cygnus

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

sl62 and cos1000,
From the faq: www.sec.gov/divisions/...

Question 8
Q: What information must institutional investment managers report on Form 13F?
A: Among other things, Form 13F filings must include:

the issuer name of all Section 13(f) securities (which should be listed in alphabetical order);

a description of the class of security listed (e.g., common stock, put/call option, class A shares, convertible debenture);

the number of shares owned;

and
the fair market value of the securities listed, as of the end of the calendar quarter.

So that pretty much verifies that the numbers are simply FMV at the end of the quarter. Nothing really deceitful... just the rules/requirements.

ok, so at least there is "some" visibility. Not quite in the dark.. maybe more like in the house of mirrors :-)

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

sl62,
I didn't do any exhaustive research on this, but I think the only thing magical about .57 (thereabouts) is the fact that it is the price on the last day of the quarter. Throw a dart at any of those institutions. They all seem to come up with .57ish. But.. just to try it on something different, I looked at your Citigroup and picked Frontline Ltd. Came up with a price per share of 48.04. Any guess as to what the closing price on September 30th was? Checked for PepsiCo and had the same outcome. Shares "purchased" for 71.27 and closing price on 9/30 was 71.27.
So.. still useful, but I guess not "that" useful??


On Nov 16 09:57 PM sl62 wrote:

> cos1000...
>
> Much appreciate your diligence. And yes, you're right, these are
> for Q ended Sept.30. So slightly more backward-looking than we'd
> like. I guess to find out purchase dates we have to, as you and Cygnus
> have done, look at the paper trail. I did so for another new holding,
> Rockefeller Financial Services. Clicking on their hotlink, it took
> me to their holdings list, then at the top is their latest Form 13F
> link. Scrolling down to find the SIRI buy, it states they bought
> 1,534,101shares for $874,000. Doing that math, it means they paid
> .5697/sh. So then, I checked historical prices and found something
> interesting. On Sept 30, the intraday low is stated as .57. Now,
> the Rockefeller 13F info math says .5697...hmmm, maybe they rounded
> it off on the 13F? Maybe after hours price? But it is damn close
> so conceivable I suppose. Before Sept.30, SIRI never traded below
> .62 so the 30th would have to be it to make it into the Q numbers
> at those stated amounts. SIRI actually closed @ .57 on that day.
>
>
> Here's Citigroup's info:
> $13K 23380 SH = (my math) .5560
> $4K 6820 SH = (my math) .5865
> $2962K 5196657 SH = (my math) .5699
> $1K 1800 SH = (my math) .5555
> 300 526000 SH CALL
> 303 531800 SH PUT
>
> Now, again before Sept30, SIRI never traded below .62 and on the
> 30th, the set a new low of .57. So I don't know where the .55/sh
> come into play...but that's what it says on their 13F. A little confusing.
> Your Ameriprise seemed to suggest .57/sh. Which again only could
> have been transacted on the 30th (by way of historical prices).
>
>
> If it's true these purchases were made on Sept30, at these pps's,
> it stands to reason that most of these holders would still own their
> shares @ the current .27pps. Being large Funds, I would believe they
> would hold these at least a full Q if not longer. Typically, We the
> Peons, get no real help in trying to access up-to-date purchase info
> which might help us better understand what's going on.. There's probably
> more to this that we will not be able figure exactly. Anyway, I'm
> still encouraged by recent events and as always, we'll just have
> to wait and see how it keeps playing out. They sure don't make it
> easy on us do they?

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

cos1000 and SD, I think that nasdaq and mffais, right now anyway, match up pretty close on numbers. If you take out all the "sold all" lines and total everything up, you get to right around 38%. I've been tracking daily changes since late October and ownership has increased from 18% to 38%.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

Thanks cos1000. That puts the numbers into better perspective. I've been closely tracking the mffais/sec numbers and was aware that it was basically a snapshot of what transactions took place during the quarter. As you have done, I need to start digging deeper to put a significance on each of these big additions.

Still.. would seem to be a positive with the numbers steadily increasing. The further we move along, the further we get away from "merger numbers" and more into post merger accumulations/reductio...


On Nov 16 01:17 PM cos1000 wrote:

> cygnus
>
> You are write to check quarterly closing dates to make sure what
> is or isn't included. Ameriprise Financial 13F-HR filing of 11/10/08
> was for their quarter ending 9/30/08. That quarter then would be
> 7/1/08 - 9/30/08. The date that I site was from a candlestick chart
> review and 7/29 was a day that included the 1.75 price intra-day
> and the Volume that day was over 250M shares, so that is my estimated
> transaction date. The other filing dates you stated cover 1 Q ending
> March 30th and filed on 5/6 and 2Q ending on June 30 th and filed
> on 8/12. Most companies take 4-5 weeks from the quarters closing
> date to report their results to the SEC.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

shut up and sit down


On Nov 16 01:01 PM shutupsitdown wrote:

> who cares? xm and siri should have fought until one of them went
> chapter 11, then chapter 7, and the other one scooped up the spoils.
> it was a good technology, and a good product (i'm a 5-radio xm subscriber,
> and got my first in 2003), but there is simply no expanding market
> for this service. people worried about their jobs won't pay for radio
> for the next few years.
>
> if you're holding onto a $0.25 stock in hopes that it will go to
> $0.42, that's just sad (unless you have 1,000,000 shares). this is
> all an academic argument. stocks under $2 are always a lot more likely
> to go to $0 than they are to return to the $2 level. and the only
> hope for this pointlessly combined company is that it will be able
> to stay on life support, lose more money, and *maybe* make most of
> its minimal debt payment on time, while cutting jobs, ruining the
> programming, and not offering a single new service feature for the
> next several years.
>
> as a company, sirius was poorly run (xm, too, most likely). combining
> two losing entities will *rarely* (and by rarely i mean 0.0000001%
> of the time) result in a stronger combined entity. it's usually (and
> by usually i mean 99.9999999% of the time) just a bigger loser. as
> i said, their only hope was to let one or the other go under, and
> just take over the contracts at pennies on the dollar.
>
> karmazin is not some brilliant businessman (where are you people
> getting this? from listening to howard's show for business advice?)
> it's a ridiculous notion. people thought the same thing about bernie
> ebbers -- he's so rich, he *must* be smart. well, he may be the smartest
> guy in federal prison today, so, good for him. karmazin is a putz.
> and he is largely to blame for the current condition of sat radio.
> it didn't get here by itself, you know.
>
> if you're holding this stock (and i'm not, so i am *not* trying to
> manipulate anything; do what you want), my only suggestion would
> be to get your $25/share while it's still trading on a recognized
> market. reverse splits, prayed-for help from cash-strapped Morgan,
> just trying to will the stock up to $0.41/share, it's all very sad.
> people aren't buying new cars, they sure as hell aren't going to
> buy sirius. and with siri effing up the channels? this is such a
> classic death spiral (with the attendant spectators on the ground
> (or, floating a foot or two off the ground, actually) watching it
> and saying, 'he's hurtling toward earth on *purpose*! what a genius!
> he'll pull up any second now. he has to! please pull up, please!'
> and then the plume of smoke behind the trees, and they're still saying,
> 'maybe he landed safely!'), it will be written about in business
> school for years. and you'll have the no-value stock certificates
> and tax write-offs to prove it. i wish you all luck, i honestly do.
> but i have to tell you, you sound like the most desperate, naive,
> inexperienced happy jacks in the investing world today. now, please
> excuse me... i have to take my cool $100 gift card to the sharper
> image store at the mall to pick up a golf bag with a built-in segway.
> :)

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

cos1000,

I've reading your posts as well as sl62 and have gotten quite a bit of insight. I have a question regarding your mffais concerns. You mention below that the Ameriprise data would be from around 7/29. If you look at the 13F-HR data for Ameriprise (which you did), there is a 5/6 filing, 8/12 filing and a 11/10 filing (There are others as well). Wouldn't the 8/12 filing show everything between 7/29 and their 5/6 filing and wouldn't their 11/10 filing show everything from at least 8/1 forward?

Just curious.. don't know what overlaps or maybe "fudging" of reporting happens with these filings.


On Nov 16 12:02 PM cos1000 wrote:

> s162
>
> A follow up to the mffais.com info
>
> Having seen sudden changes in mffais.com, mutual fund investment,
> data before, I did a little research using companies adding to their
> position as reported. Utilizing this info and that on Edgar on line
> I was able to understand why the sudden change in numbers being reported.
> As Sirius reported it 3Q numbers, so too did many of the Mutual Funds
> in the form of a SEC form 13F-HR. Now mffais gets its information
> directly from these SEC filings. The date mffais records is the SEC
> filing date, not the actual transaction date.
>
> For instance one transaction which caught my and others eye was the
> 174.7M shares purchase by Ameriprise and reported on mffais. Certainly
> these shares, if a current purchase ,would be significant in trying
> to figure out the financing or street sentiment. But nowhere other
> than mffais was this reported. In back tracking through Edgar, the
> transaction is recorded with a date on the 3Q 13F-hr as 174.7M shares
> at a purchase value of $99.6 M shares. This comes out to a $1.75
> putting the purchase at just at the merger of 7/29 IMHO.
>
> In checking into several of the other transactions recorded, since
> 11/3, I found that most transactions reported on mffais.com are from
> these mutual fund company 3Q filings on their 13F-HR forms. Although
> I believe that this still represents a positive trend, I do not see
> how the information reflects current MF manger's sentiment. If we
> apply the mffais reporting changes of the last two weeks to the filings
> of MFM's reporting to the SEC, the changes in mfais reflect this
> reporting not real time street sentiment.