jepittman

Barron's Takes Down Cramer, Again

One more comment on Cramer. He has guts and is not afraid to state his opinion. He has a charitable trust which he manages and it is interesting to see what he DOES rather than what he SAYS. When he comments on a stock that is in his trust account he discloses it. He is a showman but he educates a lot of people about markets and thus performs a great public service IMO. On balance the guy is OK. Nobody is clairvoyant.

Barron's Takes Down Cramer, Again

Cramer is in the business of attracting people to his internet site The street.com and from there to his many premium investment sites. He does this by being on CNBC and other media outlets and thus drives traffic to his domain. There is nothing wrong with this. It is how business is done. Criticism of his picks in Barrons and anywhere else for that matter brings him more attention and thus more traffic to his site. He probably loves it.

My dad always told me, 'son, follow the money'.

Feds Should Leave Wells Fargo Well Alone

Wells Fargo is a well run bank and deserves to reward their sales personnel as they see fit. Those critical of the trip do not understand the facts.

In a full-page NY Times ad, Wells Fargo (WFC) President John Stumpf slams "media stories" for creating the mistaken impression that every employee recognition event is a "junket, a boondoggle, a waste, or that it's for highly paid executives. Nonsense!"

They DO 'get it' HH. The people in question are sales oriented employees and DIRECTLY contribute to the bottom line. They sell the products the bank NEEDS sold and are compensated DIRECTLY on the sales they make. They should be and ARE rewarded for their contributions they make to the bank's bottom line. If these were executives on salary taking a junket I would understand the outrage. But the employees in question are commissioned salespeople who are compensated directly on their productivity. So try to get a grip and figure out the facts before you slam something you don't understand.


On Feb 08 07:15 PM Herbert Hoover wrote:

> Thye just don't get it, do they?

Switzerland's Dollar Denominated Debt and the Fed's Shrinking Balance Sheets

The Swiss are selling very short term debt. I doubt they are playing a long trend. As the author says it has more to do with current dollar needs.


On Feb 08 10:56 AM secmaven wrote:

> The Swiss are smart. Sell dollar debt today, wait for inflation to
> destroy the value of the dollar and pay back the debt with cheaper
> dollars.

Commodities May Be Turning the Recovery Curve

The Chinese are astute traders. They are buying straw hats in winter at bargain prices. They know their economy will recover and they are stockpiling cheap commodities. We may be seeing China becoming a global growth engine for the first time.

Global Markets in Review: Stocks Higher on a Stimulus and a Prayer

Bullish equity markets have always preceded an economic recovery, just as bearish markets precede recessions. Its just that they sometimes give false readings during the earliest stages of an advance (or decline). The market will herald the return of economic growth when it decisivly moves to the upside. IMO it is still a little early to write the obituary to the bear. But his days are numbered.


On Feb 08 07:59 AM constructe wrote:

> It's nice to see some short term bulissness even though long term
> everything remains bearish.
>
> The important fact is the bulishness is market bullisness not economic
> (no real fundamentals to back it with). And the other bulishness,
> as morph points out, is an even more worrisome bulishness: Bullishness
> on commondities and staples which correctly points to an unsustainable
> low treasury yield and possible inflation during a very bad recession
> later.

Switzerland's Dollar Denominated Debt and the Fed's Shrinking Balance Sheets

So I gather from this that the US dollar is topping out, at least short term, vs the British pound and the euro. Seems to me this would be bullish for commodities, particularly gold, and US common stocks in general. Bearish for US treasury bonds. Just my take.

Big Oil: Dark Skies Ahead?

Much of this decline in cash flows is already priced in the stocks. Capital spending appears to be the victim of the lower prices, not the dividends. With the majors there is plenty of cash to cover them for quite a while.

Good News Points to Recession's End by July

Boy is it ever. If you look at the five most popular topics on SA they discuss the complete collapse of civilization as we know it in one form or another. Authors attempting to point out anything positive are either ignored or ridiculed to the point of rudeness (well not quite but sometimes it seems that way).

I have found over the years that John K. Galbraith's quote that 'in matters of economics the majority is always wrong' has been reasonably accurate. On SA the VAST majority seem to be very fearful and pessimistic. Time will tell.


On Feb 05 05:35 PM sittingoutthisrecessio... wrote:

>
> The "context" you seek is all over SA.
>
> On Feb 05 02:04 PM disaster2008 wrote:

The Obama Stimulus Plan: Just Say No

I think you will find that tax cuts will be part of the package. While they may not target the socioeconomic groups you prefer they will be stimulative to the economy. As for 'pork', there certainly will be some but again, the goal is to stimulate demand for goods and services. No one is going to get everything they want but at the end of the day if the package addresses the bad assets held by the banks and stops the price declines in housing then more normal lending can resume with less fear of more writedowns. The credit markets must return to normalcy or there will be a much longer and deeper recession. Fortunately this appears to be occuring (see LIBOR, bond spreads, etc.). The stimulus package will hasten the recovery, possibly at the expense of higher inflation. But that is down the road and a worry for another day.


On Feb 07 11:31 AM cfal wrote:

> The "stimulus" is not a stimulus plan but a big pork program advancing
> socialism. To stimulate the economy we need tax cuts, not rebates,
> and spending that is not built into baseline budget. For long term
> growth the government needs to be reduced not expanded.

Restaurant Traffic, Then and Now

Wachovia Securities does a survey every friday night that measures the number of minutes customers wait for a table at several national restaurants like Olive Garden, Cheesecake Factory, Applebee's, Texas Roadhouse, Ruby Tuesday's, etc. Through last friday the wait was down slightly from one year ago but not significantly so. From the economic headlines one would surmise everyone is huddled in their dark cold homes eating beans and soup. People are going to eat out. Restaurant traffic is an early cycle indicator. As soon as economic confidence rises one of the first things people do to feel good is go out to eat.

You have suggested that meals away from home are at risk. I beg to differ. People will trade down the menu, make small sacrifices on eating out if things are really tight, but as soon as things get better they will be back at their favorite restaurants enjoying a meal with friends. I do not believe these habits will change.

Petrobras: Opportunity or Trap?

Those interested in investing in Brazil should read an October article by Horatio Marquez concerning the ETF 'EWZ'. A large holding within this ETF is Petrobras so I think his theme is appropriate.

Late Payments on Credit Cards Reach Record Levels

I apologize, I posted the above comment on the wrong thread. Again, my apologies.

Late Payments on Credit Cards Reach Record Levels

In October Horacio Marquez wrote a long piece here on SA concerning Brazil and its future. The investment he was recommending was the Brazilian ETF symbol 'EWZ'. A significant holding within this ETF is Petrobras, so I think the theme in his article would apply strongly to Petrobras. I would suggest anyone interested in investing in Brazil to read Mr. Marquez's October piece.