jepittman

Bank Stocks Will Return to Prior Norms

Its still not too late sonny.


On Mar 24 11:06 AM Alex Filonov wrote:

> Jason, I have to congratulate you on BAC position. I was wrong and
> you were right. It's no small deal to get a double in less than a
> month.

U.S. Rejects Nationalization of Citi and BAC

This administration has a viable plan for dealing with this crisis. It has done an absolutely wretched job of selling it. There is a plan to get the 'bad assets' off the banks balance sheets. There is a plan to recapitalize the deserving banks with cash. There is a plan to restart securitization of commercial loans, residential mortgage loans, student loans, credit card consumer loans, with the federal reserve as the purchaser until private markets stabilize. These plans were vaguely outlined and then the spokesmen disappeared with no Q&A, no followup with details, and virtual silence while rumors of bank nationalization ran wild. Obama is a thoughtful and talented man but it appeares like he has no clue about how markets work, and the advice he is getting about communication with them leaves a lot to be desired.

JPMorgan Chase: Poisoned by Bear's 5,000 Counterparties

The Fed has no reasonable alternative. It MUST defend the banking system above all else. Failed banks and a 1930s style deflation is not an option. Monetary policy is a very blunt instrument. They are in the business of making sure the credit markets and thus the entire economy, functions. They will defend the banking system above all else. It is NOT their job to hand down moral judgements on the 'correct' amount of debt, if any, an individual or organization should hold. The banks are going to be provided with however much money is necessary to unfreeze the credit markets and recapitalize their balance sheets. By short selling the banks at these levels one is fighting the Federal Reserve which has been known to be hazardous to one's wealth.


On Dec 16 08:37 PM curbs-in wrote:

> >Rakesh you had best cover your shorts. The economy is being drenched
> >in high octane gasoline.
>
> jepittman:
>
> Yep! And it's about to blow-up in the face of the Fed, Treasury,
> Congress and President 1/2.
>
> I really admire the way the Fed encorages personal finacial responsibility
> and saving...
>
> Just kidding...

JPMorgan Chase: Poisoned by Bear's 5,000 Counterparties

Rakesh you had best cover your shorts. The economy is being drenched in high octane gasoline.

JPMorgan Chase: Poisoned by Bear's 5,000 Counterparties

One compelling indicator that the financials are working on a bottom is the near universal agreement with this story. Now no one KNOWS where the bottom is - it will be known only in hindsight. But we can know that at bottoms - wherever that is - bearishness is nearly universal.

Incidently it would be nice if Rakesh would tell us when he covers his shorts in C,GS, and JPM. Don't hold your breath.

JPMorgan Chase: Poisoned by Bear's 5,000 Counterparties

With the Federal Reserve implying a nearly limitless money supply increase to defend the banking system I would suggest your short positions are rather tenuous. JPM and the other money center banks will get all the money they need to survive this crisis. The BS derivitives will be successfully unwound over time and will likely pose little threat to JPM.

Seriously, I wish you luck with your trades.

JPMorgan Chase: Poisoned by Bear's 5,000 Counterparties

'Exposure" does not necessarily mean 'toxic'. Your implication that every derivitive is worthless is absurd. JPM is regulated by several agencies and is constantly audited. Now this does not mean it is a good investment but it does mean the regulatory agencies and auditors probably know far more about JPM's obligations than you or me.


On Dec 14 07:23 AM 1 world currency wrote:

> According to Treasury Department statistics, JPM has a $90,000,000,000,000
> (trillion) gross notional exposure to derivatives. One analyst said
> assuming no unusual circumstances, their net exposure is only several
> hundred billion.
>
> We are experiences unusual circumstances, and this issue can not
> be ignored. We need immediate transparency regarding all this toxic
> paper.

Alarming Household Wealth Erosion: Short Today and Shop Away

Not an optimistic note to be heard. Nothing but doom and despair. Music to a bull's ears.

A Restoration of Confidence in the Markets Means Everything

Jason has a good point with his 'confidence' theme. It is an emotion whose power can be observed in many venues outside of the economy. It is a huge factor in all sports competition where it is sometimes referred to as 'momentum'. With confidence the collective human mind can overcome any obstacle and solve any problem. Without it nothing positive can happen. I fully expect a sea change in confidence as we approach the inauguration of a new President.

With Numbers Like These, Is Bullishness Possible?

OK here's one for you: The stock market is forming an intermediate term bottom. The Oct low on the S&P 500 of 830.80 will hold and there will be a tradable rally into January beginning sometime this month. Specific enough?

PS: no one pays me so its OK if I'm wrong
PPS: no one pays me if I'm right either


On Nov 11 01:51 PM 300mph wrote:

> Be bold, make a call.