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  • BlackBerry And Its Negative Altman Z-Score [View article]
    I'm intrigued by San Francisco as the choice for BBRY's enterprise release in November. Why SF? I'm not aware that BBRY has done events in SF, which is Apple (and Google's, Airwatch's, MobileIron, etc) backyard.

    Is it to show the tech world that BBRY is alive? Is it because of a possible collaboration with a Silicon Valley company?

    Z score perspective is interesting. Not sure it would take into account the fact that Passport just released, Classic to be released, "free" enterprise software until next year, etc. BBRY is acting more like a startup at this point as much as an entrenched player "on the decline" as bears would say.
    Oct 23 12:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Lenovo Group Making A Bid For BlackBerry? [View article]
    @kevinconway

    Totally understand. Please see my thoughts below below regarding sale to company with links to Chinese gov't.

    While we my decry role of NSA in our lives, the role of Chinese gov't in businesses in China must be at least as intrusive.

    If Canada allows sale of BBRY to Lenovo, perhaps the US gov't will also throw in an aircraft carrier to really make the the gift complete.

    If BBRY can find a nice licensing arrangement with Lenovo, eg wanting to use QNX, fine.

    As far as Lenovo "buying" BBRY, seems like that notion is driven more by those wanting to make $$ on puts in the near term after rise and fall of SP after "rumor" of takeover is debunked.
    Oct 21 04:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Lenovo Group Making A Bid For BlackBerry? [View article]
    @mapodga

    Shareholders do have a say, but there are clearly times the gov't will get involved at a very high level to protect national interests. One simple example is the ongoing tug of war between Boeing and Airbus. There are times the gov't intervenes when they deem "national" interests are at stake. Same is true of steel, etc.....

    I think if Canadian gov't were going to step in to save BBRY outright, would have done it last year. I can't recall where I read it, but the whole deal with Prem Watsa was very much on the Canadian gov't radar. If he hadn't stepped up, then we'd see how much they would have gotten involved.
    Oct 20 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Lenovo Group Making A Bid For BlackBerry? [View article]
    @domprime

    While I agree with others who state that BBRY is publicly traded and only shareholders can vote (ie not the Canadian gov't), I think the chances of BB10 OS or their encryption algorithms landing in the hands of company with Chinese ownership are below 0, somewhere near 0 degrees Kelvin. That's not to say it wouldn't be a good idea, as you suggest, just not too likely. I think BBRY will need to find another way to keep on moving.
    Oct 20 11:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Chen Is Happy You Can't Buy A BlackBerry Passport, Covets China [View article]
    its-on

    I don't know the Canadian market either, or even more generally, whether the phones in Canada are the exact same phones as in US, or for that matter India, Malaysia, etc.

    I also don't know whether futureshop is tied into any system that easily enables people to find these devices. For example, until @Guest-Eh brought up their name a short while ago, I'd never heard of them. I had heard and was aware of other wireless providers in Canada such as Rogers, etc.

    Still seems somewhat silly to quibble about a few phones here and there when ShopBlackberry and Amazon stock is out.

    Bigger question is whether BBRY retains significant share of enterprise market it held with upcoming BES 10/12 release. Only if/then will people finally stop saying BBRY is dead/going bankrupt, there will be perhaps greater awareness among consumers, and BBRY phones will sell in large numbers to enterprise and consumers. Most consumers today literally don't even think BBRY is still around, so some favorable publicity, look at BB10 OS, perhaps retirement of old RIM devices for Classic will help. BBRY has never done a sustained push marketing to consumers.

    Until then as far as Passport is concerned, will need to hear that there is another production run to determine whether the 200k even includes devices sold to AT&T for release in US later this year. At this point I look at my own experience and feedback that others are buying the device (and they no doubt are) as a sign of optimism, not victory.

    As AT&T user, they usually go through a delay testing devices and are often many months behind in software updates. That will bring some visibility, but as we know previously from AT&T it is often in the hidden corner of the store. When I activated my Passport at AT&T, several of the salespeople were very excited to see it and talked very fondly of prior BBRY and potential interest in something like the Classic because they missed the keyboard: the AT&T manager actually asked me if I was a BBRY rep, was irritated that his sales people wanted to see the Passport, and when they asked him to take a look he grunted, glanced, and moved on. Too much pressure to sell Apple and/or Samsung devices, no doubt, not a curious mind.

    One more thought, for all the searches I've done for BBRY Passport, "futureshop" never came up in any of the results. Maybe it is a household name in Canada, it certainly isn't well known in the US.
    Oct 20 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Chen Is Happy You Can't Buy A BlackBerry Passport, Covets China [View article]
    The sum of these comments over the last few days points in a fairly common direction.

