
> it was a good technology, and a good product (i'm a 5-radio xm subscriber,
> and got my first in 2003), but there is simply no expanding market
> for this service. people worried about their jobs won't pay for radio
> for the next few years.
>
> if you're holding onto a $0.25 stock in hopes that it will go to
> $0.42, that's just sad (unless you have 1,000,000 shares). this is
> all an academic argument. stocks under $2 are always a lot more likely
> to go to $0 than they are to return to the $2 level. and the only
> hope for this pointlessly combined company is that it will be able
> to stay on life support, lose more money, and *maybe* make most of
> its minimal debt payment on time, while cutting jobs, ruining the
> programming, and not offering a single new service feature for the
> next several years.
>
> as a company, sirius was poorly run (xm, too, most likely). combining
> two losing entities will *rarely* (and by rarely i mean 0.0000001%
> of the time) result in a stronger combined entity. it's usually (and
> by usually i mean 99.9999999% of the time) just a bigger loser. as
> i said, their only hope was to let one or the other go under, and
> just take over the contracts at pennies on the dollar.
>
> karmazin is not some brilliant businessman (where are you people
> getting this? from listening to howard's show for business advice?)
> it's a ridiculous notion. people thought the same thing about bernie
> ebbers -- he's so rich, he *must* be smart. well, he may be the smartest
> guy in federal prison today, so, good for him. karmazin is a putz.
> and he is largely to blame for the current condition of sat radio.
> it didn't get here by itself, you know.
>
> if you're holding this stock (and i'm not, so i am *not* trying to
> manipulate anything; do what you want), my only suggestion would
> be to get your $25/share while it's still trading on a recognized
> market. reverse splits, prayed-for help from cash-strapped Morgan,
> just trying to will the stock up to $0.41/share, it's all very sad.
> people aren't buying new cars, they sure as hell aren't going to
> buy sirius. and with siri effing up the channels? this is such a
> classic death spiral (with the attendant spectators on the ground
> (or, floating a foot or two off the ground, actually) watching it
> and saying, 'he's hurtling toward earth on *purpose*! what a genius!
> he'll pull up any second now. he has to! please pull up, please!'
> and then the plume of smoke behind the trees, and they're still saying,
> 'maybe he landed safely!'), it will be written about in business
> school for years. and you'll have the no-value stock certificates
> and tax write-offs to prove it. i wish you all luck, i honestly do.
> but i have to tell you, you sound like the most desperate, naive,
> inexperienced happy jacks in the investing world today. now, please
> excuse me... i have to take my cool $100 gift card to the sharper
> image store at the mall to pick up a golf bag with a built-in segway.
> :)]]> Sun, 16 Nov 2008 13:10:38 -0500

On Nov 16 01:01 PM shutupsitdown wrote:

> who cares? xm and siri should have fought until one of them went
> chapter 11, then chapter 7, and the other one scooped up the spoils.
> it was a good technology, and a good product (i'm a 5-radio xm subscriber,
> and got my first in 2003), but there is simply no expanding market
> for this service. people worried about their jobs won't pay for radio
> for the next few years.
>
> if you're holding onto a $0.25 stock in hopes that it will go to
> $0.42, that's just sad (unless you have 1,000,000 shares). this is
> all an academic argument. stocks under $2 are always a lot more likely
> to go to $0 than they are to return to the $2 level. and the only
> hope for this pointlessly combined company is that it will be able
> to stay on life support, lose more money, and *maybe* make most of
> its minimal debt payment on time, while cutting jobs, ruining the
> programming, and not offering a single new service feature for the
> next several years.
>
> as a company, sirius was poorly run (xm, too, most likely). combining
> two losing entities will *rarely* (and by rarely i mean 0.0000001%
> of the time) result in a stronger combined entity. it's usually (and
> by usually i mean 99.9999999% of the time) just a bigger loser. as
> i said, their only hope was to let one or the other go under, and
> just take over the contracts at pennies on the dollar.
>
> karmazin is not some brilliant businessman (where are you people
> getting this? from listening to howard's show for business advice?)
> it's a ridiculous notion. people thought the same thing about bernie
> ebbers -- he's so rich, he *must* be smart. well, he may be the smartest
> guy in federal prison today, so, good for him. karmazin is a putz.
> and he is largely to blame for the current condition of sat radio.
> it didn't get here by itself, you know.
>
> if you're holding this stock (and i'm not, so i am *not* trying to
> manipulate anything; do what you want), my only suggestion would
> be to get your $25/share while it's still trading on a recognized
> market. reverse splits, prayed-for help from cash-strapped Morgan,
> just trying to will the stock up to $0.41/share, it's all very sad.
> people aren't buying new cars, they sure as hell aren't going to
> buy sirius. and with siri effing up the channels? this is such a
> classic death spiral (with the attendant spectators on the ground
> (or, floating a foot or two off the ground, actually) watching it
> and saying, 'he's hurtling toward earth on *purpose*! what a genius!
> he'll pull up any second now. he has to! please pull up, please!'
> and then the plume of smoke behind the trees, and they're still saying,
> 'maybe he landed safely!'), it will be written about in business
> school for years. and you'll have the no-value stock certificates
> and tax write-offs to prove it. i wish you all luck, i honestly do.
> but i have to tell you, you sound like the most desperate, naive,
> inexperienced happy jacks in the investing world today. now, please
> excuse me... i have to take my cool $100 gift card to the sharper
> image store at the mall to pick up a golf bag with a built-in segway.
> :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106182-who-ll-blink-first-sirius-loral-or-the-banks?source=feed#comment-307240 307240
I've reading your posts as well as sl62 and have gotten quite a bit of insight. I have a question regarding your mffais concerns. You mention below that the Ameriprise data would be from around 7/29. If you look at the 13F-HR data for Ameriprise (which you did), there is a 5/6 filing, 8/12 filing and a 11/10 filing (There are others as well). Wouldn't the 8/12 filing show everything between 7/29 and their 5/6 filing and wouldn't their 11/10 filing show everything from at least 8/1 forward?

