Stevie West Coast

Looks Like We'll See Dow at 10K - Soon?

The 'rallies' we have been witnessing have be of low volume and questionable as useful indicators. Technical analysis might be otherwise useful, however in this unprecedented environment it is of little value. Note that futurists always use the past the predict the future, and get it wrong about 99% of the time. Twain put it best: "I never make predictions...especial... about the future".

Our expectations have been lowered and warped to the point that we get excited when the government decides to spend OUR money to bail out aging business run by inept and/or corrupt management. What the government, financial industry and media are trying to do is cheer lead the market so as to avoid a wholesale run on the markets, banks, etc. Nobody trusts any of these institutions anymore. The US economy has cancer, and sending it to a tanning salon won't help. Yes, it's that bad.

Bad News for Housing

America still goes about its business as it were in the post war boom period. This is norman and human, because they were good and stable times. That's in the past. The likelyhood of our housing and stock markets behaving predictably as they have in the past is unlikely. The world has changed and we still think we are the center of the universe. As one example, General Motors has known for 20 years that the energy paradigm was changing and did little to nothing. This is linked to housing because a nationally healthy housing market requires a healthy middle class...that is the real issue. If average home prices cannot be paid for by average incomes, then prices must fall. The real estate boom was fuelled by trciky mortgages that made the unaffordable...afforda... The part noboady wants to face or discuss is that everyone cannot have the American Dream. America has a chance at competing in the world economy if it can get grasp that the real 'players' of the future will be those who have mastered the art of living well with less.