jepittman

Is This the Beginning of a New Secular Bull Market?

Regardless, he has been pretty accurate recently IMO.


On Nov 17 08:24 AM MarketGuy wrote:

> Again, using one tree to define the forest. Oh..and the forest?...it's
> on fire.
>
> Highest national debt, ever.
> Highest "true" unemployment in decades (no, not "lagging")
> Credit defaults rising
> Housing not recovering/Foreclosures up
> GDP is defined as "Government Driven Pump", so is NOT GDP
> Highest states bankruptcy since the 1930's
> uh, China? hello?
> Banks failing at an exponential rate
> market liquidity highly driven by Goldman and the like
>
>
> Saut can save the unilateral and narrow data field pump talk for
> his multiple CNBC appearances.

Why the U.S. Recovery Will Lag

I am not privy to Mr Krugman's personal investment successes and/or failures but I would suspect that tenured professors are rarely the ones to seek out for ideas on outsized investment returns. I am sure Mr Krugman is extremely intelligent but I would trust Cramer more for investment ideas.


On Jun 05 02:27 PM Fighting Yoda wrote:

> Paul Krugman (on Bloomberg):
> “We have made the transition from sheer panic to chronic anxiety,”
> Krugman said, adding he’s has a “hard time” seeing what might drive
> a “full” economic recovery. “The euro zone, like the United States,
> I fear, could be facing kind of a lost decade,”

Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster'

Good old Marc. Buy but just remember its all going to hell later. You need me to tell you when. Just subscribe to my newsletter.

U.S. Rejects Nationalization of Citi and BAC

This administration has a viable plan for dealing with this crisis. It has done an absolutely wretched job of selling it. There is a plan to get the 'bad assets' off the banks balance sheets. There is a plan to recapitalize the deserving banks with cash. There is a plan to restart securitization of commercial loans, residential mortgage loans, student loans, credit card consumer loans, with the federal reserve as the purchaser until private markets stabilize. These plans were vaguely outlined and then the spokesmen disappeared with no Q&A, no followup with details, and virtual silence while rumors of bank nationalization ran wild. Obama is a thoughtful and talented man but it appeares like he has no clue about how markets work, and the advice he is getting about communication with them leaves a lot to be desired.

Global Markets in Review: Stocks Higher on a Stimulus and a Prayer

Bullish equity markets have always preceded an economic recovery, just as bearish markets precede recessions. Its just that they sometimes give false readings during the earliest stages of an advance (or decline). The market will herald the return of economic growth when it decisivly moves to the upside. IMO it is still a little early to write the obituary to the bear. But his days are numbered.


On Feb 08 07:59 AM constructe wrote:

> It's nice to see some short term bulissness even though long term
> everything remains bearish.
>
> The important fact is the bulishness is market bullisness not economic
> (no real fundamentals to back it with). And the other bulishness,
> as morph points out, is an even more worrisome bulishness: Bullishness
> on commondities and staples which correctly points to an unsustainable
> low treasury yield and possible inflation during a very bad recession
> later.

Cramer's Mad Money - Building Long-Term Wealth (1/19/09)

Where might that be bobbobwhite?


On Jan 20 02:04 PM bobbobwhite wrote:

> Perhaps this time all the past rules are not going to work, including
> Cramer's. Most savvy investors know that the chickens come home to
> roost after a time in any manipulated market, so this just may THE
> time for us to finally realize that those feathered enemies are perching
> on our investments and doing what they do best.
>
> Move your money to where they cannot do that any more than they already
> have.

524,000 Jobs Lost in December; The Economy Is in a Depression

I suppose I am one of those Mr. Loundsbury (whom I have immense respect for) says holds a 'diametrically opposed opinion'. I won't argue semantics with Mr. Morici but will offer a point of agreement with him. "Its either recovery or depression" is where we are in agreement. I fall on the 'recovery' side of the question. I will not deny longer term troubles. There are a host of them. Many of you have done a fine job of laying them out, and they are valid concerns. However we all have to live week to week, quarter to quarter. Some of these problems may take years to truly manifest themselves. In the meantime markets trade and opportunities present themselves. Windows open and close. Presently Mr. Market is IMO offering assets cheaper than he has in some time. If you believe as I do a recovery is in the cards, there is one type of opportunity. If you believe it is depression there is another. We all do the best we can. Good luck to all. We're all going to need it.

Sentiment Overview: Lopsided Demand for Call Options

You must not be reading the comments on SA.

The Secular Bear Market Continues

I agree. The chart implies that gold vs stocks is overvalued.


On Jan 06 07:30 PM Paul Price wrote:

> Based on your information I would be shorting gold and buying stocks.

Reports of Equities' Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

The endorsement of treasuries for me is the 'tell' for where the Times writer's mind is. If there is a blatent short in the financial markets its the 30 yr treasury.

Thanks for the article.

A Bull Is Born, 2009

Have at it HH. Be sure to let us know when you make your move.


On Jan 04 09:49 AM Herbert Hoover wrote:

> Everyone's a bull today. Buy - Buy - Buy!!!!!!!!!!
>
> Looks like a good time to stock up on puts.

1974 and 2008: Charts That Lie?

Another thing to point out is, in the 1975 example what percentage of the annual return occured during the first two months? One can judge for oneself but it appears to me a significant portion of the year's gain occured very early in the year.

What was Buffett Doing in 1974? How About in 2008?

As Paul Price says above, you will not know the bottom when you are at it, only looking back. By historical standards stocks and most corporate bonds are cheap. No one will 'get the low'. Dollar cost averaging into assets riskier than treasuries is IMO a good strategy. Staying in cash and waiting for a lower low that may not come could leave you out of the market as money returns to stocks and corp. bonds.

First Call of a Double-Dip Recession: Setting Up a Market Bottom?

Mr Hui you first are going to have to get them to acknowledge we are recovering from the current GDP decline before they will consider the 'double dip' possibility. That may yet take awhile. However as you imply, they certainly will. As soon as market participants start to sniff out a recovery, the 'double dip' claims will be out loud and often. And as you suggest, by then the bottom will likely be in.

Looking at the Market Through Slightly Bullish Lenses

Jeff your style is not mine but you do have one thing right. IMO the easy trade is most often wrong. Some of the best buys (and sells) I have ever made I felt like I was going to throw up just after entering them. Some of the worst trades I ever made was when I was comfortable making them. This is not a law but it sure seems to be the way it works most of the time for me. Good luck.