jepittman's Comments

Sysco Raises Dividend 4.1%

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:26:19 -0500

Sysco (SYY) is one of the more consistent performers in the consumer staples sector. It is very well run and can be viewed as a baby boomer retirement beneficiary as they are the largest single food and equipment supplier to the restaurant industry. The chances are pretty good that your favorite restaurant has an account with SYY.

What Bernanke's Comments All Mean

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:26:11 -0500

Correct me if I am wrong but the US dollar's reserve currency status is not determined by US law. It is a function of foreign central banks independent decisions of which currency they prefer their reserves to be invested in. IMO the US Federal Reserve has no 'responsibilities' per se to foreign investors who choose to invest in the US currency. They are free to sell and take their reserves elsewhere anytime they wish. One may argue that some are doing just that but not in sufficient numbers to affect the dollar's reserve currency status.

On Nov 17 11:12 AM User 143167 wrote:

> You have to take the due responsibilites if your currency is a reserve
> currency. Otherwise, bring the gold standard back and stop selling
> treasury bills. Reserve currency is not only a previlige, but also
> a responsibility attached to it.

Is This the Beginning of a New Secular Bull Market?

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:03:34 -0500

Regardless, he has been pretty accurate recently IMO.

On Nov 17 08:24 AM MarketGuy wrote:

> Again, using one tree to define the forest. Oh..and the forest?...it's
> on fire.
>
> Highest national debt, ever.
> Highest "true" unemployment in decades (no, not "lagging")
> Credit defaults rising
> Housing not recovering/Foreclosures up
> GDP is defined as "Government Driven Pump", so is NOT GDP
> Highest states bankruptcy since the 1930's
> uh, China? hello?
> Banks failing at an exponential rate
> market liquidity highly driven by Goldman and the like
>
>
> Saut can save the unilateral and narrow data field pump talk for
> his multiple CNBC appearances.

China's Monetary Policy and the Japan Trap

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:46:03 -0500

If you are right it will be very easy for you to get rich. They will sell you all the S&P puts you care to buy. Have at it.

On Nov 16 02:16 PM SP1100 wrote:

> Over 120 banks went bust since 2008 and this is only 8% of all what's
> to come. 99% of this banks went bust on Saturdays and Sundays ( look
> at the dates here: www.fdic.gov/bank/indi...
> ) when markets were closed, because FDIC don't want you to know about
> it's biggest secret: your bank will be next to go bust.
> The problem is that most US banks are dead and FDIC tries to close
> the smallest banks first, leaving big crème de la crème for the desert.
>
> The more banks will go bust the less your deposits will be insured,
> that's why check our RUN ON A BANK list if your bank is there.
shorl.com/frofrujostet...
>
>
> S&P at 1100 is the thing of the moment, biggest runs on a bank
> is more than real.

Disney's China Move: A Big Growth Opportunity for Mickey

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:30:41 -0500

I'm not so sure they will make 'nothing' on their licensing rights. Qualcomm collects royalties on its intellectual property from China as do many other companies. This is a long term story suited for longer term investors. I own a few shares of DIS and found the article interesting.

On Nov 05 09:16 PM Alan Young wrote:

> Okay, it's good for Disney to get a foot in China. But I think you
> are exaggerating the importance of it.
>
> Disney World 1971 vs. today? That's absurd. You can't compare anything
> going on now, in China or anywhere else, to the past 38 years. I
> don't know anyone interested in 38-year-long investment plans. And
> anyway the value of the franchise is much more weighted to intellectual
> property than to theme-park traffic.
>
> But you already alluded to the fact that the Chinese will produce
> Disney-themed products without licenses. This is a certainty, because
> it doesn't even require criminal intent. Mickey Mouse was created
> in the 1930s, and there's no reason China should accede to the US
> rule that the copyright should apply everywhere forever. So to compute
> the value of the Chinese market to Disney, you'd have to separate
> the licensing deals (on which they will make nothing) from the cash
> spending at the theme park (which will make something). Show me the
> money, and then we'll talk about the value of the deal.

SYSCO Corporation: Dividend Stock Analysis

Sun, 11 Oct 2009 11:37:56 -0400

The lack of price performance is indeed frustrating and I suspect many investors have understandably reached the same conclusion as you. I believe that much of this is the result of anything consumer related being scorned by the vast majority of analysts and pundits. Its been pretty conventional wisdom for awhile now. Sometime within the next few quarters unemployment will start falling and consumers will start feeling better. One of the first things people do when they regain their financial confidence is go out to eat. It is a small ticket luxury virtually anyone can enjoy. I'm not suggesting you will get rich owning this and there are a lot of good investment opportunities out there but frankly there does not appear to me to be much downside risk in SYY at ~$25. In the heat of the recent panic it barely dipped below 20 and the market is up a lot more than SYY. The consumer will be back, the question is when - and SYY pays you a nice dividend that will likely grow while you wait for him.

