RWRocksOn

ATP Oil & Gas's Forgotten Infrastructure Value

a nicely thought out article with objective data. Only part of ATP's revenue streams will depend directly on the price of energy - fee based structures will provide some balance, although one can caution that similarly structures MLP's on the mainland have gotten trashed recently.

A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka The Dilution Solution

Vulcan certainly has a lot of debt, but their debt covenant calls for total debt to capital less than 65% and they are at 50% and have all ready written down a billion of the Florida Rock goodwill. In addition, 30% of the Florida Rock purchase was with Vulcan stock that was also topped out (I think at $113). The rest of the deal was cash which may or may not have been a good idea - a normalized economy will tell. I do not agree with all their capital allocation decisions - the decision to continue issuing a dividend while selling WEB 10% plus bonds strikes me as a bit strange.

Vulcan Materials Company Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

ps - I'll also point out that part of that florida rock goodwill was purchased with Vulcan stock at $113 (about 30% of the total purchase it would see) - the rest was cash. So, while the Florida Rock stock was higher than it would likely be now, so was the Vulcan stock.

One must remember that when the demand for aggregates returns - and it will, but not likely to the housing bubble fueled frenzy of the mid decade - NIMBY will mean a lot of goodwill is justified.

Vulcan Materials Company Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

the covenant spelled out in the 10-Q stipulates that total debt to total capital must not exceed 65%. Total assets are now at $6.9b with $3b of goodwill from the Florida rock purchase (this is after a billion write-down earlier in the year) and total debt is $3.5m - they are at 50% seems okay for me, even tho' another write-down might be in order. Amazingly, Vulcan has little equity that is NOT goodwill.

analysts rarely ask good questions - they are always asking for "color" and I want questions about "meat"

I too am perplexed with the issuance of 10% plus bonds to WEB while continuing to issue dividends. I'd rather have a better company protecting my equity than collecting a shaky dividend (as much as I like cash).

Atlas Pipelines: I'm Out of Here

where did you find the break out of the NGL's from revenue. I see that gas and natural gas derivatives are grouped under one line on the 10-K.

Raising capital by equity issuance when the stock was trading in the 40's was a good move by management for pre-existing stockholders. The goodwill in the Anadarko purchase had to do with the high price of gas and NGL's.
at the time. Management has no choice to write it off with commodity prices dropping - to do otherwise is fraud. Note that when prices go up, goodwill will NOT go up - GW can only go down.

The time to sell APL was long ago, when the price of oil was so high consumers were cutting back. The upside is much greater than the downside. If APL makes their debt covenants and the price of oil goes up even a bit more (can anyone say weak dollar) this can easily be a ten bagger within 1-2 years.

Also remember that APL paid out a substantial distribution for many years before slamming their management as a destroyer of capital. I agree they overlevered themselves.

Year End Review of My Income Portfolio

The Atlas MLP's are down hard due to concern about violation of APL's debt covenants, not just concern about the distribution (not dividend, by the way) dropping. I so also feel that the market has oversold APL/AHD.

Canadian Superior's Trinidad Gas Find

SNG is a Dhando pick - low downside (Western Canada supports the current market cap) and lots of upside in Trinidad and perhaps even more remotely in Oasis and the New Jersey LNG pipeline. Having said this, Noval is a loose cannon with a history of overpromising and underdelivery. Right now (11/2/08) the stock is a reasonable bet, but I would seriously consider selling on a pop due to a press release touting as of yet unproven reserves.

Given economies of scale, production in Trinidad will give them tremendous upside, with net margins increasing proportionately far more rapidly than gross margins.

ATP Oil & Gas: Growth Rate, Valuation Outweigh Risk

ATP doesn't do exploration, it does development. That's the competitive advantage of the company!

If You Think Oil Will Recover, Consider Atlas Pipeline

try this investor presentation slide show:

library.corporate-ir.n...

Rog


On Nov 01 12:21 PM Itsonlymoney wrote:

> Thank you for the information. Could you also unravel the confusing
> ownership structure of APL and AHD?

Attractive Outlook for MLPs Following September Lows

see my postings on APL/AHD/ATLS on the Motley Fool's boards. Sorts by rec's. The Boards are free.

I have been buying AHD over the past month. As APL's dish increases, there will be a disproportionate increase in AHD's dish. ATLS is also a great buy and was ridiculous at under 20. Someone downgraded them on debt covenant issues and the details don't really match the fear. I've owned a variation of Atlas for 4-5 years now.


On Oct 12 09:17 PM 1930pkc wrote:

> anyone have feelings about APL with 20+

Kinder Morgan Energy: A Little Corruption, American Style

actually, the price you pay to piggyback onto Knight (fka KMI) is the stock price. The stock price for KMP/KMR reflects the distribution per share not (directly) the earnings. Those buying the stock do need to look to the splits to understand how future growth will affect their cut of the dish. In addition, the leverage applied by the company and embedded in the yield for a given dish must also be understood by the investor to appropriately value the stock. If the splits were otherwise (more favorable to KMP, for example) then the stock price would be higher. The yield will be about the same no matter the split for a given interest rate, inflation and projected growth environment.


On Nov 29 08:10 PM W. Eichler wrote:

> Someday KMP will have Distribution per Unit of $10.00.
> At that time the GP will receive 42.375% of that amount.
> The LPs will receive 57.625%. And that is the price to piggy-back

>
> on this great company.