mogami_99

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi I love that term "Goodwill" it translates as "we spent too much"
You could just as well call it "blunder money" 4 billion in blunders last year. That's why they need a R/S and dilution. They are just a little too free with other peoples money. I don't really think there is all that much "Goodwill" in that 4 billion +

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, Have a nice weekend. Next week should be fun.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi R/S may be good for company. Not many prior examples of company pulling reverse show it working. (pretty much scares off the new investors required for company to produce revenue via new stock issues)
In no shape or form is it good for people holding stock when reverse occurs.
since profit results on a per share basis you might have the same value after split as before but potentional for recovery of lost investment is gone.
Remember market looks forward and when it sees a 1.00 stock produced by merging 5 .20cent stocks it sees the one stock headed back to .20 not moving higher. Everyone knows the now lower number of outstanding stocks is going to be increased by a new issue.
The only sound method of avoiding delisting is to raise the SP by increasing buyer demand. Investors need a future to believe in. If that future hints at a repeat of past the market will not be there.

A sound company does not require debt. Without debt the company can raise needed cash by stock issue. (always with intention at some point retiring the new issues)

Personally I no longer have faith in holding this stock long term. I am simply hoping it gets back to where I can get most of my investment back. Following a R/S I can sell knowing recovery is no longer possible.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi Something other then debt is holding price down. SP was much higher before it was clear debt was being dealt with. Sirius issued some 130 million new shares to resolve 90 million in feb debt and SP dropped by more then 50 percent of then current price. Does issuance of another .3 percent of stock to resolve debt produce a decline of more then 50 percent in SP?
Since market looks forward not back we must see what market sees (or is looking for but cannot find)
The answer is certainty about the reverse split. Since everyone understand investers will never recoup investment after R/S that is what has driven down price and wieght holding it down. I don't think anyone really doubts Sirius will survive. What they fear is their investment will not.

So is SP important to company? Since they use shares to pay debt they should understand they need SP to rise. What legal means do they have to increase price? One is to remove the uncertainy about the future.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, OK I was not certain exact amounts. At todays price sirius could repurchase 1 billion shares and still have cash for Feb debt. This would result in increase in SP and then they could issue new stocks for May debt.
(in April SP would allow new issue recouping the money spent to repurchase stocks today)
140 million spent in Dec results in S/P of .50 in April where issue of 280 million new shares returns the 140 million cash but still results in there being 720 million fewer shares then in Dec.
Sometime around Oct they repeat the process to help with Dec debt.

The point here for Sirius to take advantage of the .14 SP

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Sirius could improve stock price right away and as a result improve their position on loans.
The price is not down due to debt. It is down because of uncertainty concerning reverse splits and dilution.
The shorts are simply cashing in on this uncertainty. Shorts can't hold the price down if the market thinks the price is too low. (and buys)
1. Simply state there will be no R/S
2. Simply state no new stock issued while price below ___
3. Have insiders purchase stock (I don't mean give it to them I mean see them invest their own money in stock and show they are confident in future)
Company could really promote rise in SP by announcing once debt is resolved it intends on repurchasing stocks to lower outstanding shares.
5 percent of revenue put towards this would restore confidence.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, Feb debt is already handled. It is currently 210 mil and Siruis has 356 mil cash on hand. I think 300 mil is due in May and 400 mil in Dec

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, Well it seems I have been through several recessions already without noticing it. (I am 52)
The new 1 yr target for Sirius is .60 when I first found this stock it was 3.00+
Now I hope to see .30 again.
Just threw the very last bit of cash onto the bon fire. (I said this 3 times before but this time I mean it....really)

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi again, One thing no one addresses is there are far too many people employed by auto industry. Fewer workers being more efficent is one of changes that will have to come about in order to restore profitabilty to industry. The surplus workforce currently employed is going to have to find another home.
Perhaps a new company producing items no longer built in USA (like TV's)
Personally this is where I feel the 700 billion should have been spent. America needs to rebuild manufacturing capacity.
Not only does USA need to get off imprted oil it needs to get off imports of any good that is not produced by american labor.
Management needs to remember that Americans cannot purchase goods they build outside USA if Americans are not earning wages.
Trade agreements that result in cheap imports also result in citizens using goverment checks to purchase them. Somehow we have to convince business it is wiser to pay a little more at home and increase number of people who can afford to make purchase.
As a nation we need to stop using credit to aquire goods or property.
We seem to ignore fact that someone someday is going to have to pay for everything.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, There is no painless solution however the Big 3 are not going to go away. But if that did happen then Honda (built in Ohio) and Toyota (is it Kentucky?) would see increase in number of cars they sold resulting in higher demand from their suppliers.
There are several questions that need resolution.
1. Even if Big 3 get loan is their enough demand for them to turn a profit?
2. Do we provide jobs at tax payer expense even if this results in unwanted production?
3. Would it be better for country in long term to have workers layed off and aquire new skills that allow them to reenter workforce in other segment?
4. How does USA rebuild industry (not just auto)
Manufacturing has become such a small part of labor (outside auto industry) that USA no longer supplies goods to market (forgeign or domestic) This is root cause of many of our current problems and these problems will remain no matter how much money is thrown at them. Only a rebuilding of industry can bring about major improvement.
The finance business cannot restore economy.

So are unemployed auto workers cheaper on unemployment while retraining compared to sustaining current jobs producing cars that cannot be sold at profit?

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, Toyota has deal with Sirius as do Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi, Nissan,Porsche, Volkswagen, and Volvo (I missed a few and left off Big 3)
Need to get Honda on board

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, Sirius does have deals with Toyota and Honda right? If not they should.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, The problem is simple. Japanese companies building cars in USA sold same number as big 3. The difference was the Big 3 lost billions while the Japanese made billions. Can tax payer money change this? I think we also need to import Japanese management.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Hi, I cannot for the life of me figure out how the SP moves. Someone buys 5 millon shares and the price goes up .005. Next trade is someone selling 300 shares and price drops .01? (not talking just about today) Market opens and 1 share is sold for 5 cents over previous close and then the high for the entire day is this single share. (works for lows too)
Then you have 10 million shares bought and sold and price stays put only to fall for no apparent reason after a small (100 0r 200 shares) (I mean you have 10 or 15 trades of hundred thousand shares with no change and then the price drops and drops after 100 shares.
Since I have not a clue what drives price (I always thought it was demand)
I am not really a complainer so don't misinterpet me. I always look for the humour in events. I am also not attached emotionally to Sirus. (It's my money I miss at night)
I have learned quite a bit from this. There are quite a few decent people here sharing the experiance.
Lets see what tomorrow brings.