jepittman

The Sad Semi Stocks: J.P. Morgan Sees a Bottom

You pose a very good question which is essentially when will investors 'look over the valley' and begin buying the semiconductor stocks. I will take a stab at this and say some already have. However they are not yet in numbers large enough to sustain a trend. I have found in the past that most institutional investors need to see convincing evidence that the recession has stopped getting worse before they begin to committ the large sums necessary to sustain an uptrend. In other words the worst case for the industry has to be quantified to a preset probability (which can vary from firm to firm). It usually is not a 'gut call' but something that can be explained using statistical models.

I believe the investors who have moved the prices off the lows have been primarily the 'value' investors who buy based on their perception of intrinsic worth. These people usually are fairly long term oriented and have amazing amounts of patience and ability to endure financial pain because they are often early ( I have had some experience with this particular style, much to my chagrin).

The above is hardly gospel but I offer it FWIW.

Our Biggest Infrastructure Need? Think Broadband

All due respect to Fitzman - points are well made. However IMO far too much energy is consumed by commuting. Ubiquitous broadband reduces the need to travel and thus reduces energy demand. All you say is necessary too. Lets just add broadband infrastructure buildout to the list and not argue about which should have priority. We can do it all.

Qualcomm and Broadcom Maintain Growth Despite Industry-wide Slowdown

I would suggest that if these companies can go through this recession and still grow their earnings their PE multiples coming out should dramatically increase. Clearly these are two to watch.

PS I am a long term holder of Qualcomm