    BBRY ordered 200K units for initial production run to avoid TH like fiasco of bloated inventory.

    None of us have any idea over what time frame the devices were produced, delivered, released and how allocation was divided. It is quite plausible that phones are being released to areas where demand is greatest (eg Amazon in US, Shop Blackberry, etc, ie places it will sell out once available). It is also quite plausible that BBRY did receive orders for the initial 200K and some of these are on dealers shelves. It does not take a rocket scientist to do a web search for futureshop.ca to see that the online store is sold out: at the same time there are 29 physical stores listed, 10 of which have no availability and 19 of which have availability at the moment of this writing.

    I would suspect that this gives those both long and short some common ground to work with. There is no doubt the phone is moving. There is little doubt that IF some of the phones sitting in some of the physical futureshop stores were available on amazon.us or other sites they'd be picked up. Take from that what you will. Because one store has two on a shelf is hardly representive of North America. The only thing it is reflective of is that those phones probably should have stayed in a warehouse for web sales or delivery to store.

    It would also seem likely that JC is doing pretty careful inventory checks and that it is more important to the company that x% of devices have sold through to end users before more are produced. If there were any metric one would want, that would be the one: an announcement that more Passports will be built. I'm not aware of hard data to that effect.

    As far as having a "Deep Throat" in the BBRY Investor Relations group, we'll see. I asked Amazon what type of inventory they were carrying and got the answer I would have expected, which was "we don't have access to that information". Poor "Connie".

    It's interesting to see people who felt BBRY wouldn't be in existence now (BBRY will be bankrupt in weeks! some said) are now arguing over how many phones were sold.

    It's also interesting to see the lack of discussion regarding the Classic, which is probably far more important in terms of device sales, though if my understanding is correct price and profit per device will be less than Passport.

    And of course, Passport and Classic sales are dwarfed by upcoming end of EZ-Pass program early next year and we will see how many have committed to BES 10/12 platform.

    In brief, it is clear BBRY has sold quite a few Passports at a time when most consumers think BBRY is bankrupt: advantage longs. It is also likely BBRY has not sold 1,000,000, which would be as unfortunate a conclusion as the Selfridge's incident in 2013 or TH stating that BBRY would sell 10's of million of Q10's: advantage shorts.

    We'll have to wait and see if JC announces that there will be another run, as opposed to distribution, of Passports (the likely explanation for the in stock/out of stock), as well as sales of Classics, and BES 10/12. I would also like to see incorporation of Movirtu tochnology sooner rather than later: the longer technology goes unused, the lower the value and greater the time for others to replicate. IOT, QNX don't appear to be factors now.

    The only real revelations over the last few days of posts are to disclose openly those who want BBRY to fail and/or hate anyone who says anything positive about BBRY while also revealing those who may have "irrational exuberance" for BBRY when hard data is lacking.

    I just returned from a biz meeting, had Z30, iPhone 5, and Passport. Love the Passport for any kind of email, surfing web, Amazon apps, and camera, speakerphone are truly great, while keyboard is frankly easier to use than Z30 or much more than iPhone. Z30 was easier to use as a hybrid phone/browser/apps (eg, SoundHound nails songs as easily as Shazam, Blackberry Travel does just fine c/w TripIt or Worldmate). iPhone still had broader selection of apps that I rely on, though gap has closed considerable with BB 10.3 OS on Passport (Fidelity app as a terrific example). And many websites that have specific "apps" missing on BB World (such as CNBC) do just fine, if not bettter, if one bookmarks actual website on Passport (such as SeekingAlpha) as Passport memorizes login: the new CNBC app is pretty mediocre IMHO, as is the SeekingAlpha app c/w directly using website on Passport.

    I also have a number of friends who have tried, and like BBM on iPhone, though it is still a PIA for iPhone users to get working. Besides the "mutual handshake", the iPhone user has to go into notifications, otherwise they won't see texts or VOIP attempts. Once they get the hang of it, they like it.

    Anyone who thinks this is a slam dunk one way or the other and/or keeps posting the same material hour after hour needs to get a life.

