1. the negative effect of the recession on the CA deficit 2. the negative effect of deleveraging on the real money supply (I imagine more than an offset to recent liquidity injections) 3. prices falling faster in the US than major trading partners
If the carry-trade using USD funding is not completely unwound yet, and in addition European banks continue to unwind their USD loans to emerging markets and Europe itself, that would be another reason.
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1. the negative effect of the recession on the CA deficit
2. the negative effect of deleveraging on the real money supply (I imagine more than an offset to recent liquidity injections)
3. prices falling faster in the US than major trading partners
If the carry-trade using USD funding is not completely unwound yet, and in addition European banks continue to unwind their USD loans to emerging markets and Europe itself, that would be another reason.