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bigjetsky

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  • 5 Stocks To Watch For Gains Next Week [View article]
    Re: AMRN

    Weak patents? Says who? First I've ever heard of this. They have 22 patents allowed and 30 pending in the US alone. Their main competitor, Lovaza, has 3. THREE.

    The fall over the last year was related to their launching alone, a result of the FDA delaying their decision on NCE status since July 2012's initial approval.

    Estimated peak sales have fallen drastically? Uh, what? They just launched an indication against an inferior drug marketed by a BP competitor and have begun taking market share. They have a new indication coming later this year, for which they will have the only FDA approved drug. Additionally, they have a huge ace up their sleeve with a statin combo pill that lowers cholesterol and inflammation more effectively than statin alone, and the previously-ignored atorvastin metabolite may in fact qualify for NCE at some point in the future. (They recently had this patent application changed to Track 1 and it should be allowed in the next couple of months.)

    Further, you cite April sales as counted in this quarterly earnings report. Negative, ghost rider. The $2.34M in revenues are for Q1 only: January, February and March. (And they really only had one week of official sales in January.) The company did show April script sales in the press release, but only as a surrogate for guidance -- they have not been counted yet.
    May 12 12:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Vascepa Sales Data Misleading [View instapost]
    Steve, thanks for the continued write-ups and insight.

    Do you (or anyone else here) have a solid list of pharmacies that do NOT report prescription data?

    We know that CVS, Walmart, Costco, and Target do not report data. That's 3 of the top 6 pharmacies nationwide, and 4 of the top 12 (as of Wikipedia's 2010 ranking). Does Walgreens report? If not, that means the top 3 pharmacies in the country are leaving a huge gap in the data set.

    Would be interesting to know. Thanks in advance.
    Apr 16 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Words Don't Match Their Numbers [View article]
    Matt, thanks for your article and analysis. I agree with you on all counts and have scaled into a put position over the last week.

    When debating this case in my head, there's only one thing that I get hung up on -- if the FTC/SEC/powers-that-be haven't gone after them up to this point, why would they now? (Other than it would it be too egregious not too with Ackman's spotlight pointed right at the evidence...)

    Thanks in advance.
    Jan 31 03:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    Steve, do you know if the company can receive a definitive answer any time regarding nce status (then notifying shareholders by PR), or are we all relegated to waiting another month for a possible answer via the next OB update?

    PS Thanks for all your insight throughout this process.
    Dec 14 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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