Just curious.. don't know what overlaps or maybe "fudging" of reporting happens with these filings.


On Nov 16 12:02 PM cos1000 wrote:

> s162
>
> A follow up to the mffais.com info
>
> Having seen sudden changes in mffais.com, mutual fund investment,
> data before, I did a little research using companies adding to their
> position as reported. Utilizing this info and that on Edgar on line
> I was able to understand why the sudden change in numbers being reported.
> As Sirius reported it 3Q numbers, so too did many of the Mutual Funds
> in the form of a SEC form 13F-HR. Now mffais gets its information
> directly from these SEC filings. The date mffais records is the SEC
> filing date, not the actual transaction date.
>
> For instance one transaction which caught my and others eye was the
> 174.7M shares purchase by Ameriprise and reported on mffais. Certainly
> these shares, if a current purchase ,would be significant in trying
> to figure out the financing or street sentiment. But nowhere other
> than mffais was this reported. In back tracking through Edgar, the
> transaction is recorded with a date on the 3Q 13F-hr as 174.7M shares
> at a purchase value of $99.6 M shares. This comes out to a $1.75
> putting the purchase at just at the merger of 7/29 IMHO.
>
> In checking into several of the other transactions recorded, since
> 11/3, I found that most transactions reported on mffais.com are from
> these mutual fund company 3Q filings on their 13F-HR forms. Although
> I believe that this still represents a positive trend, I do not see
> how the information reflects current MF manger's sentiment. If we
> apply the mffais reporting changes of the last two weeks to the filings
> of MFM's reporting to the SEC, the changes in mfais reflect this
> reporting not real time street sentiment.]]> Sun, 16 Nov 2008 12:41:55 -0500
I've reading your posts as well as sl62 and have gotten quite a bit of insight. I have a question regarding your mffais concerns. You mention below that the Ameriprise data would be from around 7/29. If you look at the 13F-HR data for Ameriprise (which you did), there is a 5/6 filing, 8/12 filing and a 11/10 filing (There are others as well). Wouldn't the 8/12 filing show everything between 7/29 and their 5/6 filing and wouldn't their 11/10 filing show everything from at least 8/1 forward?

Just curious.. don't know what overlaps or maybe "fudging" of reporting happens with these filings.


On Nov 16 12:02 PM cos1000 wrote:

> s162
>
> A follow up to the mffais.com info
>
> Having seen sudden changes in mffais.com, mutual fund investment,
> data before, I did a little research using companies adding to their
> position as reported. Utilizing this info and that on Edgar on line
> I was able to understand why the sudden change in numbers being reported.
> As Sirius reported it 3Q numbers, so too did many of the Mutual Funds
> in the form of a SEC form 13F-HR. Now mffais gets its information
> directly from these SEC filings. The date mffais records is the SEC
> filing date, not the actual transaction date.
>
> For instance one transaction which caught my and others eye was the
> 174.7M shares purchase by Ameriprise and reported on mffais. Certainly
> these shares, if a current purchase ,would be significant in trying
> to figure out the financing or street sentiment. But nowhere other
> than mffais was this reported. In back tracking through Edgar, the
> transaction is recorded with a date on the 3Q 13F-hr as 174.7M shares
> at a purchase value of $99.6 M shares. This comes out to a $1.75
> putting the purchase at just at the merger of 7/29 IMHO.
>
> In checking into several of the other transactions recorded, since
> 11/3, I found that most transactions reported on mffais.com are from
> these mutual fund company 3Q filings on their 13F-HR forms. Although
> I believe that this still represents a positive trend, I do not see
> how the information reflects current MF manger's sentiment. If we
> apply the mffais reporting changes of the last two weeks to the filings
> of MFM's reporting to the SEC, the changes in mfais reflect this
> reporting not real time street sentiment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104701-4-signs-for-further-caution-by-satellite-radio-investors-goldman?source=feed#comment-300221 300221 Huh? Sorry you came in all gargled and stupid on that one. I could have sworn you bashed the company and people who want to commit more capital in your first parapraph, then you talk about putting 5k more in on a "lottery ticket".


On Nov 07 07:54 AM Big Ben wrote:

> Anyone buying shares of Siri should have their head examined. I read
> all of the threads and comments on multiple websites and believe
> it or not there are people saying they won’t buy until the stock
> goes under .21! They do not want to buy in the .34-.22 range but
> around .21 its time to commit capital. Sheeple, we have been had!
> This stock blows! I can list multiple reasons why Mel should take
> the company into bankruptcy. They could emerge with new deals, wipe
> out the common (that includes my 7770 shares), and start their way
> to profitability much sooner. The Kool-Aid drinkers are out of control
> on this one! The stock has been on a free fall forever now, how could
> anyone say they are buying shares with a reverse split on the table?
> 50-1….you have to be kidding! Who gives a shit if we get de-listed?
> A reverse split of that magnitude signals the end of times.
>
> I do want to go on record saying the product is amazing and just
> yesterday I renewed my three subscriptions for the year. The customer
> service was amazing; they credited my account on my work truck. The
> services have been down on that vehicle for about 6months, which
> I have already paid. Internal wiring has caused it to not work; not
> their fault, but they gave me credit anyway. What I am getting at
> is the company/product is on one end of the spectrum and the stock
> is on the other. I have never seen a disconnect of this proportion.
> My investment in Siri is down around 85%, so where do you go from
> here? Jan 1 I can deposit another 5000$ into my IRA and if the stock
> split is voted down, I will dollar cost average with some of the
> money. If I spend a 1000$ I can pick up 5000shares if the stock is
> .20c. To some this may sound crazy but I am fully aware this stock
> is a lottery ticket and nothing more. Vote no to a reverse split!
>
>
> Big Ben…cautiously long Siri, forever long on the Steelers!]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 12:29:53 -0500 Huh? Sorry you came in all gargled and stupid on that one. I could have sworn you bashed the company and people who want to commit more capital in your first parapraph, then you talk about putting 5k more in on a "lottery ticket".


On Nov 07 07:54 AM Big Ben wrote:

> Anyone buying shares of Siri should have their head examined. I read
> all of the threads and comments on multiple websites and believe
> it or not there are people saying they won’t buy until the stock
> goes under .21! They do not want to buy in the .34-.22 range but
> around .21 its time to commit capital. Sheeple, we have been had!
> This stock blows! I can list multiple reasons why Mel should take
> the company into bankruptcy. They could emerge with new deals, wipe
> out the common (that includes my 7770 shares), and start their way
> to profitability much sooner. The Kool-Aid drinkers are out of control
> on this one! The stock has been on a free fall forever now, how could
> anyone say they are buying shares with a reverse split on the table?
> 50-1….you have to be kidding! Who gives a shit if we get de-listed?
> A reverse split of that magnitude signals the end of times.
>
> I do want to go on record saying the product is amazing and just
> yesterday I renewed my three subscriptions for the year. The customer
> service was amazing; they credited my account on my work truck. The
> services have been down on that vehicle for about 6months, which
> I have already paid. Internal wiring has caused it to not work; not
> their fault, but they gave me credit anyway. What I am getting at
> is the company/product is on one end of the spectrum and the stock
> is on the other. I have never seen a disconnect of this proportion.
> My investment in Siri is down around 85%, so where do you go from
> here? Jan 1 I can deposit another 5000$ into my IRA and if the stock
> split is voted down, I will dollar cost average with some of the
> money. If I spend a 1000$ I can pick up 5000shares if the stock is
> .20c. To some this may sound crazy but I am fully aware this stock
> is a lottery ticket and nothing more. Vote no to a reverse split!
>
>
> Big Ben…cautiously long Siri, forever long on the Steelers!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104056-auto-sales-good-news-on-the-horizon?source=feed#comment-298706 298706

On Nov 05 11:22 AM SiriuslyConsidering wrote:

> Just FYI all:
>
> AT&T has partnered up with RaySat to deliver 22 high quality
> video and 20 audio channels to the back seat of cars. They have launched
> a working preview of their services at SEMA 2008 with a consumer
> delivery promise set for sprint of 2009. Anticipated monthly services
> fees are $28.00.
>
>
> This is not the holly grail of a connected car, but AT&T has
> done a lot of hard work here that no other company has released yet.
>
>
>
> They have a relativity small Antenna
> They have about a minute of data caching 'baked in' to allow for
> driving through parking garages short tunnels and other structures.
>
> They have a commited shipping date
>
> Some juicy content deals appear to be done:
>
> “Disney Channel, Toon Disney, Discovery Kids, Animal Planet, Nickelodeon,
> Cartoon Network Mobile, USA, COMEDY CENTRAL, MSNBC, CNN Mobile Live
> and CNBC. Twenty satellite radio music channels will also be available
> at the launch.”
> ]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 11:44:27 -0500

On Nov 05 11:22 AM SiriuslyConsidering wrote:

> Just FYI all:
>
> AT&T has partnered up with RaySat to deliver 22 high quality
> video and 20 audio channels to the back seat of cars. They have launched
> a working preview of their services at SEMA 2008 with a consumer
> delivery promise set for sprint of 2009. Anticipated monthly services
> fees are $28.00.
>
>
> This is not the holly grail of a connected car, but AT&T has
> done a lot of hard work here that no other company has released yet.
>
>
>
> They have a relativity small Antenna
> They have about a minute of data caching 'baked in' to allow for
> driving through parking garages short tunnels and other structures.
>
> They have a commited shipping date
>
> Some juicy content deals appear to be done:
>
> “Disney Channel, Toon Disney, Discovery Kids, Animal Planet, Nickelodeon,
> Cartoon Network Mobile, USA, COMEDY CENTRAL, MSNBC, CNN Mobile Live
> and CNBC. Twenty satellite radio music channels will also be available
> at the launch.”
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102607-is-wienkes-hobbling-sirius-xm?source=feed#comment-293632 293632 I've wondered this exact thing about lack of advertising. This is what I hope is happening. With all the bad news that has been happening, do you feel it is a good time to be rolling out your new advertising? People are concerned with the economy and the upcoming election. Hopefully we will start to have a breath of fresh air after the elections and people can start looking to relax and look forward to the holidays.
Fast forward a bit to Thanksgiving. What's everyone doing on Thanksgiving? Sitting around and watching football. Which day is the busiest shopping day of the year? The day after Thanksgiving. It's the perfect time hit folks up with some great advertising. We'll see how it all plays out, but to me it makes good sense to start slowly rolling in some new advertising/promotions after the elections/Q3 results, then roll out heavy during the football games on Thanksgiving continuing through December. Maybe take a breather during the "off season", then hit it hard again during Spring/Early summer (Baseball season, boating season, etc...)
Before someone chimes in about folks not spending money this holiday season. We'll see, but I tell you what, I was at the local Best Buy this past Saturday and they were packed. Every parking spot was taken up. The malls were packed as well.

We'll all see soon enough.


On Oct 29 08:20 AM brandonland wrote:

> Not a single sirius ad during FOOTBALL this past weekend .........the
> only ads I have seen were on websites like perez hilton and egotastic....soley
> meant to recruit teens...........why is there no advertising...I
> mentioned the other day to a friend that the NFL on sirius is so
> great because you can listen to the Home and Away teams booth....it
> is great...they have sirius and they had no idea(dummdumm) CHRISTMAS
> IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 13:36:32 -0400 I've wondered this exact thing about lack of advertising. This is what I hope is happening. With all the bad news that has been happening, do you feel it is a good time to be rolling out your new advertising? People are concerned with the economy and the upcoming election. Hopefully we will start to have a breath of fresh air after the elections and people can start looking to relax and look forward to the holidays.
Fast forward a bit to Thanksgiving. What's everyone doing on Thanksgiving? Sitting around and watching football. Which day is the busiest shopping day of the year? The day after Thanksgiving. It's the perfect time hit folks up with some great advertising. We'll see how it all plays out, but to me it makes good sense to start slowly rolling in some new advertising/promotions after the elections/Q3 results, then roll out heavy during the football games on Thanksgiving continuing through December. Maybe take a breather during the "off season", then hit it hard again during Spring/Early summer (Baseball season, boating season, etc...)
Before someone chimes in about folks not spending money this holiday season. We'll see, but I tell you what, I was at the local Best Buy this past Saturday and they were packed. Every parking spot was taken up. The malls were packed as well.

We'll all see soon enough.


On Oct 29 08:20 AM brandonland wrote:

> Not a single sirius ad during FOOTBALL this past weekend .........the
> only ads I have seen were on websites like perez hilton and egotastic....soley
> meant to recruit teens...........why is there no advertising...I
> mentioned the other day to a friend that the NFL on sirius is so
> great because you can listen to the Home and Away teams booth....it
> is great...they have sirius and they had no idea(dummdumm) CHRISTMAS
> IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!]]>