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David Levner

David Levner
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  • The Reopening Of Iran And How To Play It: Part 2 (U.S. Companies Which Are Potential Beneficiaries) [View article]
    If a deal with Iran goes through, a major effect (in my opinion) will be an increasing glut of crude and possibly other petroleum products.
    Nov 27, 2013. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Is Ready To Bounce Back [View article]
    The author wrote: "The U.S. population will rise to 1.2 billion by the middle of the century from the current level of 4.3 billion."

    Thanks. I needed a good laugh.
    Nov 20, 2013. 10:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Apple, Short The Eurozone [View article]
    What mechanism do you suggest for shorting the Eurozone?
    Mar 25, 2013. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's significant erosion in the post-Cyprus rally, with Europe 1% or more off the highs, the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) +0.6%. Italy (EWI) is well into the red,-1.2%. The euro has dropped 100 pips from its overnight high, now buying $1.2941. FXE -0.4% premarket. S&P 500 futures cut their gains more than 50%, SPY +0.2%[View news story]
    The IMF/EU loans to Cyprus are based on the "rosy" assumption of a small economic contraction. Instead, it is obvious that Cyprus will suffer a Greek style depression. Because Cyprus's GDP will fall, the debt/GDP ratio will rise and Cyprus will not be able to pay back the loans without further loans. In short, Cyprus will soon be insolvent if it is not already.
    Mar 25, 2013. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forgo The Risk Of Intel For The Same High Yield Of Dow Chemical [View article]
    Although many people and companies are buying phone and pad devices instead of PCs, these newer devices depend on the Internet to get useful work done (as do most PCs). On the back end (in the cloud, if you like), there is a need for more and more servers. Who makes the CPUs for those servers? Many of them are made by Intel.

    Chip making is an extremely capital-intensive business. Moore's Law will not break all of a sudden, it will decay: the increases in chip density and performance will be harder to achieve in the future. That will favor the chip makers with the deepest pockets: Intel and Samsung.

    I think that the "death of the PC" is 1) overblown and 2) will not stymie Intel in the long run. Therefore, I consider the recent downward trend in Intel's stock price to be a buying opportunity.

    One last point: the computer revolution is far from over. Computers are to the 21st century what electricity was to the 20th: a transformative technology. Unless it stumbles badly, by over-investing in a technology that does not pan out, I believe Intel should grow a lot more than Dow over the next 10-20 years.
    Nov 21, 2012. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fiscal Cliff Paradox [View article]

    I agree with your investment conclusions but I'd like to suggest a different solution to the "fiscal cliff" dilemma. Whether the federal budget is sustainable or unsustainable is not a binary question because there are degrees of sustainability. What we need is a fiscal ramp that will take us from the current large budget deficit to lower deficits over a period of years. The slope should be gentle enough so that it does not cause a crash and so that businesses and individuals can rationally plan for it.

    I am not especially hopeful that Congress will find its way to the fiscal ramp. I think extending the cliff a little further is the most likely outcome.
    Nov 8, 2012. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The U.S. Is Europe: Central Bank Deficit Funding Thinly Veiled [View article]
    The author wrote, "the artificial demand created by the Fed is the only thing keeping the Treasury market afloat."

    I don't believe this statement is true. Replace "only thing" with "one of the things" and I would agree with it.

    Would the author like to support his statement with some evidence?
    Sep 29, 2012. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain And Italy's Faustian Bargain With Germany [View article]

    You make some good points. I would like to point out a back-door that would allow the ECB to get involved in bond-buying: the ECB could issue the ESM a banking license and then loan euros to it.

    There would still be constraints. First, as you point out, the ESM would need most of the other EU members to approve bond purchases. Second, the ESM would have to post collateral with the ECB--and I'm not sure if the ECB would allow the bonds of the shaky sovereigns to be used as collateral.

    Keep up the good work.


    P.S. To short Europe, a U.S. investor can short ETFs such as EWG (Germany), EWI (Italy) or EWP (Spain). I covered my EWG short before the Greek election, and I initiated an EWI short during the rally on Friday, June 29.
    Jul 2, 2012. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's cuts Morgan Stanley's (MS) rating two notches - to Baa1 from A2; 10 other firms by two notches and four firms by one notch (largely as expected).  [View news story]
    I covered my MS short last week because I was afraid that the stock would rise if the downgrade was less than expected.
    Jun 22, 2012. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Need To Buy JPMorgan [View article]
    I am long JPM and short C. This is a new trade, and so far I am down slightly. My core belief is that JPM is better managed than C.
    Jun 5, 2012. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Buy JP Morgan While The Stock Is Cheap [View article]
    Rather than comparing JPM to the market as a whole, I think it's more appropriate to compare to other large financial institutions. If you do that, the stock is not so cheap.

    I agree that JPM is better managed than most of its competitors, which is a good reason to buy it. I'm not sure that today is the right entry point with more bad news coming from Europe.
    May 23, 2012. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Limits Of Monetary Policy In A Liquidity Trap [View article]
    Thanks Brad for your thought-provoking article.

    One of your main points was that policy should attempt to get we, the people, to buy more stuff that we were close to buying anyway. Clearly, one of the best ways to do that is to lower the price of that stuff a little bit. But today, the U.S. government can't directly affect the price of most stuff--because there is no national value-added tax (VAT).

    It seems that a national VAT would be a useful fiscal tool. If there was a VAT, then the federal government could lower it by 1 or 2% temporarily to spur the economy.

    I am aware that consumption taxes like a VAT are a burden for the lower and middle classes, so its introduction should be accompanied by income tax cuts that are proportionately greater for those who are income-challenged. Ideally, a well-designed VAT/income tax package would be revenue-neutral for the government and for most taxpayers.
    Mar 12, 2012. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side of the OECD Oil Inventory Release [View article]
    I believe that the release of oil from the SPR is entirely political and is aimed at Iran. The FT recently published an article about how Saudi Arabia is considering using its "oil weapon" to flood the markets with oil and cause Iran financial hardship. The U.S., and some of its European allies, are probably cooperating with the Saudis.
    Jun 23, 2011. 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case for Going Long Petrobras and Short Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Windsun, I respect your answer and I agree with you about the price of oil. However, I have been known to be wrong in the past.

    The point of a hedged trade is to lower your risk by eliminating your dependence on some external factor such as the price of oil. If I can choose an oil company that is "weaker" than PBR, then the trade will be profitable whether or not the price of oil rises or falls.

    If we are right about the price of oil, going long will be more profitable. But that is a different type of bet.
    May 27, 2011. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case for Going Long Petrobras and Short Exxon Mobil [View article]
    I agree with tdizzle. I do like PBR, and I do like hedged trades. Which oil company should be shorted instead of XOM?
    May 26, 2011. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment