coldcall

Silver Wheaton: The Safe Alternative to SLV

I like SLW just because they have come at mining with an innovative take with their streaming model.

Long SLW - even though getting a little battered last few days :-)

A Market Rally in Monopoly Money

Michael,

Interesting point you mention about the threat of negative interest rates in order to get everyone spending and borrowing like druken sailors again.

In fact here in the Uk the government has already started lecturing us ordinary folk that we are now saving too much and not borrowing enough. In other words, its all our fault that the economy isnt picking up as expected :-)

Check this out in today's Telegraph: (BOE warns against thrift!)

www.telegraph.co.uk/fi...









On Sep 21 06:13 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> Another good article, J.S. So the Fed is giving with one hand (stock
> appreciation) and taking away with the other (dollar depreciation).
> So this stock rally is designed to make us feel good, good enough
> to throw our savings back into risky assets like housing or stocks.
>
>
> Wait until the negative interest rates come: to penalize American
> citizens for saving. This will be the final act of cowardice -- and
> should be considered a second 'shot heard 'round the world': the
> declaration of a governmental tyranny that must be resisted with
> force.

BlackRock's Evy Hambro on Gold

Really? Perhaps lower gold production is one factor but to claim its the major driver of the rise of gold is buffoonery! Has Evy ever heard of the US dollar/gold correlation?

But hey, thanks for reinforcing my already low opinion of professional advisors.

Thanks but I'll keep my own counsel as its provided me a better return than any silly advice from Blackrock.

Gold: What Professional Futures Traders Think

Here's a link to a blog with a very clear graph showing the almost perfect inverse correlation between dollar and gold.

bigpicture.typepad.com...

This is basic economics 101 folks, dont get confused by people over complicating the drivers for gold.

Gold: What Professional Futures Traders Think

Chap08,

So people are buying gold at $1000+ an ounce because they think inflation will raise its ugly head in how long exactly? I'm not saying there wont be an inflation problem at some stage but i dont think the recent rise in gold has much to do with anything other than the weakness in the US dollar.

The US dollar, being the world's reserve currency, is losing its shine so its natural for people to look for a substitue reserve currency and there is nothing more suited to that role than Gold.

So there is no need for a strawman argument about inflation/deflation because atleast for now, the dollars weakness is enough to keep gold at the $1000 mark.


On Sep 18 04:55 PM chap08 wrote:

> twitee (& ilc, partly)
>
> A few points:
>
> 1. Gold IS going up because of inflation (or rather, the expectation
> of inflation). Note that inflation is the same thing as devaluation
> of the $.
> 2. There is nothing about recession that will make gold rise. There
> is no linkage between rising gold and recessions.
> 3. The inflation v. deflation debate is not "a lot of nonsense" (ilc).
> You seem to be basing this view on the 1930s. The situation now is
> completely different. Then we had a gold standard (gold and the $
> were the same thing). Now we have fiat (gold and the $ are opposites).
> If we have deflation now, there would be no reason to expect gold
> to gain against the dollar. In deflation, the dollar would gain against
> food, consumer goods, oil, industrial metals etc. etc. Why should
> it not also gain against gold?
>
> Don't worry though. We're not going to have deflation to any great
> degree. We'll have the Fed waging war on the dollar, inflation expectations
> rising and gold rising over time as a result.

Gold: What Professional Futures Traders Think

Twittee says all there is to say about gold - the dollar.

If you think the dollar will remain weak then gold will remain strong. They are inverse, its that simple. Trying to analyse speculators and traders, or the supply and demand factors for gold is just looking in the wrong place for answers.

Im bullish gold only because i cant see how the dollar will climb out of its hole - unless we had another market panic attack.

And hell trading gold mining stocks is fun because of their almost insane volatility!

Corporate Credit Market Rally Irrationally Exuberant

Walter,

But not all corporate debt is equal and the reason why corp bond prices are still so high is because the returns are so much higher than one could get from a bank, or in gov bonds. So i dont see anything risky with people parking their money in investment grade corporate bonds. There's nothing irrational about it.

