E Thomas St.

Green Shoots Are Poisonous to Your Wealth

Yeah, if only those Japanese were more positive, then they'd be fine. Do you have any more shallow pop philosophy tidbits to share with us?

On Jun 08 04:38 PM thiazole wrote:

> That has to be the most absurd thing I've every heard. 90% of the
> economy is psychological. The economy doesn't go bad to "punish
> bad behavior". If you don't understand that, then look into Krugman's
> analysis of the "Capitol Hill Babysitting Coop". It does a good
> job of explaining what you don't understand. If anyone was an economic
> terrorist, it would clearly be the pessimists who are trying to incite
> panic. The more people panic, the worse the economy will get. You
> can have all the fundamentals for a good economy and be in a never
> ending depression because of pessimistic psychology. Just look at
> Japan's economy.

More on Roubini and Shiller's Dour Outlook

Except the causes of this recession are not pedestrian like the early 90s one was. It is not an excess of production and stagnating inventories that caused this, it was a debt bubble popping and popping hard.

And long term investor should hope for a deeper recession.

On Mar 12 09:54 PM Yamaka wrote:

> I believe the Stock Market will settle around 825 for SP500 in a
> few weeks because the 52 week earnings in the last 12 months is $55
> (Bryini, as reported by WSJ).
>
> For the year end, it will hit 1125, as the expected earnings for
> the next 12 months is $75. A P/E of 15 is the long term average.
> If this happens, then this is just yet another pedestrian recession,
> which happens once in 6-8 years. Long term investors need not worry!

Close to the End of the Selling Cycle

This stood out to me today as well. Wednesday (and Friday to a very weak extent) of last week was one of those days where the financial sector got beat down despite it being an up day for the rest of the market, and today the opposite occurred where the rest of the market took a hit but financials held about even or slightly up.

I don't think this is indicative of a turn around but it is interesting to note.


On Mar 09 12:56 PM The Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> The short squeeze is coming. Looks like there is a massive short
> covering play setting up in the financial sector. There was big hedge
> fund buying of calls and call spreads in the Financials Select Sector
> SPDR ETF (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) at the end of last
> week. The healthy components of this basket, like JP Morgan (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> (12%), Goldman Sachs (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) (7%), and
> Wells Fargo (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) (6%), are at record
> low valuations. The sick one like Citigroup (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> and Bank of America (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) are essentially
> at zero. This makes your downside risk very low. Watch this space.

Investing and Trading in a Socialist Economy

And despite inflation what kind of currency remains? Yeah, thought so.

The Shedlock-Schiff Affair: A Chronicle

Even if Mish is a nut, the question isn't invalid. Even if Schiff was "correct" what importance does that have given that he wasn't able to profit off being correct? Are there government grants for soothsaying now?

Baltic Dry Index: The Best Economic Indicator You've Never Heard of

Unless the hedge funds are booking the ships at higher than market rates to increase the BDI to then profit off equity plays. Such an action would make that hedge fund the most efficiency challenged hedge fund ever.


On Jan 30 11:16 AM auto44 wrote:

> Correct me if I am wrong. Hedge fund bets don't change the index.
> The index is the weighted compilation of actual prices charged for
> shipping by different type carriers.
>
>
> On Jan 30 05:47 AM ROLEX18K wrote: