enigmaman

enigmaman
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  • Smelling The Recession  [View article]
    Author is correct stating we will know we are in recession only by looking backwards at the stats, administration, pundits, analysts are not paid to call a recession in real time and they don't. The last recession ended in 2009 though you wouldn't know it in the past 7 yrs as we have had the worst recovery in modern time and we may roll right back into another one if we haven't already. The recent markets volatility does not bode well , momentum seems to be building so expect more of the same because what starts as uneasy concern can easily become much more before real panic hits. Unless there is some good news anything that seems good no place to go but down.
    Feb 6, 2016. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (96)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #96  [View instapost]
    "70% of the job gains went to minimum wage jobs."

    so as far as wage policy it seems to be working very well for the low end which is where all the focus has been, and people wonder why things are so messed up for the middle class. The admin went from saying it would create good paying green jobs to settling for better paying carbon (burger flippers) creating low end jobs.

    The low paying beginner jobs used to be considered the launch pad where workers began work experience which moved them forward now they these jobs are considered the landing pad where full time workers have no dreams of improving their lot in life.
    Feb 5, 2016. 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing Lessons From Hillarycare  [View article]
    JS you said " My comments comparing public and private bureaucracy are drawn from over 45 years of experience negotiating in both the public and private sectors. In my experience (and others experience may vary) there is virtually no difference between the two except in administrative technique."

    The virtual difference is one is for profit the other for control, the for profit has to provide some modicum of benefit or alternatives will be considered, the other not for profit gov option does not have to care about profit, benefit or worry about alternatives because there aren't any. Its clear given the choice you prefer being under the control of government I prefer the option to choose which I prefer or if non at all. With profit you control it, with Gov it controls you.
    Feb 3, 2016. 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 1/20/16: CONFIRMATION EVENT In My Vix Model  [View instapost]
    SG- yes "There is a lack of reality to all of these plans." the problem is politicians do not sell reality, reality is seldom legislated into law only dreams froth with delusion sell. Old saying " sweet song had betrayed many" the sweet song of ACA lured many even the educated only to find out it was all based on a lie and the CBO score which was touted as reality was a farce because they score only based on the info provided, real or not, garbage in garbage out.

    We agree but unfortunately what we know to be true is not what any candidate that wants to get elected will say at least not in public. The lure of DC is a powerful aphrodisiac.
    Feb 3, 2016. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 1/20/16: CONFIRMATION EVENT In My Vix Model  [View instapost]
    SG- problem is that by 2023, its predicted 100% of tax rev will go to pay for entitlements, defense and interest on the debt, unless this is addressed the rest "free tuition" is a mute point, promise what he wants but somebody has to pay and it wont be just the 1%, nobody rides for free.

    Also free tuition sounds great but to say only the 1% will pay is a farce, folly, its just a ruse to get it accepted, passed and enaacted then they lower the boom on the middle class. Because as it happened in other countries the smart money finds waay to shield themselves from the higher taxes
    Feb 3, 2016. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing Lessons From Hillarycare  [View article]
    You posit "If life and health are sacrosanct and the maintenance and preservation of life and health is a core value and a societal ethic," is this your personal belief or are you stating it as a well known held belief/fact by who/whom?

    I ask because ones good health and access to free healthcare is not guaranteed at least not in the USA. You can argue its merits for or against but its up to the individual to decide how, when, where if at all. Personal responsibility was once sacrosanct, It wasn't to long ago that a Democrat President in 1961 said these words "My fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country." - John F. Kennedy

    This belief was once revered by both parties but no more, you will never here this quote uttered by any democrat and few Republicans today because they no longer believe it.

    As to " if anyone thinks that private bureaucracy is more efficient than public bureaucracy" says everything about what you believe so no use having the discussion
    Feb 2, 2016. 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing Lessons From Hillarycare  [View article]
    single payer is the plan of the gov,by both sides, draw in health insurers on promise of millions of new insured balanced between healthy and not, now that this is not the case 50% of COOPS closed, UNH pulling out (550K insured) later this year, less options for the insured, premiums rise, out of pocket goes up, deductibles go up, quality care goes down. A perfect scenario for the debate on going to single payer health care totally under the total control of the government. That was and still is the end game wanted by both parties, democrats leading the way, Rep right behind them kicking a screaming (not so much) in the end its all about their power over us. The destruction of our healthcare system was no accident. