E Thomas St.

Why REIT ETFs May Be Poised to Prosper After Recovery

We'll have to wait and see on hotels;

1 - I'm currently running some numbers on RevPar, Supply, Occupancy and hotel valuations over the past 5-10 years. I'll post some stats when I'm done.
2 - On cursory basis, I don't think a lot of players in the hotel industry can sustain another year of RevPar declining in double digits YoY or much of an absolute decrease from peak. There's been a huge expansion in supply, which in itself has presented non debt related problems. Refinancing has been beneficial on one side of the balance sheet but if we're looking for peak valuations again, the income side has to return.
3 - Which is precarious because of the impact that oil prices have on travel, either business or personal (and from everything I've seen come across my desk, business travel has been the big laggard). Can hotels survive a recovery if it results in less travel due to inflationary pressure? Perhaps.