On Oct 09 03:05 PM cosimdm wrote:

> I have owned Sysco in the past and have seen it's price go nowhere.
> I like the didvidend, but I would like to see a litttle price action
> after 10 years. I sold it.

Russia Makes the First Call for the Monetization of Gold

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 15:31:04 -0400

Funny. Thats how I think about them.

On Jun 17 01:34 PM User 357705 wrote:

> Whatever they decide to do USA can only bellow, stomp its feet and
> throw itself on the floor!

Sysco: Where to Find Value and Growth Potential

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 15:13:17 -0400

You just don't go back far enough. 'Never' is a long time. From 1995 until early 2004 the stock was a five bagger. In 2000 the share price was comparable to what it is today. Then the company earned $.68 per share and paid a dividend of $.23 per share. Today the comapny is expected to earn $1.77 per share (in a VERY depressed year) and will pay at least $.96 a share in dividends. I expect this year (ends June 30) will be the trough year. Next year could see EPS at $1.85 or higher and the dividend near $1.00 per share. For me it is a bit hard to swallow a bearish view at these prices unless there is a continued economic contraction.

Part of the reason for the recent poor price behavior is that the entire investment world believes the consumer is dead and isn't coming back. Its soup and beans at home from now on. If this is in fact how it plays out then perhaps SYY stays flat. I think human nature and old habits are hard to break. Dining out is a small ticket luxury and when the consumer starts feeling better he will return to his favorite restaurants and enjoy an evening with friends and/or family. When he does SYY will see their volumes soar and their EPS right along with it. When SYY decisivly breaks through $24 (it may be several more weeks) it should run quickly to $30. Like the author, I am an amatuer so talk with your financial advisor. IMO, SYY will be a five bagger again.

On Jun 17 09:47 AM mdpath wrote:

> Good company but its never been a good stock.

Sysco: Where to Find Value and Growth Potential

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:07:39 -0400

You can go to the company's website www.sysco.com/ and get the audio of a recent presentation to a Sanford-Bernstein investment conference. Bottom line is things are tough out there but have stopped going down. The economy should begin to recover in the second half of the year. SYY's fiscal year ends in June so perhaps next year brings positive earnings comparisons.

One other thing: SYY has made an aquisition in Ireland, their first overseas. It won't move the needle but they made it on their terms and the Pallas Foods group is a leading foodservice providor. The acquired company should benefit from SYY's enormous food sourcing network.

The stock has bumped its head recently around $24. Should it decisivly break this level it should move quickly to the $30 area. Get a position during this market pullback. Get it before June 30 and collect the next generous quarterly dividend, their 158th consecutive.

Here Comes Dow at 9,600, S&P 500 at 1,042

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 21:28:40 -0400

Folks this is the guy who sold Freeport McMoran at $17 right after the dividend cut.

Why the U.S. Recovery Will Lag

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 21:08:13 -0400

I am not privy to Mr Krugman's personal investment successes and/or failures but I would suspect that tenured professors are rarely the ones to seek out for ideas on outsized investment returns. I am sure Mr Krugman is extremely intelligent but I would trust Cramer more for investment ideas.

On Jun 05 02:27 PM Fighting Yoda wrote:

> Paul Krugman (on Bloomberg):
> “We have made the transition from sheer panic to chronic anxiety,”
> Krugman said, adding he’s has a “hard time” seeing what might drive
> a “full” economic recovery. “The euro zone, like the United States,
> I fear, could be facing kind of a lost decade,”

Another Sign of Recovery: SPY Breaks 200 Day MA

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 16:48:13 -0400

I take it you are still in cash.

On Jun 01 03:10 PM jeandit75 wrote:

> bull $hit

Gas Prices Not Expected to Come Down Before Year's End

Thu, 28 May 2009 17:15:51 -0400

with inventories here at decade highs I fail to see how a temporary 100M bpd production interruption spikes prices. Also, how many barrels a day has NOT been shipped because Kim Jong is feeling neglected and needs some attention? All this stuff does is spook traders to buy (or sell) for short term moves. What long traders need to beware of is a ticked off gasoline consumer who learned how to get by with less gasoline during the last price spike and is perfectly capable of repeating the exercise.

Oil: Reduced Drilling Activity May Explain Recent Price Increase

Mon, 11 May 2009 16:19:01 -0400

Another factor might be substantial production cutbacks by OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia. Also, liquidity availability in global financial markets could contribute.

