cygnus

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

shut up and sit down


On Nov 16 01:01 PM shutupsitdown wrote:

> who cares? xm and siri should have fought until one of them went
> chapter 11, then chapter 7, and the other one scooped up the spoils.
> it was a good technology, and a good product (i'm a 5-radio xm subscriber,
> and got my first in 2003), but there is simply no expanding market
> for this service. people worried about their jobs won't pay for radio
> for the next few years.
>
> if you're holding onto a $0.25 stock in hopes that it will go to
> $0.42, that's just sad (unless you have 1,000,000 shares). this is
> all an academic argument. stocks under $2 are always a lot more likely
> to go to $0 than they are to return to the $2 level. and the only
> hope for this pointlessly combined company is that it will be able
> to stay on life support, lose more money, and *maybe* make most of
> its minimal debt payment on time, while cutting jobs, ruining the
> programming, and not offering a single new service feature for the
> next several years.
>
> as a company, sirius was poorly run (xm, too, most likely). combining
> two losing entities will *rarely* (and by rarely i mean 0.0000001%
> of the time) result in a stronger combined entity. it's usually (and
> by usually i mean 99.9999999% of the time) just a bigger loser. as
> i said, their only hope was to let one or the other go under, and
> just take over the contracts at pennies on the dollar.
>
> karmazin is not some brilliant businessman (where are you people
> getting this? from listening to howard's show for business advice?)
> it's a ridiculous notion. people thought the same thing about bernie
> ebbers -- he's so rich, he *must* be smart. well, he may be the smartest
> guy in federal prison today, so, good for him. karmazin is a putz.
> and he is largely to blame for the current condition of sat radio.
> it didn't get here by itself, you know.
>
> if you're holding this stock (and i'm not, so i am *not* trying to
> manipulate anything; do what you want), my only suggestion would
> be to get your $25/share while it's still trading on a recognized
> market. reverse splits, prayed-for help from cash-strapped Morgan,
> just trying to will the stock up to $0.41/share, it's all very sad.
> people aren't buying new cars, they sure as hell aren't going to
> buy sirius. and with siri effing up the channels? this is such a
> classic death spiral (with the attendant spectators on the ground
> (or, floating a foot or two off the ground, actually) watching it
> and saying, 'he's hurtling toward earth on *purpose*! what a genius!
> he'll pull up any second now. he has to! please pull up, please!'
> and then the plume of smoke behind the trees, and they're still saying,
> 'maybe he landed safely!'), it will be written about in business
> school for years. and you'll have the no-value stock certificates
> and tax write-offs to prove it. i wish you all luck, i honestly do.
> but i have to tell you, you sound like the most desperate, naive,
> inexperienced happy jacks in the investing world today. now, please
> excuse me... i have to take my cool $100 gift card to the sharper
> image store at the mall to pick up a golf bag with a built-in segway.
> :)

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

cos1000,

I've reading your posts as well as sl62 and have gotten quite a bit of insight. I have a question regarding your mffais concerns. You mention below that the Ameriprise data would be from around 7/29. If you look at the 13F-HR data for Ameriprise (which you did), there is a 5/6 filing, 8/12 filing and a 11/10 filing (There are others as well). Wouldn't the 8/12 filing show everything between 7/29 and their 5/6 filing and wouldn't their 11/10 filing show everything from at least 8/1 forward?

Just curious.. don't know what overlaps or maybe "fudging" of reporting happens with these filings.


On Nov 16 12:02 PM cos1000 wrote:

> s162
>
> A follow up to the mffais.com info
>
> Having seen sudden changes in mffais.com, mutual fund investment,
> data before, I did a little research using companies adding to their
> position as reported. Utilizing this info and that on Edgar on line
> I was able to understand why the sudden change in numbers being reported.
> As Sirius reported it 3Q numbers, so too did many of the Mutual Funds
> in the form of a SEC form 13F-HR. Now mffais gets its information
> directly from these SEC filings. The date mffais records is the SEC
> filing date, not the actual transaction date.
>
> For instance one transaction which caught my and others eye was the
> 174.7M shares purchase by Ameriprise and reported on mffais. Certainly
> these shares, if a current purchase ,would be significant in trying
> to figure out the financing or street sentiment. But nowhere other
> than mffais was this reported. In back tracking through Edgar, the
> transaction is recorded with a date on the 3Q 13F-hr as 174.7M shares
> at a purchase value of $99.6 M shares. This comes out to a $1.75
> putting the purchase at just at the merger of 7/29 IMHO.
>
> In checking into several of the other transactions recorded, since
> 11/3, I found that most transactions reported on mffais.com are from
> these mutual fund company 3Q filings on their 13F-HR forms. Although
> I believe that this still represents a positive trend, I do not see
> how the information reflects current MF manger's sentiment. If we
> apply the mffais reporting changes of the last two weeks to the filings
> of MFM's reporting to the SEC, the changes in mfais reflect this
> reporting not real time street sentiment.

