perceptions_now

When Will the Recession End?

It may surprise, but I agree with some of your comments.

Food production has been more a matter of lack of political will, until now.

We may have to disagree on what will happen, as I see a number of factors coming together (including total population, Climate & Peak Oil) that will present great difficulties, going forward.

I also agree that there was a great increase in lifespan, due to advances in medical science.

It is also possible that the total population may continue to increase, for sometime yet, although the rate of increase has already slowed considerably.

And, from a certain perspective, there is a shortage of younger people.

In fact, that is where the immediate problems stem from.

The rate of population increase has slowed from the rates in the Boomer generation, which is affecting Demand & Supply, which in turn is affecting the mainstream economy & the financial markets.

In other words, the rate of Growth is slowing and is in the process of permanently reversing.

This is different to any previous Recession &/or Depression.

I would recommend a broader perspective, there are many interrelated issues in play.

PS - Sorry, I don't know Paul Ehrlich's work, so I can not comment.




On Nov 06 05:22 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> @perceptions_now: Out of a very lengthy, rambling comment containing
> much speculation not backed by facts, I need to pick on one lie in
> particular:
>
> "Now, at over 6 Billion people, we are starting to exhaust the earth’s
> capacity to support human species."
>
> Absolutely false. The reason so many are malnourished in the world
> has MUCH more to do with the political regime they "live" under,
> not the lack of capability to produce enough food. Most people are
> not aware that the main reason for the population boom in the last
> century is simply that lifespans saw a big increase due to unprecedented
> advances in medicine -- vaccines, antibiotics, organ transplants,
> etc. Things unheard of before the 20th century. We are not likely
> to continue increasing life expectancies by the margin that we did
> so in the last century. The UN predicts increases to continue through
> about 2040 (with the pace of increase slowing), and then begin a
> population decline. Not because of food shortages or the inability
> of the Earth to support more people...but because citizens of industrialized
> countries are having fewer children. They are in school longer and
> marry later, delaying the start of family life.
>
> If anything, we will find ourselves in a situation where we do not
> have ENOUGH people in younger generations. This is *already* the
> case in many European countries, which are giving tax credits...and
> even one-time lump sum payments to couples when they have a child!!
> We are currently in a situation in the U.S. where Social Security
> and Medicare are increasingly underfunded due to the swell of retirees
> (with the boomers just starting!) vs. the smaller base of workers
> paying in!!
>
> Paul Ehrlich and his radical anti-birth associates have long since
> been discredited. Move along.