Sysco: My Favorite Stock

Tue, 05 May 2009 17:33:57 -0400

SYY has not 'run-up'. That is one of the points the author makes. It is selling at the lowest PE in decades, and no one is interested (or excited). If you want an indication of how SYY copes with higher fuel prices look at the past year. Diesel fuel more than doubled, then fell by 50%. The company has already faced this potential problem. People will not stop eating meals away from home. They will trade down the menu, perhaps go out less frequently, but they won't stop altogether. The slowdown is already priced in. A recovering economy and a more confident consumer is not. The stock will be well over 30 in a year and over 40 in two.

On May 05 02:18 PM nyoneway wrote:

> With some many beaten down stocks even after the recent run-up, I
> fail to see how a 12:1 forward PE seems that exciting. Inflation
> does not neccessarily translate to higher profits because consumers
> will adjust their spending by buying less and focus on lower cost
> items.
>
> Another factor is that fuel prices now are relatively low compare
> to the Summer of 2008, it'll be interesting to see how Sysco cope
> with the inevitable rise in fuel prices.

Sysco: Reasonable Price for a Dominant Company

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 21:56:39 -0400

And they will eat cold soup at home only so long. Friends and family becon at yon restaurant and we will go.

On Mar 25 08:52 PM REBEL wrote:

> Hey Chris B - Yes, the world economy could implode and make all stocks
> worthless. But people will eat 'til the end of time.

Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster'

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:33:02 -0400

Good old Marc. Buy but just remember its all going to hell later. You need me to tell you when. Just subscribe to my newsletter.

Bank Stocks Will Return to Prior Norms

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 15:08:10 -0400

Its still not too late sonny.

On Mar 24 11:06 AM Alex Filonov wrote:

> Jason, I have to congratulate you on BAC position. I was wrong and
> you were right. It's no small deal to get a double in less than a
> month.

Sysco: Reasonable Price for a Dominant Company

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 14:59:52 -0400

Discounts depend on volume. Greater volume to a restaurant reduces per unit supply costs. Its really a logistics game with several moving parts. According to a friend who works at one of Sysco's supply warehouses business is pretty flat but he also says restaurant traffic picks up almost immediately when the economy improves. Some call this an 'early cycle' business because it is so sensitive to economic changes.

Sysco is a good business for long term conservative equity investors. Volatility is lower than the market, it pays a consistent and growing dividend, earns a high return on equity capital (routinely around 30% according to Value Line), and dominates the markets it serves. The next time you eat at your favorite restaurant look around for what I call 'Sysco signs'. It may be a private lable box in or near the kitchen, the name on the individual sweetner packets on the table or the coffee supplies near the coffee maker. If it is an individually owned restaurant chances are they are supplied by Sysco.

Incidently Barrons Online (subscriber site) has a good writeup today that compliments the above article. One other thing pointed out in that article is Sysco's large business with schools, hospitals, military installations, nursing homes and cruise ship lines.

Buffett Closes Derivatives Contracts, Goes Back to Writing Insurance

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 20:36:50 -0500

Its a good time to beat up on a buy-and-hold investor by traders. Rare opportunity in fact. Kass is a smart guy who knows a good thing when he sees it.

Interestingly Kass (a notorious short seller who obviously has done well) is now quite bullish. And not for a trade.

Selling Sysco

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 20:27:45 -0500

Sysco is a consistent performer in a chaotic market. The return on equity is routinely in the 30% range with a growing dividend. The company has a simple business plan that is executed relentlessly by a management that are themselves heavily invested in the business and is of high character (not something to scoff at in this world of Enron, Worldcom, Citigroup, etc.). Sysco has been the victim of a steady PE erosion over the last several years despite a rising earnings and dividend stream. I do not believe this is a company specific phenomenon. Wal Mart, Pepsi, and many others have suffered similar or worse fates.

It appears the author is a trader rather than an investor, as so many are these days. Nothing wrong with that. However as someone above has said, for a trader there is not a lot here to get excited about. Low beta, boring business, steady price decline, etc. For an investor however there are a few things to like. Low beta, boring business, increasing valuation (lower prices and higher earnings and dividends), trustable management, consistent dependable revenue streams not generated by 20 to 1 leverage. One other thing. Sysco flys below most radar screens and is rarely mentioned in the financial media. A very good thing these days.

Disclosure: Long Sysco for many years.

Not Everyone Is Afraid

Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:27:33 -0500

nevertheless they are there.