4 Signs for Further Caution by Satellite Radio Investors - Goldman

Big Ben,
Huh? Sorry you came in all gargled and stupid on that one. I could have sworn you bashed the company and people who want to commit more capital in your first parapraph, then you talk about putting 5k more in on a "lottery ticket".


On Nov 07 07:54 AM Big Ben wrote:

> Anyone buying shares of Siri should have their head examined. I read
> all of the threads and comments on multiple websites and believe
> it or not there are people saying they won’t buy until the stock
> goes under .21! They do not want to buy in the .34-.22 range but
> around .21 its time to commit capital. Sheeple, we have been had!
> This stock blows! I can list multiple reasons why Mel should take
> the company into bankruptcy. They could emerge with new deals, wipe
> out the common (that includes my 7770 shares), and start their way
> to profitability much sooner. The Kool-Aid drinkers are out of control
> on this one! The stock has been on a free fall forever now, how could
> anyone say they are buying shares with a reverse split on the table?
> 50-1….you have to be kidding! Who gives a shit if we get de-listed?
> A reverse split of that magnitude signals the end of times.
>
> I do want to go on record saying the product is amazing and just
> yesterday I renewed my three subscriptions for the year. The customer
> service was amazing; they credited my account on my work truck. The
> services have been down on that vehicle for about 6months, which
> I have already paid. Internal wiring has caused it to not work; not
> their fault, but they gave me credit anyway. What I am getting at
> is the company/product is on one end of the spectrum and the stock
> is on the other. I have never seen a disconnect of this proportion.
> My investment in Siri is down around 85%, so where do you go from
> here? Jan 1 I can deposit another 5000$ into my IRA and if the stock
> split is voted down, I will dollar cost average with some of the
> money. If I spend a 1000$ I can pick up 5000shares if the stock is
> .20c. To some this may sound crazy but I am fully aware this stock
> is a lottery ticket and nothing more. Vote no to a reverse split!
>
>
> Big Ben…cautiously long Siri, forever long on the Steelers!

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

Pricing of the system has not been finalized, but AT&T anticipates that the antenna and satellite receiver will cost around $1,300,


On Nov 05 11:22 AM SiriuslyConsidering wrote:

> Just FYI all:
>
> AT&T has partnered up with RaySat to deliver 22 high quality
> video and 20 audio channels to the back seat of cars. They have launched
> a working preview of their services at SEMA 2008 with a consumer
> delivery promise set for sprint of 2009. Anticipated monthly services
> fees are $28.00.
>
>
> This is not the holly grail of a connected car, but AT&T has
> done a lot of hard work here that no other company has released yet.
>
>
>
> They have a relativity small Antenna
> They have about a minute of data caching 'baked in' to allow for
> driving through parking garages short tunnels and other structures.
>
> They have a commited shipping date
>
> Some juicy content deals appear to be done:
>
> “Disney Channel, Toon Disney, Discovery Kids, Animal Planet, Nickelodeon,
> Cartoon Network Mobile, USA, COMEDY CENTRAL, MSNBC, CNN Mobile Live
> and CNBC. Twenty satellite radio music channels will also be available
> at the launch.”
>

Is Wienkes Hobbling Sirius XM?

brandonland,
I've wondered this exact thing about lack of advertising. This is what I hope is happening. With all the bad news that has been happening, do you feel it is a good time to be rolling out your new advertising? People are concerned with the economy and the upcoming election. Hopefully we will start to have a breath of fresh air after the elections and people can start looking to relax and look forward to the holidays.
Fast forward a bit to Thanksgiving. What's everyone doing on Thanksgiving? Sitting around and watching football. Which day is the busiest shopping day of the year? The day after Thanksgiving. It's the perfect time hit folks up with some great advertising. We'll see how it all plays out, but to me it makes good sense to start slowly rolling in some new advertising/promotions after the elections/Q3 results, then roll out heavy during the football games on Thanksgiving continuing through December. Maybe take a breather during the "off season", then hit it hard again during Spring/Early summer (Baseball season, boating season, etc...)
Before someone chimes in about folks not spending money this holiday season. We'll see, but I tell you what, I was at the local Best Buy this past Saturday and they were packed. Every parking spot was taken up. The malls were packed as well.

We'll all see soon enough.


On Oct 29 08:20 AM brandonland wrote:

> Not a single sirius ad during FOOTBALL this past weekend .........the
> only ads I have seen were on websites like perez hilton and egotastic....soley
> meant to recruit teens...........why is there no advertising...I
> mentioned the other day to a friend that the NFL on sirius is so
> great because you can listen to the Home and Away teams booth....it
> is great...they have sirius and they had no idea(dummdumm) CHRISTMAS
> IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!