jvi's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/289629/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/106078-amazon-apple-google-buying-on-the-way-down?source=feed#comment-306320 306320
And remember, if you wait too long, you can miss the opportunity. You can never know if it's THE bottom until after an extended rally. And the way things have been, I would not be surprised in the least if "the" rally we're all waiting for takes everyone by surprise and climbs at a record setting pace. If that happens, you can easily miss the boat on the bargains.]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:04:42 -0500
And remember, if you wait too long, you can miss the opportunity. You can never know if it's THE bottom until after an extended rally. And the way things have been, I would not be surprised in the least if "the" rally we're all waiting for takes everyone by surprise and climbs at a record setting pace. If that happens, you can easily miss the boat on the bargains.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105742-if-only-hope-were-an-investment-strategy?source=feed#comment-304805 304805
Funds are liquidating, dumping shares indiscriminately. Take advantage of the bargains because the redemption notice period ends December 1. ]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 03:25:05 -0500
Funds are liquidating, dumping shares indiscriminately. Take advantage of the bargains because the redemption notice period ends December 1. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105716-thursday-outlook-new-lows?source=feed#comment-304751 304751 Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:43:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105623-is-buffett-really-losing-his-touch?source=feed#comment-304113 304113 Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:51:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105060-will-apple-s-q1-2009-revenue-estimates-be-a-blowout?source=feed#comment-303617 303617
On Nov 10 03:55 PM buffeted wrote:

> I agree that Apple will do MUCH BETTER than expected for this Q,
> but what is going on now, and will continue until after thanksgiving
> before it gets any better, is HEDGEFUND LIQUIDATON! THE FAVORITE
> place to play for hedgefunds for the last 2 years has been AAPL and
> now its time to sell or die. Probably, this is the best time to sell
> a covered call on aapl for a Nov. expiraton that I can remember.
> Any strength in Aapl will result in huge valume selling. Also, dont
> be surprised to read some more bearish B.S. by anlysts on the payrolls
> of banks running the funds in the next week 4 to 8 weeks.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 22:09:53 -0500
On Nov 10 03:55 PM buffeted wrote:

> I agree that Apple will do MUCH BETTER than expected for this Q,
> but what is going on now, and will continue until after thanksgiving
> before it gets any better, is HEDGEFUND LIQUIDATON! THE FAVORITE
> place to play for hedgefunds for the last 2 years has been AAPL and
> now its time to sell or die. Probably, this is the best time to sell
> a covered call on aapl for a Nov. expiraton that I can remember.
> Any strength in Aapl will result in huge valume selling. Also, dont
> be surprised to read some more bearish B.S. by anlysts on the payrolls
> of banks running the funds in the next week 4 to 8 weeks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104974-nassim-taleb-renegade-trader-with-renegade-ideas-that-work?source=feed#comment-301599 301599
And this sort of bear market bet he made is not his only strategy. The vast majority of the money is kept safe while a small portion is used to make risky bets. This can be getting in early on a future positive black swan, like the next google. He favors tech and ingenuity. Anything that involves tinkering.

He recomends staying away from businesses that bet against a black swan occurance, such as insurance and banking. Eh, just read the book. It's very, very nuanced. And finance is just a small part of it.


On Nov 09 11:23 AM captainccs wrote:

> It takes a very special kind of personality to be able to lose time
> and time again, hundreds of times, before getting a win. Also, there
> is no way to predict these rare and unusual results so what Taleb
> is really playing is the mis-pricing of options. Playing options
> with Black-Scholes is like playing carps with loaded dice.
>
> My point is this: If you play any casino game long enough the house
> is going to make the vigorish and you are going to lose it. Taleb
> makes hundreds of bets and most lose small and a few win big. If
> he can make money doing that it means that the options he is buying,
> in the aggregate, are underpriced while the big winners are overpriced.
> It's either that or Taleb has enough prediction abilities to milk
> a fair system. This last is doubtful by his own admission.
>
> Taleb should probably shut down Universa Investments when the bear
> market ends. In a bull market the mis-pricing of put options might
> not be enough to make money his way. Last year I was buying out-of-the-money
> call options and did quite well. That ended with the onset of the
> bear market. During the bear market I'm making money selling call
> options. Buy the bull and sell the bear.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 01:26:26 -0500
And this sort of bear market bet he made is not his only strategy. The vast majority of the money is kept safe while a small portion is used to make risky bets. This can be getting in early on a future positive black swan, like the next google. He favors tech and ingenuity. Anything that involves tinkering.

He recomends staying away from businesses that bet against a black swan occurance, such as insurance and banking. Eh, just read the book. It's very, very nuanced. And finance is just a small part of it.


On Nov 09 11:23 AM captainccs wrote:

> It takes a very special kind of personality to be able to lose time
> and time again, hundreds of times, before getting a win. Also, there
> is no way to predict these rare and unusual results so what Taleb
> is really playing is the mis-pricing of options. Playing options
> with Black-Scholes is like playing carps with loaded dice.
>
> My point is this: If you play any casino game long enough the house
> is going to make the vigorish and you are going to lose it. Taleb
> makes hundreds of bets and most lose small and a few win big. If
> he can make money doing that it means that the options he is buying,
> in the aggregate, are underpriced while the big winners are overpriced.
> It's either that or Taleb has enough prediction abilities to milk
> a fair system. This last is doubtful by his own admission.
>
> Taleb should probably shut down Universa Investments when the bear
> market ends. In a bull market the mis-pricing of put options might
> not be enough to make money his way. Last year I was buying out-of-the-money
> call options and did quite well. That ended with the onset of the
> bear market. During the bear market I'm making money selling call
> options. Buy the bull and sell the bear.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104974-nassim-taleb-renegade-trader-with-renegade-ideas-that-work?source=feed#comment-301253 301253 Sun, 09 Nov 2008 13:02:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103802-apple-s-future-in-the-mobile-phone-market?source=feed#comment-298175 298175 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 13:33:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103169-who-will-win-the-home-entertainment-battle?source=feed#comment-295596 295596
No one can match the simple lifestyle integration Apple is already starting to offer. Within 5 years or so, I predict Apple will provide a seamlessly synchronized personal network for consumers. Everyone will have three simple and powerful devices: an iphone (or whatever it evolves into), a macbook (or future equivalent...think macbook air, but several times more powerful than the current macbook pro), and an Apple home server that is constantly backed up in "the cloud" (Time Machine meets MobileMe). Here's the key: they will be beautiful, well-built, and idiot-proof...somethin... MicroSoft, Sony, and others seem unable to pull off nearly as well.
]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 02:14:01 -0400
No one can match the simple lifestyle integration Apple is already starting to offer. Within 5 years or so, I predict Apple will provide a seamlessly synchronized personal network for consumers. Everyone will have three simple and powerful devices: an iphone (or whatever it evolves into), a macbook (or future equivalent...think macbook air, but several times more powerful than the current macbook pro), and an Apple home server that is constantly backed up in "the cloud" (Time Machine meets MobileMe). Here's the key: they will be beautiful, well-built, and idiot-proof...somethin... MicroSoft, Sony, and others seem unable to pull off nearly as well.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102781-is-it-time-for-apple-to-buy-back-some-shares?source=feed#comment-295589 295589
It definitely seems like a ploy to get a price spike before dumping shares...]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 01:17:46 -0400
It definitely seems like a ploy to get a price spike before dumping shares...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102941-share-buybacks-make-apple-sweeter?source=feed#comment-295511 295511 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 21:02:29 -0400