dr.doolittle

Assessing Speculative Activity: ProShares Ultra ETFs as Emotionality Indicators

great stuff. "fear/greed" seems exacty right. having it opposed to "complacency" I'm not so sure of. the government is bailing out the pensioners--it seems to me I would categorize these folks (in a market sense) as "defensive" or if I may coin a phrase "common sensive." there is a workaday profit world that most people interact with everyday but don't even notice. Even though it appears "complacent" it would seem to me that what it really is is "consistent" or perhaps just "there." The "bezerker class" gets going when energy prices soar--and now that energy and all the commodities attached to it have collapsed I think this represents an excellent time to put them on the couch. I like the idea that psycology affects the market participants--how does such a crushing defeat affect the institutions these individuals represent? Will they "strike back"? A "terrorist" attack perhaps? Acceptance? Honesty? Helping those who have no intention of returning the favor? Looking at capital flows is interesting as a measure of speculation, but that is about to dry up now that lending for such activities is simply done for. Market participants will still be buying, however. It's the psychology of the "sell" or "loss" side that seems quite salient at present.