E Thomas St.'s Comments E Thomas St.'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/289078/comments Whatever happens on the upside, gold won't fall below $1,000/ounce again, says Marc Faber of Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: "Central banks are all the same. They are printers. Gold is maybe cheaper today than in 2001, given the interest rates." Gold now +1% to $1,113.80. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/36312?source=feed#comment-755570 755570 Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:43:04 -0500 The financial sector's five fatal flaws have created a monster that is draining the lifeblood of the real economy, professor William Black says: "The focus on finance carries a grave risk. Remember, the sole purpose of finance is to aid the real economy. Our ultimate focus needs to be on the real economy, which creates goods and services, our jobs, and our incomes." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/34145?source=feed#comment-715641 715641

On Oct 14 06:39 PM Tack wrote:

> Try running an economy with no financial system.]]> Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:03:28 -0400

On Oct 14 06:39 PM Tack wrote:

> Try running an economy with no financial system.]]> YouTube has changed the way we watch video and has become an indispensable part of the Web, now serving up a billion views per day, so at some point Google (GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt will have to deal with the fact that those views are netting an estimated $1.5M loss every day. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/33972?source=feed#comment-711039 711039
On Oct 09 04:48 PM Baeck wrote:

> At some point, simply placing ads all over everything ceases to be
> an option - mostly because no one actually pays attention to the
> ads, so they generate little revenue. What really remains to be
> seen is how many people view YouTube as indispensable enough to actually
> pay some amount of money for the service.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:27:58 -0400
On Oct 09 04:48 PM Baeck wrote:

> At some point, simply placing ads all over everything ceases to be
> an option - mostly because no one actually pays attention to the
> ads, so they generate little revenue. What really remains to be
> seen is how many people view YouTube as indispensable enough to actually
> pay some amount of money for the service.]]> Who else can share the blame for the housing bubble? How about urban planners? Differences in growth management may explain why California and Florida bubbled, but Georgia and Texas didn't - and may point the way to preventing the next one. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/33572?source=feed#comment-700831 700831 Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:29:37 -0400 As expected, the SEC proposes a ban on flash orders - sent to a small group of traders fractions of a second before being made public. The ban will have an unpredictable impact on high-frequency traders, who are just concerned that everyone hates them. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32714?source=feed#comment-681373 681373 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:40:19 -0400 America's biggest mall owner thinks it may be a somewhat more jolly holiday season for retailers than they think. David Simon of Simon Property Group (SPG) says some retailers have been too conservative about inventory after the previous year's heavy markdowns. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32591?source=feed#comment-679159 679159 Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:03:10 -0400 America's biggest mall owner thinks it may be a somewhat more jolly holiday season for retailers than they think. David Simon of Simon Property Group (SPG) says some retailers have been too conservative about inventory after the previous year's heavy markdowns. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32591?source=feed#comment-679146 679146 Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:56:30 -0400 Why Krugman's Analysis of Economists Is Wrong http://seekingalpha.com/article/160408-why-krugman-s-analysis-of-economists-is-wrong?source=feed#comment-668777 668777

On Sep 09 08:23 AM ValFitzAndrew wrote:

> Would this situation be better than when the "bean-counters" bubble
> up to the "top" and dehumanize the business. I DON'T THINK SO! :-(
> ]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 12:00:00 -0400

On Sep 09 08:23 AM ValFitzAndrew wrote:

> Would this situation be better than when the "bean-counters" bubble
> up to the "top" and dehumanize the business. I DON'T THINK SO! :-(
> ]]> Why Krugman's Analysis of Economists Is Wrong http://seekingalpha.com/article/160408-why-krugman-s-analysis-of-economists-is-wrong?source=feed#comment-666666 666666 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 12:28:59 -0400 Why REIT ETFs May Be Poised to Prosper After Recovery http://seekingalpha.com/article/159101-why-reit-etfs-may-be-poised-to-prosper-after-recovery?source=feed#comment-659063 659063
1 - I'm currently running some numbers on RevPar, Supply, Occupancy and hotel valuations over the past 5-10 years. I'll post some stats when I'm done.
2 - On cursory basis, I don't think a lot of players in the hotel industry can sustain another year of RevPar declining in double digits YoY or much of an absolute decrease from peak. There's been a huge expansion in supply, which in itself has presented non debt related problems. Refinancing has been beneficial on one side of the balance sheet but if we're looking for peak valuations again, the income side has to return.
3 - Which is precarious because of the impact that oil prices have on travel, either business or personal (and from everything I've seen come across my desk, business travel has been the big laggard). Can hotels survive a recovery if it results in less travel due to inflationary pressure? Perhaps.
]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:50:22 -0400
1 - I'm currently running some numbers on RevPar, Supply, Occupancy and hotel valuations over the past 5-10 years. I'll post some stats when I'm done.
2 - On cursory basis, I don't think a lot of players in the hotel industry can sustain another year of RevPar declining in double digits YoY or much of an absolute decrease from peak. There's been a huge expansion in supply, which in itself has presented non debt related problems. Refinancing has been beneficial on one side of the balance sheet but if we're looking for peak valuations again, the income side has to return.
3 - Which is precarious because of the impact that oil prices have on travel, either business or personal (and from everything I've seen come across my desk, business travel has been the big laggard). Can hotels survive a recovery if it results in less travel due to inflationary pressure? Perhaps.
]]> SEC and CFTC leaders Mary Schapiro and Gary Gensler take timid steps toward harmonization of their oversight at the regulators' first-ever (!) meeting this morning (webcast). Industry insiders say their turf war is hampering innovation. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/31771?source=feed#comment-658392 658392 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 11:46:01 -0400 The battle between FedEx (FDX) and the Teamsters warms up a bit as the union urges shareholders to separate the CEO and chairman positions at the company, a proposal which got 34% support last year. The Teamsters represent drivers at UPS (UPS) and dispute FedEx classifying its drivers as self-employed entrepreneurs. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/31591?source=feed#comment-655133 655133 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:27:54 -0400 The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission charges AT&T (T +0.8%) with age discrimination. A lawsuit filed in Manhattan says the phone company's policy not to rehire employees who retired from the company discriminates against over-40 workers. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/30971?source=feed#comment-638434 638434

On Aug 20 01:54 PM Anthony Alfidi wrote:

> I suspect we'll see a lot more of this as Baby Boomers run back to
> the workforce to pay for the retirements they can no longer afford.
> Gens X-Z will lose big time.]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 14:04:27 -0400

On Aug 20 01:54 PM Anthony Alfidi wrote:

> I suspect we'll see a lot more of this as Baby Boomers run back to
> the workforce to pay for the retirements they can no longer afford.
> Gens X-Z will lose big time.]]> The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission charges AT&T (T +0.8%) with age discrimination. A lawsuit filed in Manhattan says the phone company's policy not to rehire employees who retired from the company discriminates against over-40 workers. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/30971?source=feed#comment-638429 638429 Thu, 20 Aug 2009 14:01:45 -0400 Breaking with consensus, Bloomberg's Matthew Lynn thinks investors have no right to pry into Steve Jobs' health, or that of any CEO. "There are all sorts of things that can go wrong with a company. Shareholders can't be protected from every type of risk." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/27904?source=feed#comment-587803 587803 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:43:05 -0400 Once you look at the big picture, this month's gains in auto sales don't really look all that great. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/27145?source=feed#comment-570581 570581 Wed, 01 Jul 2009 17:40:07 -0400 Blaming efficient market hypothesis for our troubles is naive and distracts us from real issues, says Pablo Triana: "It's not... that regulators allowed the insane leverage to take place because their brains repeatedly flashed out the 'markets are efficient, markets are efficient!' signal." (previously) http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/26402?source=feed#comment-557466 557466 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:46:47 -0400 An excellent article by Pimco's Paul McCulley explains why so many pundits are totally wrong about the Fed needing to soak up all those excess reserves, or risk inflation. They're forgetting the clincher: the Fed's newfound ability to pay interest on banks' excess reserves. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/26177?source=feed#comment-551366 551366 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:59:41 -0400 Are you a smarter investor than a 5th-grader? Warning: these kids are smart. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/26079?source=feed#comment-549351 549351 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:33:22 -0400 After years of speculation, a new study suggests stimulant medications - specifically Ritalin (CELG, NVS) and Concerta (JNJ) - used to treat ADD may have played a role in sudden, unexplained deaths in children. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25970?source=feed#comment-547529 547529 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 15:05:22 -0400 More than 7% of U.S. homeowners are now behind in their mortgage payments, Equifax says, an increase of 58.4% from a year ago. Meanwhile credit card accounts dropped to 365M from a peak of 440M as firms have sucked more than $600B out of the system. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25877?source=feed#comment-544176 544176

On Jun 12 01:36 PM cyclingscholar wrote:

> Of this 7%, can we try and discern two groups? (1) those in legitimate
> need of help, late on payments due to job loss, or health problems,
> or other unforseeable (in many cases) expenses, and (2) those who
> overstretched themselves, bought too much house, clearly hoped rising
> prices would 'bail them out' of their deep risky financial hole.
>
>
> There is a legitimate social net that should be offered to (1). Those
> in category (2) should be left to whither on the vine.]]> Fri, 12 Jun 2009 13:46:26 -0400

On Jun 12 01:36 PM cyclingscholar wrote:

> Of this 7%, can we try and discern two groups? (1) those in legitimate
> need of help, late on payments due to job loss, or health problems,
> or other unforseeable (in many cases) expenses, and (2) those who
> overstretched themselves, bought too much house, clearly hoped rising
> prices would 'bail them out' of their deep risky financial hole.
>
>
> There is a legitimate social net that should be offered to (1). Those
> in category (2) should be left to whither on the vine.]]> Former labor secretary Robert Reich, for one, thinks the deficit hawks are all worked up over nothing: "We ought to temper our worries by understanding the larger context," he says, noting debt pulled the U.S. out of the Great Depression, and has spurred unprecedented growth over the past 75 years. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25827?source=feed#comment-542608 542608 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:13:45 -0400 TARP worked, Hank Paulson says, citing as proof the fact that a majority of banks are now readying to exit the program. Which has Felix Salmon scratching his head: "If you give people a bunch of money they don’t want, and then reluctantly accept that you’ll allow them to repay it, then you must have achieved something substantial, right?" http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25709?source=feed#comment-540660 540660 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:04:31 -0400 While others scramble to escape TARP, Wells Fargo (WFC) - which opposed the Treasury's $25B loan back in October - hasn't applied to repay. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25705?source=feed#comment-539578 539578

On Jun 09 05:35 PM herbert hoover wrote:

> Maybe they looked at the crap they bought from WaMu and realized
> they're gonna need the cash]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 19:34:15 -0400

On Jun 09 05:35 PM herbert hoover wrote:

> Maybe they looked at the crap they bought from WaMu and realized
> they're gonna need the cash]]> First came the bailout, now comes the burnishing, as banks try to portray themselves as friends of the public. Says one bank's marketing chief: "Individuals and companies want to... get on with their lives. They want the banking industry to help them.” http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25651?source=feed#comment-539124 539124 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:59:08 -0400 Ten Year Inflation Worries http://seekingalpha.com/article/142186-ten-year-inflation-worries?source=feed#comment-539004 539004
Something has to give and the sellers don't control interest rates. ]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:13:27 -0400
Something has to give and the sellers don't control interest rates. ]]> Green Shoots Are Poisonous to Your Wealth http://seekingalpha.com/article/141934-green-shoots-are-poisonous-to-your-wealth?source=feed#comment-537780 537780
On Jun 08 04:38 PM thiazole wrote:

> That has to be the most absurd thing I've every heard. 90% of the
> economy is psychological. The economy doesn't go bad to "punish
> bad behavior". If you don't understand that, then look into Krugman's
> analysis of the "Capitol Hill Babysitting Coop". It does a good
> job of explaining what you don't understand. If anyone was an economic
> terrorist, it would clearly be the pessimists who are trying to incite
> panic. The more people panic, the worse the economy will get. You
> can have all the fundamentals for a good economy and be in a never
> ending depression because of pessimistic psychology. Just look at
> Japan's economy.]]> Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:33:05 -0400
On Jun 08 04:38 PM thiazole wrote:

> That has to be the most absurd thing I've every heard. 90% of the
> economy is psychological. The economy doesn't go bad to "punish
> bad behavior". If you don't understand that, then look into Krugman's
> analysis of the "Capitol Hill Babysitting Coop". It does a good
> job of explaining what you don't understand. If anyone was an economic
> terrorist, it would clearly be the pessimists who are trying to incite
> panic. The more people panic, the worse the economy will get. You
> can have all the fundamentals for a good economy and be in a never
> ending depression because of pessimistic psychology. Just look at
> Japan's economy.]]> Guess who's still screwing homeowners? http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25496?source=feed#comment-532420 532420 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 17:03:46 -0400 According to a new report, the average U.S. home price is undervalued by 12.2%. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25476?source=feed#comment-532018 532018 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:12:42 -0400 According to a new report, the average U.S. home price is undervalued by 12.2%. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25476?source=feed#comment-532011 532011 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:07:52 -0400