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riverdave

riverdave
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  • Amazon: The Future Growth Implied By Its Price To Sales Ratio [View article]
    Great point,
    This is one of the things that came into my head when I read this. With a few variations however. First, I think it is $89./yr but I will check my account records. Second, I feel that it is 'used' by most subscribers [both shipping and streaming] little enough to make it a profit center. Just sayin' ... Still, I would not place all of my chips on this bet without more information.

    You could buy put contracts of course, but then we are heading for Q4 reports that will reflect the 'peak' season for AMZN. How long the contracts and what is the strike $ ?

    For the record, I hold 2,000 + shares of the stock and some calls. That does not mean that I will not enter into put contracts come late January. I will still hold the stock because my wife and I own them at a very good price base.

    Best of luck to you all, and remember... DO YOUR HOMEWORK AND STUDY THE CHARTS! Other peoples opinions are of value, but in the end it is you that will take the hit or reap the reward.

    Best Regards, David
    Sep 26, 2012. 12:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon And Printing Books On Demand [View article]
    Hello, my name is David. I am a Barry Goldwater conservative, 62 years of age and very knowledgeable of AMZN and it's processes.
    I began my employment with Amazon.com in 2006. [I in no way speak for the company, this comment is only a FYI thing.]

    The article is well written and informative but it should be noted that there are three fulfillment centers that have this capacity, the 'print-on-demand' feature which at Amazon is called Make-on-Demand or just MOD. Make as opposed to Print because we also produce DVD's and CD's of titles out of print or not in demand in sufficient quantity to justify placing in inventory.

    One MOD unit [the largest] is located in Lexington, KY/USA, one in South Carolina [US] and one in Germany. The daily out-put at Lex 1 is on average 14 to 20 k units per day. This number is expected to grow as an investment has been made recently to expand the capacity of the Lex 1 unit.

    I hope this is helpful, David


    May 29, 2012. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The first Cyber Monday sales figures are pretty encouraging. IBM estimates early sales rose 24% Y/Y, and ChannelAdvisor claims its client sales via Amazon (AMZN +1.4%) and eBay (EBAY +5%) are up 52% and 57% Y/Y, respectively. IBM and comScore have already published strong figures for online Black Friday sales, as surging mobile activity helps boost demand, perhaps at the expense of traditional retailers. (holiday season forecast[View news story]
    The 'Bucket' tonight is 263k. And that is just one location in Kentucky. More than can be picked. Much the same for other FC's. Looks like 50 hour weeks the rest of the year.

    Does that look 'over-valued' ? 49 new Fulfillment Centers in the works in the coming few years. Great cash reserves. Yes profit margins are often slim, but try thinking about quantity. And of course that could be filed under 'The Economy of Scale'. But then I do not have a PhD in Economics, merely a BS and 40 years + in the real world.

    Now in fairness I should note that I worked for Amazon until my retirement last year and my wife still does. We have a large holding in the underlying stock and have placed call contracts that will cover the Q4 reports.

    Do your own 'homework' and make your call. [or put] But to quote a former Ops Manager when I was humbly asking for a change in the conveyer system ... "David, we are frugal, not cheap."

    Good trading, riverdave
    Nov 26, 2012. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shortly after having discontinued the oversized Kindle DX, Amazon (AMZN) appears to have discontinued the Kindle Touch, paidContent observes. That would leave the costlier and favorably-reviewed Kindle Paperwhite as Amazon's only touchscreen e-reader. Amazon, which is using aggressive pricing to prop up e-reader sales in the face of a tablet onslaught, also sells an inexpensive non-touchscreen Kindle and the legacy Kindle Keyboard[View news story]
    Interesting input but I was hoping for opinions on this weeks coming earnings report. Puts or Calls?

    Really, if I wanted product reviews ... well, there's an app. for that.

    May you win 64 % of your plays.

    David
    Oct 22, 2012. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's (AMZN) streaming deal with Epix, which did a number on Netflix (NFLX -9.9%) shares last month, apparently featured interesting terms. An exec involved in talks tells Reuters Epix will receive a payout above its fixed up-front fee if Amazon's streaming subs pass a certain threshold. A shift from fixed to variable licensing fees is arguably a negative for Netflix, since it could make it easier for smaller streaming providers to gain access to valuable content. (earlier[View news story]
    And the Moon also if I recall. Not joking on this my friend. Having met the man, Mr Bezos, a few times during my years with Amazon [I'm retired now] I know that he is a very driven man. Now I have shorted AMZN on occasion, but am still happy holding the underlying stock that my wife and I have acquired over the years.

    But I digress, he does have a plan to place a 'Hotel' in space and I do not doubt that he will make it happen. Great cash flow and huge cash reserves. P/E is an important indicator, but not the primary item in my investment picks.

    Good Trading to you, friend, I am certain you will do well as it seems you do your homework.


    Oct 9, 2012. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Are Not Amazon.com's Only Problem [View article]
    Yeah, quick question on this cash flow thing.

    As far as I have seen there has been a great surplus of cash for many years, that the company has finally put this cash to work in other areas [including acquisitions] bothers me very little; what good is cash if it is not out there working for you?

    P/E ratios are certainly a factor to look at in any investment; it remains that this company has always functioned on a small P/E and instead gone for the volume. Good strategy? Well it seems to have worked.

    Do I think this is over priced? Well yes, at this point in time. But do not buy any put options until just before the Q4 reports.

    For now I would go long. "Make hay while the sun shines." :-)

    Best regards, David
    Sep 26, 2012. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Won't Change Our View Of Amazon [View article]
    In fairness I should note that both my wife and I have many years in at AMZN and I hold a tier III position which while it gives me a little more insight, it does not put me in a position in which I could do an 'insider trading' thing, even if I were so inclined, which I am not.

    We do hold positions in AMZN beyond the vested stock from the company.We also hold some put contracts. I also hold a degree in economics and accounting, that plus the 'homework' on this investment as we would on any other.

    I do not always place a heavy value on P/E but it should always be considered. I like the charts and [in this case] rely ,somewhat, on my knowledge of the operating philosophy of this company.

    It does seem to be a little overvalued at this time but we will hold the stock and watch for the Q4 report. That will likely be a boost as the #'s will reflect the 'peak' season at which point we plan to sell a portion of the position for the profit and hold the rest for the long term. Then hope that I chose correctly on the puts.

    Please know that this is only my opinion and that I would hope that you do your own homework on ANY investment. It's not like Jeff Bezos and I get together when he is in town and have a beer.

    Good investing to you all, David
    Sep 10, 2012. 03:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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