    Final thoughts: regarding BBRY and China, Chen was asked by Bloomberg directly a few months ago and while not excluding the possibility he pretty much indicated it was not a realistic consideration of sale to China, not only because of Canadian govt (which he alluded to) but also because Canada and US have certain agreements in place regarding sharing of sensitive intelligence and it would seem quite unlikely that the US would stand by and let BBRY be handed over to Lenovo or anyone else on the other side of the Pacific (or Atlantic for that matter). And on a personal level, have no plan to trade in my iPhone 5, but will be upgrading to iPad Air2. My opinions reflect what the devices have to offer. Like iPad Air2 will do for me, newer generation of BBRY devices have lots to offer. Sad that so many who trivialize the company and phones have no experience with the BB 10 OS devices.
    Oct 20 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Health Care Upside [View article]
    Partnership with NantHealth may pay big dividends down the road. As Sergei Brin said medicine is heavily regulated and there are very established players such as Epic. There are enormous financial burdens to install these systems, train staff, MDs, etc, let alone migrate health care, billing, appointment data. Many institutions already have integrated iPhones and iPads. I'm not saying these are the best products, nor am I saying Apple will have anything of value to offer regarding the IOT. Just don't expect things to change overnight. This would be a 5 to 15 year issue, would have been much better 5 to 10 years ago before hospitals started committing to current EMR players. The real short term opportunity is in emerging countries, not US.
    Oct 17 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Limited Availability For The BlackBerry Passport: Longs Should Rejoice [View article]
    Michael

    Agree that this is likely a cautious approach. There are certain things JC can't do. BBRY can't grossly overproduce phones and run up inventory. Would be seen as going backwards and poor leadership, not to mention write off.

    I'd be curious for feedback from others who are more savvy regarding sales in India. Although I'm long BBRY it's not an easy perch. I've been watching Passport sales on amazon.in since release about a week ago. Every day it has been listed as "in stock" and available. Tonight for the first time the availability changed to "available on October 20th". Given tariffs and some of the negative comments regarding the cost of the Passport I'd like data to confirm this is a good sign and that product is moving. I'm not sure how Z3 did in India: I believe there were criticisms it did not do as well in India as in some other countries. So success with the Passport in india would be great.

    Perhaps someone who knows how to track imports of these devices into India (as some have reported in the past) can provide some information as to how many Passports were brought in initially and how many are coming in this batch.

    It's nice to see that Amazon.in appears to be backordered. The only other explanation I can think of is that this is somehow related to the ongoing festival this week in India, but I've never seen Amazon list availability based on any festival or Holiday.

    I've read in a number of places, FWIW, that the Passport is expensive and time consuming to make and that these backorders were seen as necessary evils to avoid overproduction. It is a quality product.
    Oct 17 01:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mixed Bag Of Goodies: A View Of BlackBerry In China, Amongst Analysts, And More [View article]
    For what it's worth, Walmart appears to have unlocked Z30. http://bit.ly/1qgkSxC

    Z30 and Passport are quite different phones. The Z30 is quite nice for communication, Hub, all those who like it have said. Battery is quite reasonable, easily get a day's work in.

    Passport isn't instinctively what I'll reach for to make a call, but otherwise, for email, web, apps, preferred. Camera on Passport noticeably better. Battery, well makes you forget that a battery can be an issue for smartphones.

    As far as keyboard, they both have attractive features. The Z30 intuitive typing and multiple word suggestions outpace the 3 word suggestions of the Passport, but the capacitative touch keypad of the Passport and real "keys" are quite comfortable and will appeal to those who like a keypad.

    Good luck hunting.
    Oct 12 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When The BlackBerry Dam Breaks: Rising Revenue And Other Good Things The Bears Are Not Telling You [View article]
    @KIA

    Just getting around to read responses. See you still don't get it....

    Ok, so here you go....as I said UNPATCHED. This is from a Mac website. Read the article. Apple was aware of this for months.

    http://bit.ly/1p06Uj5

    "According to emails between Apple and noted security expert Ibrahim Balic, Cupertino was given information of a similar security flaw as early as March of this year. In an email from that month, Balic informed an Apple official that he had successfully bypassed the feature designed to stop a so-called “brute-force” attack taking place."

    Read more at http://bit.ly/1p06WHB"

    Given the photo scandal, I think Apple will likely be much more responsive to these issues in the future. I think they either dismissed the concern or were distracted or lazy. The fact it got patched fairly soon after the scandal broke suggests the "fix" could have been made earlier.

    If you still don't believe that this was an unpatched vulnerability that wasn't tended to, well, sorry to burst your bubble. It's in black and white above. As I said, accept it for what it was.
    Oct 11 04:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mixed Bag Of Goodies: A View Of BlackBerry In China, Amongst Analysts, And More [View article]
    Agreed, very nice work and stupendous effort. We should be so lucky as to get this information from an analyst covering the company instead of sound bites.
    Oct 9 06:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Let's Not Get Too Crazy [View article]
    @mag1205, @Ziffster, @mapodga

    There is always room for a sober look at any stock, BBRY or otherwise.

    Agree that marketing can be very expensive. Despite the popularity of the Passport, selling out twice on ShopBBRY in short order, the reality is that the majority of those in the US still think BBRY is out of business and has stopped making phones. It pains me to say it, but it is what it is. The interest in the Passport is refreshing. If BBRY could sell 1M Passports in a month it would go a long way towards heading off talks of extinction.

    Despite this somewhat serious outlook, for anyone who wants to get pumped up a bit about Passport marketing, check out this ad from South African cell phone operator Cell C featuring the Passport. Great ad. http://bit.ly/1ttnUj1

    Like it or not, we are watching a high wire act. Those who quoted JC noting that we may not have seen that bottom with revenue absolutely heard him right. At the same time, there are unmistakable statements that enterprise interest in BES is strong enough to consider ending EZ Pass early. I would not imagine they would make those who migrated starting paying for services earlier, but it is an incentive to catch the EZ Pass train before it leaves town.

    I'd like to know others' opinions of these insider trade filings: http://bit.ly/1utd2FW?menu_tickersearch=BB+...

    And I'm keeping a close eye on India. There is always a lot of disgruntlement in India due to tariffs on new phones. It will be important to see how sales go there. No one is saying the price ($899 US) is great, but the carriers are doing lots of promotions to bring the price down. Still, it's by no means cheap. If sales in India meet or exceed expectations, then I think this Passport has real legs internationally (due to the size of the market, and the fact that BBRY is not going to win over India with Z3). If India falls flat, then we'll need a good response to BES release on Nov 13, as it could be a momentum killer that bears seize upon.

    Am wondering about the drop in SP at end of day, if related to any developments at Gartner conference....
    Oct 6 09:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When The BlackBerry Dam Breaks: Rising Revenue And Other Good Things The Bears Are Not Telling You [View article]
    @KIA

    I think you're still missing the point I'm making. But thank you for validating my concern that iCloud has shown vulnerabilities.

    To spell it out more clearly, Apple doesn't "announce" security gaps in any of its products. The gaps are only apparent after someone has exploited them.

    If you want to believe that iCloud is "secure" at the moment, go ahead and believe so. I believe that thinking is naive. I wouldn't put my personal information there, or Yahoo, Gmail, Hotmail, either for that matter.

    The reality is you've not "caught" anything. But you have affirmed that iCloud has had vulnerabilities that Apple may or may not have been aware of. I'm not sure which is worse, ie whether they knew or didn't know. Based on this history, it's likely more will be identified. I hope that is not the case for the sake of individuals who use the service.
    Oct 5 04:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When The BlackBerry Dam Breaks: Rising Revenue And Other Good Things The Bears Are Not Telling You [View article]
    @KIA

    No, I'm not confused about what I wrote and in the past have pointed out a number of observations in your posts that were inaccurate.

    First, most of the "unpatched" items only become apparent after the fact. What we are seeing now is a greater awareness of the vulnerabilities of iCloud and other Mac products. Making an assumption that all iCloud vulnerabilities have been patched is just plain ignorant.

    Second, for the latest set of patches, see the following.

    http://bit.ly/1CJrcp2

    Third, in a few days or weeks it is a certainty that additional vulnerabilities will be found. It is foolish to think otherwise.

    Apple is not built with security as a primary goal. That gives it strengths and weaknesses. Accept it.

    It's always possible to keep on denying the obvious, much as with "bendgate". Apple will fight back with all the weapons it has, including threats, to deny problems exist, and to keep individuals in the dark as to hacks, vulnerabilities known and unknown, until released by a third party. If you think Apple is telling the truth about all these issues that is naivete.

    http://bit.ly/1DZP8Gj

    If you still don't want to believe, stay tuned...

    http://yhoo.it/1CJrTP6

    And if that is not enough, yet more issues....

    http://read.bi/1qWTHaa

    What is most frightening for iOS users is that this wasn't really a major overhaul of iOS, going from iOS 7 to 8 was not like going from BB7 to BB10.
    Oct 4 01:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Accidentally Helps Watsa As BlackBerry Finds Love In New York, Tokyo And Seoul [View article]
    @KIA

    I know you're out there. Just keeping you posted on the latest report of a hack of the Apple ecosystem.

    http://yhoo.it/1rIpj7f

    I use a MacBook Pro (as well as Dell, Lenovo), so of interest to me for practical reasons. At the same time, the notion that iOS devices (or the vast majority of other OS's) that were not built with security in mind are free of hacks, vulnerabilites, etc, is a myth.

    And for those who wonder why an "Apple bashing comment", this is not an Apple bashing comment. It's called a news story. And its relevant because Apple is a market leader in a market in which BBRY has a stake, a market in which many want to vote BBRY off the island", so to speak, for their personal entertainment or profit.
    Oct 3 10:38 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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