jepittman

Three Investment Themes: Retail, Energy and Materials

I submit that neither you nor anyone else will know the 'inflection point' until it is well past. It is hubris to suggest you can know in advance. If you really believe an 'inflection point' will occur you should be slowly dollar cost averaging into the market as soon as you believe we are near the lows, not waiting for solid evidence that the lows are in. Once you know the lows are in so will everyone else and the market will be much higher.

Value Portfolio Produces a Horrendous Report Card

Valuing a company's earnings as a multiple of trough earnings is IMO a mistake. Ownership of a company is ownership of a stream of earnings far into the future. Those earnings, however vague, should be considered when valuing a stock. Recoveries follow recessions and bull markets follow bear markets. Those who ignore this and only consider what a company is earning today are offering others bargains. The lower the price goes the higher the longer term opportunities are. We are IMO in one of those rare times when tremendous long term opportunity exists. The old saying 'fortune favors the bold' applies.