3 Signs of a Near-Term Market Advance [View article]
Just adding a thought to the above:
Stocks didn't begin the rally to the Oct. 2007 peak until the first quarter of 2003. Not only was that well after the recession ended, it was also well after earnings crashed and AFTER they had already risen over 21% from the bottom.
So while a short term bounce is always possible, if history repeats stocks won't begin a sustained rally until after earnings crash and after they once again have a show of strength.
3 Signs of a Near-Term Market Advance [View article]
Nice article but here's a question:
If profits fell just over 50% peak to trough during the last downturn, given the extraordinary circumstances this time around why should we not believe they could fall by at least that much (if not more) now?
That would put the S&P at just over 23 times forward earnings at present so on that basis, I think we need to consider the possibility that stocks are relatively expensive.
Peter. let's face the facts. You had it totally wrong on the dollar, gold, commodities and emerging markets. You failed to account for the dollar's gain due to the risk unwind and you failed to see the commodity slide. Your constant touting of EM's has been a disaster this year.
Now you want to peddle a book explaining these "impossible to foresee" events. These events were not impossible to foresee for many.
You got blown out of the water this year with your dogmatic approach. Get over it.
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3 Signs of a Near-Term Market Advance [View article]
Stocks didn't begin the rally to the Oct. 2007 peak until the first quarter of 2003. Not only was that well after the recession ended, it was also well after earnings crashed and AFTER they had already risen over 21% from the bottom.
So while a short term bounce is always possible, if history repeats stocks won't begin a sustained rally until after earnings crash and after they once again have a show of strength.
3 Signs of a Near-Term Market Advance [View article]
If profits fell just over 50% peak to trough during the last downturn, given the extraordinary circumstances this time around why should we not believe they could fall by at least that much (if not more) now?
That would put the S&P at just over 23 times forward earnings at present so on that basis, I think we need to consider the possibility that stocks are relatively expensive.
Market Tales Get Taller [View article]
Now you want to peddle a book explaining these "impossible to foresee" events. These events were not impossible to foresee for many.
You got blown out of the water this year with your dogmatic approach. Get over it.