Here, with bogus data, I use a scale of 1-10 (which could mean ordinal ranking among the types of batteries), but you could also have each leg use absolute scale (e.g. 3,000 or 40,000 cycles before toast at 100% DOD).
The other design question is whether it would be more helpful to analyze cost as its own leg in the chart, or if each leg should be normalized against cost --- e.g. 40,000 cycles normalized to 425 cycles/kwh/$). I think the latter would provide the most 'analytic bang'.
And then there's the task of researching the actual data for the various battery types... ;)
Axion Power Concentrator 239: May 24: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
What would be the next public indicator of progress with the OEM automaker supplier?
Would we see an MoU press release (e.g. when they've concluded negotiations), zero notice until vehicles show up at an auto show with Axion inside, or something in between?
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
I google'd a report that said he was retiring as of March 31, 2012. http://bit.ly/13zfflC Though that probably just means he gets to avoid the more chore-some activities of managing assets.
And from this article, speaking on acquiring small startup hedge funds: "They can traffic in markets and in stocks that aren’t covered by a multitude of analysts. They might be looking at stocks that aren’t covered at all ... They can operate in inefficient marketplaces, and where you have inefficient marketplaces, you have better returns." http://bit.ly/MFJFw1
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
- strategic partner on SBIR grant last month - cultivating relationships with lead industry to eventually ship "an electrode that will make their batteries better" - probable several megawatts storage project in 2013 - weekly requests from other firms for PbC quotes on to price hypothetical products
investment thesis still intact... happy as a clam to have some more rope to work with after the last round of funding. hopefully longer than chuck trago warns ;)
Axion Power Concentrator 233: May 5: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond [View instapost]
"Isn’t waiting for major news the reason we’re all here? And why we’re willing to invest during a time of uncertainty for the realistic probability of reaping an out-sized payoff the PbC technology will eventually deliver?"
Axion Power International PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet [View instapost]
Very nice.
After pulling out the non-cash items (amortization of electrode, carbon sheeting lines) as they've been paid for, the break-even cash flow PbC price appears to be ~$410.59. i.e. the price point to keep us alive at 50,000 units, though at an "accounting loss".
Am I correct to assume the $8,000,000 in D59 ("Net income/loss at 50k units") is your estimate of Axion annual G&A expenses/overhead? Just to be clear, does your AGM sale price NOT INCLUDE G&A costs for conventional AGM vendors? (e.g. "Non-lead cost") If that is the actual retail sticker price, and AGM companies are profitable (i.e. selling AGM batteries at $225 and covering their overhead), shouldn't our non-lead cost ALREADY reflect the assumed G&A/overhead of $8,000,000? And perhaps that doesn't need to be included in cell D59? In other words, I think "Non-lead AGM Costs" D47 may be double counting with the -8,000,000 in D59 -- if my assumptions/comprehension of your sheet is correct.
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
And if a prospective suitor made it a point that they were concerned about the carbon sheeting process in the course of their due diligence to enter a financing relationship, would Axion then invest extra time and raw materials to seeing it finished? ...in which case there is some assurance that they aren't going to become insolvent and could stomach that loss of liquidity? It would be more than 'shakedown testing on a new machine' but rather to please a prospective strategic partner.
Anyway, I just thought I'd make a conjecture and see if it made sense. If they felt the carbon sheeting process was uber important, they may move mountains to see it done. Alternatively, as already speculated, they may anticipate or hold > $1.7M in purchase orders and the two facts are mere coincidence. But consider how would a strategic partner would feel about the modest negative margin they saw if there was not some production efficiency coming down the pipe?
I rather prefer the outcome where this inventory is about trialing (with potential hiccups along the way) a new carbon sheeting line as a means to entering a relationship with a new strategic partner, rather than the alternative of $1.7M in sales forthcoming but no resolution of financing. I agree that it would be reckless to generate this inventory without the promise of future purchases and/or a strategic partner, and it is simpler and more plausible that this inventory is only about filling anticipated purchase orders.
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
Well, it would just mean that they felt that having the carbon sheeting process finished was worth the opportunity cost of $1.5M in inventory as opposed to cash liquidity.
The opportunity cost (e.g. 8% discount rate) of $1.5M cash capitalized as inventory to get the new sheeting line done three months early is only $30K... or $120K if they were to sit on that $1.5M in glut inventory for a full year before finding a client to sell it (again, 8% discount rate). Is that PR announcement worth $30K to $120K in opportunity costs if it nets them a strategic partner / better financing terms based on the success and announcement of the carbon sheeting line? Probably.
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
An alternative explanation for the inventory might be that they had finally conceptualized the final touches for the carbon sheeting process and wanted to see if their plan worked -- even when they didn't have the demand for the sheets... (A carbon sheet should be recorded as work-in-process inventory but if the PbC fab is automated and they had the other inputs they could just produce the final goods anyway with minimal negative cash flow.) So what we are seeing may not be in anticipation of known purchase orders from a client, but rather a glut from trialing the new carbon sheeting process and proving it out. Just another possibility to rein in some speculation...
Also, did we ever confirm that BMW was the party that ordered the 3rd-party testing? I see that "fact" conveyed frequently but the last I saw was the bill of lading which indicated they had been sent back but NOT any more information than that. I have missed concentrators/comments so if I am ignorant please enlighten :)
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
Does a drastic change such as automated carbon sheeting require any review for ISO compliance? Or does the February 2011 ISO 9001 certification still stand?
I am also curious to know if this carbon sheeting automation was the result of stable, on-going R&D or if TG/AP has devoted additional man-hours recently to especially strive for this development (perhaps to assuage a prospective purchaser's worries).
Axion Power Concentrator 241: June 4: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
http://bit.ly/Zyp2H9
Axion Power Concentrator 239: May 24: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
I concur with analyzing our 'storage ecosystem' and could be interested in putting some charts together like this:
http://bit.ly/14K0T1g
(totally bogus values/scale)
Here, with bogus data, I use a scale of 1-10 (which could mean ordinal ranking among the types of batteries), but you could also have each leg use absolute scale (e.g. 3,000 or 40,000 cycles before toast at 100% DOD).
The other design question is whether it would be more helpful to analyze cost as its own leg in the chart, or if each leg should be normalized against cost --- e.g. 40,000 cycles normalized to 425 cycles/kwh/$). I think the latter would provide the most 'analytic bang'.
And then there's the task of researching the actual data for the various battery types... ;)
Axion Power Concentrator 239: May 24: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Axion Power Concentrator 239: May 24: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Would we see an MoU press release (e.g. when they've concluded negotiations), zero notice until vehicles show up at an auto show with Axion inside, or something in between?
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
http://bit.ly/13zfflC
Though that probably just means he gets to avoid the more chore-some activities of managing assets.
And from this article, speaking on acquiring small startup hedge funds:
"They can traffic in markets and in stocks that aren’t covered by a multitude of analysts. They might be looking at stocks that aren’t covered at all ... They can operate in inefficient marketplaces, and where you have inefficient marketplaces, you have better returns."
http://bit.ly/MFJFw1
Know any marketplaces like that?
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
- cultivating relationships with lead industry to eventually ship "an electrode that will make their batteries better"
- probable several megawatts storage project in 2013
- weekly requests from other firms for PbC quotes on to price hypothetical products
investment thesis still intact... happy as a clam to have some more rope to work with after the last round of funding. hopefully longer than chuck trago warns ;)
Axion Power Concentrator 233: May 5: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond [View instapost]
Couldn't agree more.
Axion Power Concentrator 233: May 5: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond [View instapost]
Let's hope the next raise is after we've maxed out our production capacity. ;)
Axion Power International PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet [View instapost]
Axion Power Concentrator 232: May 1: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond [View instapost]
Axion Power International PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet [View instapost]
After pulling out the non-cash items (amortization of electrode, carbon sheeting lines) as they've been paid for, the break-even cash flow PbC price appears to be ~$410.59. i.e. the price point to keep us alive at 50,000 units, though at an "accounting loss".
Am I correct to assume the $8,000,000 in D59 ("Net income/loss at 50k units") is your estimate of Axion annual G&A expenses/overhead? Just to be clear, does your AGM sale price NOT INCLUDE G&A costs for conventional AGM vendors? (e.g. "Non-lead cost") If that is the actual retail sticker price, and AGM companies are profitable (i.e. selling AGM batteries at $225 and covering their overhead), shouldn't our non-lead cost ALREADY reflect the assumed G&A/overhead of $8,000,000? And perhaps that doesn't need to be included in cell D59? In other words, I think "Non-lead AGM Costs" D47 may be double counting with the -8,000,000 in D59 -- if my assumptions/comprehension of your sheet is correct.
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
Anyway, I just thought I'd make a conjecture and see if it made sense. If they felt the carbon sheeting process was uber important, they may move mountains to see it done. Alternatively, as already speculated, they may anticipate or hold > $1.7M in purchase orders and the two facts are mere coincidence. But consider how would a strategic partner would feel about the modest negative margin they saw if there was not some production efficiency coming down the pipe?
I rather prefer the outcome where this inventory is about trialing (with potential hiccups along the way) a new carbon sheeting line as a means to entering a relationship with a new strategic partner, rather than the alternative of $1.7M in sales forthcoming but no resolution of financing. I agree that it would be reckless to generate this inventory without the promise of future purchases and/or a strategic partner, and it is simpler and more plausible that this inventory is only about filling anticipated purchase orders.
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
The opportunity cost (e.g. 8% discount rate) of $1.5M cash capitalized as inventory to get the new sheeting line done three months early is only $30K... or $120K if they were to sit on that $1.5M in glut inventory for a full year before finding a client to sell it (again, 8% discount rate). Is that PR announcement worth $30K to $120K in opportunity costs if it nets them a strategic partner / better financing terms based on the success and announcement of the carbon sheeting line? Probably.
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
Also, did we ever confirm that BMW was the party that ordered the 3rd-party testing? I see that "fact" conveyed frequently but the last I saw was the bill of lading which indicated they had been sent back but NOT any more information than that. I have missed concentrators/comments so if I am ignorant please enlighten :)
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
http://bit.ly/WIE7pu
I am also curious to know if this carbon sheeting automation was the result of stable, on-going R&D or if TG/AP has devoted additional man-hours recently to especially strive for this development (perhaps to assuage a prospective purchaser's worries).