Of course there are probably specific issuers who are close to defaulting but then investors should be carrying out due dilligence before committing their money.

However writing off the who credit market as irrational is irrational in itself. Maybe you are shorting bonds and losing your shirt.

Jaguar Mining Can Easily Go Lower

Shorting JAG seems a bad idea to me and surely there are many better targets for shorting.

I think Rich's point about Jaguar being unhedged is a key reason not to short this stock.

Five North American Natural Gas Buys

Theres no way the Canadian or US governments would allow domestic nat gas businesses to fail completely (on masse). Nat gas is a *strategic* resource remember. At some stage we'll need more production and if one allowed these nat gas giants to go bankrupt, where would the nat gas come from? Are we going to start importing it? We've already got enough problems having to import crude from dodgy producing countries.

Your prediction is overtly alarmist.


On Sep 04 09:42 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> uil. ) Just when I get comfortable with my view on Natural Gas, I
> get a scratchy, reverberating cell phone call from one of the major
> formations telling me that I’m being way too bullish. Gas won’t bottom
> at $2. The free fall will continue until it hits $1. National storage
> will be completely full imminently top out, and when it does, the
> producers will have to shut down completely. Since these guys are
> leveraged up the wazoo, this will trigger a string of bankruptcies,
> and the majors will fall like dominoes. A hedge fund bust won’t define
> this bottom, as these guys are all playing from the short side. UNG
> can’t step in as a buyer of last resort, as the SEC won’t let it
> issue more stock, and the current shares are trading at a ridiculous
> 20% premium. One thing we do agree on is that the bottom will look
> ugly, whatever the spark is. You often get Armageddon type views
> near market bottoms, but this guy has been dead on right until now.
> Well, it takes two to make a market. Conclusion: keep NG nailed to
> your screen, as the widow maker is where the volatility lives.

Fed Manipulation: Adding to the Bloggers' Case

jimboy,

its very simple. The Fed makes it known it will re-purchase the bonds issued by the government, so the primary dealers lap it up knowing they can offload them back to the originator for a quick profit.

Of course there is demand for such a racket - not necessarily demand for the bonds.

Thats the nitty gritty.

Fed Manipulation: Adding to the Bloggers' Case

Agreed. The Fed's actions are a blatant scam in order to make it appear as if there is enough demand for the debt they are issuing.

Thats the point that was being made by Zero Hedge and its 100%demonstrably justified.

Fear Makes A Comeback

I dont see any fear at all. I see some profit taking by traders.

The only time stock prices collapse is when there is a serious shock to the system, as we had in October through March. Since then things havent gotten worse, and arguably are bottoming out.

So I dont buy this idea that we will see another plunge because it takes investors filled with blind panic for that to occur.

Treasury Market Rigging: John Jansen vs. Tyler Durden

I'm starting to think John and Tom protest too much. Okay so Tyler may have made some errors in his piece but the fundamental issue concerns this debt monetization.

I'm starting to think John Jansen opened up on Tyler because he being the "bond guy" should have made a noise about the shameless circular racket involving the government and primary dealers.

I like reading John's blog but I have noticed he is loathe to rock the boat, and no doubt, he cant make these sort of claims because his network of contacts are the Treasury dealers and the commercial bond market.

Or thats how i read this whole mountain out of a molehill.

Frankly Im more concerned about how we have all been ripped off by the greatest financial scam in all of history - and its almost a distant memory now.

Monetizing Debt: Disinformation in the Blogosphere

The fed buys the bonds because if the primary dealers cannot sell those same bonds then the yields skyrocket.

Its no wonder primary dealers are making huge amounts in their bond departments because they have a willing buyer of last resort in the Fed. God knows what spreads they are charging and what the Fed is paying.

While Jansen may have a point that some of the blogs exaggerate, this activity is till dubious no matter the caveats.

It pays big to be a primary dealer these days.

$75 Billion in New Treasuries on Deck Momentarily

It's ironic really. The Chinese still hold treasuries in such high regard. In theory the US could keep pumping out notes forever and ever, as the Chinese seem to never get tired of buying them.

It's absurd.