On Mar 01 09:44 PM bigmoney wrote:

> >> Red Lobster jammed full ALL DAY today with obese people waiting
> for overpriced undersized portions. Just a last hurrah before their
> credit cards get shut off?
>
> I seem to recall that Red Lobster offers all you can eat (greasy)
> cheese bread. A large person could easily put away 3000 calories
> of cheese bread alone. The undersized lobster tail is just cover.
>

Buffett Takes Advantage of the Wall Street Addicts

Thu, 26 Feb 2009 11:40:20 -0500

Bravo. Jason is wise beyond his years.

Nobel Laureate Penzias: U.S. Needs a $1 a Gallon Gas Tax

Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:28:31 -0500

I see the logic for a gas tax but not now. This economy needs lower energy prices to cushion the economic decline. The public is getting some real relief at the gas pump and that relief is mostly being spent. Restaurants are still busy and Wal Mart and other discount stores are doing brisk business. People have money left over for small convenience store purchases. Hike gas a dollar a gallon and a lot of that will disappear.

5 Indicators the Economy Is Recovering

Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:22:02 -0500

You are correct but these forums are full of them. It is just a reflection of what the media and markets are feeding everyone.

On Feb 25 10:00 AM Abraxas wrote:

> This is not the forum for these types of comments!

Reports of Economy's Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated

Wed, 25 Feb 2009 09:23:34 -0500

The charts reflect current conditions which are seen from many points of view. Sometimes it helps to see facts instead of subjective fear/gloom people are subjected to in the media.

As for Kudlow, I would suggest the time to be wary of him was six months ago when he was popular. Since the gloom is so widespread it might be more opportunistic to lean the other way now.

America has suffered from high unemployment, high debt, and inflation before and emerged prosperous. IMO we will deal with these problems successfully again if and when they arise. This is not a popular opinion right now as most people expect America's standing in the world to collapse. They will be proven wrong. America's institutions and dynamic, resilient economy will again be the global economic engine it has been in the past. Our markets and economy will recover, possibly sooner than most expect.

On Feb 25 07:06 AM atlasman wrote:

> Sounds like you are channeling Kudlow. The problem is all of these
> indicators are backward looking and do not mix in future unemployment,
> inflation, and massive public debt.

Tar Sands: How Much Is Out There and Can Nuclear Help?

Sun, 22 Feb 2009 13:23:32 -0500

According to Stratfor Canada is interested in applying our 'clean coal' technology to the tar sands development. This will require some coordination between the two countries regarding international carbon emission regulations(Kyoto accords) but it appears this was on the agenda at the recent meetings between President Obama and Prime Minister Harper. With Chavez of Venezuala looking more like a new version of Fidel Castro, and Mexico's declining production profile, Canada's tar sands look like the logical replacement for unreliable energy from South America.

Did Geithner Undersell His Plan?

Sun, 22 Feb 2009 13:07:20 -0500

I agree Geithner did a wretched job selling his plan. It also appears this administration cares not a whit about where bank stocks trade. Bank owners are not their constituents. Otherwise they would have been far more sensitive to the nationalization rumors. Regardless, they have this congressional term to get the economy moving ahead solidly before they again face the voters. I continue to believe they will do whatever it takes to do so.

Abercrombie's 2009 Strategy Yields Favorable Results

Sun, 22 Feb 2009 12:18:56 -0500

So does virtually everyone. You are solidly within the consensus, and you could be correct. However outsized returns are obtained by recognizing where the consensus could be mistaken and positioning accordingly. The author is suggesting this stock could be such a situation. Time will tell.

On Feb 17 02:04 PM Joe Friday wrote:

> I think that one should be careful in giving Abercrombie too much
> credit.
> Their strategy of holding pricing has resulted in significant same
> store sales declines last quarter (25%).
> Even more ominous is their inventory build. In the fourth quarter
> last year they did 1.228M in sales and ended the quarter with 333M
> in inventory (24 days of sales).
> In the fourth quarter just ended they did 997M in sales and ended
> the q with 373M in inventory (34 days).
> As their CEO likes to portray them, they are an "aspirational" brand.
> I would avoid any company with that approach in this market environment.

Cheesecake Factory: Why Piper Jaffray's Downgrade Was Baseless

Sun, 22 Feb 2009 11:48:33 -0500

Wachovia securities research has some proprietary data that measures the average minutes wait for a table on friday night, the peak night for casual dining. CAKE is one of several restaurant chains measured and the data shows a slight increase in the minutes wait this year vs last year. While this does not indicate how earnings will play out it, it is a large enough sampling to indicate demand is still fairly robust. While things can still get worse, the share price appears to have already discounted a lot. Allowance for even a mild recovery out a few months looks nonexistent.

No position in CAKE, long SYY (foodservice wholesaler)