fawnpass

Must Read for China Investors: Fact and Fiction in China

Yet another armchair analysis from across the world. I would advise the author to go to China and see for himself that he is off-base.

Avoid China and Emerging Markets in 2010

The whole premise of this article is flawed. You wrote that
"Emerging Markets Including China are not prudent investments at this time - Investors are betting on emerging markets based upon an improved outlook for developing nations’ exports".
Well, anyone who is investing strictly on the basis of improved exports is at risk due to a flawed and incomplete strategy. While increasing exports will certainly help China, it is far from being the driver. As for high property valuations in China, I would not recommend buying property as an investment at this time, but there will be no overall market collapse in the near term. There will be some dislocations related to the property market, but this factor, too, is not the only driving factor- albeit an important one. Before you write an academic article taking such a strong negative view you might want to go to China and take an assessment with your boots on the ground.

China in a Bubble?

CHina Interest-

"The property market is a massive bubble - there are literally thousands of empty residential building throughout China, from 1st tier to fourth. Take a look at night at all the buildings without lights on."
What you write is true, but does not explain the full picture. The reason for the empty buildings is that there has been a build-out of large high-end luxury apartments. Most folks that can afford these buy one to live in, and several for speculation. As housing prices drop and/or lack of buyers, they are content to sit on the empty property rather than take a loss, and are not buying more. However, there is a supply shortage of new "normal smaller sized apartments" the kind the average worker wants and can afford, which in turn pushes up the price of smaller and second hand apartments. From the developer's view, luxury apartments make more money so that is what they build. An analogy for this dislocation would be if all of the sudden the only new cars available for purchase were ferarri and mazerati, hence the problem. This problem will only go away with more government-subsidized affordable housing projects.

China Agritech: Undervalued, Little Known

cihd, Changda International holdings, is another ag fertilizer company to look at, with low float and possible uplisting in the short to mid term.

Coffee from 'Shangri-La'

I lived in Yunnan for four years before moving to the north. While Yunnan coffee purchased from stores is usually disappointing it is usually because it is not fresh, and/or has not been packaged/stored properly to maintain freshness. However, there are several cities I frequent where the cafes all serve a very wonderful and distinct cup of Yunnan coffee that could be served at the very best places worldwide...currently I just wish I could buy that bean here in the north. With major companies moving in perhaps soon. I have also within the last year read about major domestic investment in a couple of companies looking to distribute nationally, but so far have only seen them in Beijing and the coffee is a good value for the price-range but not yet high-end. We also have a coffee roaster here in Shijiazhuang, but even their fresh out-of-the-roaster beans are lacking in quality, although most of their beans are imported.

Is China the Next Great Bubble?

There is a China bubble coming, but the author has misidentified it. The coming bubble will inflate months down the road, when the rest of the world sees China continuing to hum along and grow as countries like the US continue to slide and stagnate. The gigantic sums on the sideline will begin to flow into China as FDI, and once the spigot is opened full-bore an enourmous bubble will follow.

Chinese Youth Will Propel Economic and Political Changes

The author of this article clearly knows what is going on in China; it concurs with my own "on the ground" observations. It amazes me how many posters have commented negatively on his article, who clearly have never been to China. Probably the same bitter financial experts who didn't see the current real estate or financial crisis coming.

Chinese Real Estate and the Global Recovery

Excellent article with good points, but a few factors overlooked: As you stated, most of the empty luxury apartments bought by speculators were not highly leveraged, and so there will not be a rush to sell soon; people are content to let them sit. In fact, many of these apartments were highly subsidized by the work unit, often to the tune of over 50% of the cost. Your observation about buiding maintenance is highly acute, since maintenance of anything is relatively rare in China. Because of this there will be a softer eroding of investment, rather than a catastrophic crash. While there is not a lot of inorganic demand for luxury apartments, organic demand for "average working man" apartments is actually lower than supply at the moment. Given the nature of the tools available to the autocratic government, you will see a shift of policy fostering a build out of smaller, cheaper apartments and that is already beginning in major cities. This will keep construction crews employed, but industrywide profits will face a steep decline trending to the future.

A123: Investors Are Forgetting the Fundamentals

China digital technologies (formerly CHID) has a rather sordid past, only recently rebranded with a new ticker and soon to be new name. Seemingly formerly solid company that has been torn apart by seemingly fraudulent management (shell businesses moving around). No, not a basher, but I did own the stock when all of a sudden they sold off the lithium division in a trade to gain a carved wood idol business. Now, somehow they have the lithium business back. That's the reason for the lagging price. Soon they will have a new name along with the new ticker symbol and their past may be forgotten. I advise new shareholders to do their DD. Perhaps the company has changed.

Shares Could Be Signaling an Upward Turn for Chinese Economy

My advice is just the opposite of stay diversified regarding China. Certain Chinese sectors will rebound even as others languish and suffer. Do your due dilligence and if you are confident in your analysis, put your eggs in the basket you believe is strong.


On Feb 06 04:37 PM myWealth.com wrote:

> It's very hard for the average individual to invest in Chinese individual
> stocks and know what they are getting into. I'd suggest sticking
> with CAF (the ETF) or another ETF (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
> My preference is the former.
>
> I'd always stay diverse in China and never isolate my money to their
> individual stocks or even just one sector over there...since people
> have such a hard time getting data from outside of China.
>
> Until they develop further and also have less controls on information,
> I'd stick to that game plan of ETF investing in China.
>
> You might ask a broker like Interactive Brokers that deals in so
> many international markets how to invest in their auto industry.
> But I'd never suggest doing so. Stay broad and diverse.

It's 1974 for the U.S., but 1929 for China

I am in China. It is obvious this author is not. I, too, along with other posters are curious about how this article got published here, and it questions the credibility of this site.

The Year of the Ox Arrives in China, Land of 'Currency Manipulation'

Not sure which bank you are using in China, but I have made one time withdrawals of over 100,000 from single accounts at both the Bank of China, and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, in the last couple of years and as recent as last month; they do not have daily limits on withdrawals.


On Feb 02 10:41 AM hazenyc wrote:

> i think he is implying the daily ATM limit is in place to prevent
> mass withdrawls a la A run on the bank...
> You can go inside and cash out ur account in a cashier's check the
> ATM limits are in place to: prevent most people from accidentally
> withdrawing too much money from their measley checking accounts..
> and to ensure the machine doesn't run out of money!

China Is Looking Fragile

At least this blogger lets you know in advance he doesn't know a lot about China before he waxes on about how it is here. There seems to be a rash of china experts who blog about what is happening in China from their local midwestern Starbucks, or in this case, Panera. IF you are going to pretend to be an expert why not actually go do some on the ground research and get it right...

GM Must Die

The perfect solution to an imperfect situation would involve Obama's new "auto industry czar" overseeing a GM bankruptcy, the beginning of a universal health care with the newly unemployed and retirees being brought first into the fold, and government bailout money and managerial assistance in overseeing the now bankrupt GM's assets being sold and divisions merged into profitable companies such as Honda and Toyota (which are operating profitably in the states) or VW, BMW, or other companies that want to expand into the US market, in a timely manner in order to shore up job loss and tax revenue. Difficult, yes, impossible, no.

Why I'm Worried About China

As more and more China doom and gloom articles like this, written by people with seemingly no China experience or knowledge (business or otherwise), are appearing in media outlets, it only reinforces my opinion that chinese stocks are oversold and finding a sound bottom. I am glad I am heavily invested in China at this time and will continue to add to positions. It's only a matter of time before the herd money is channelled back into China.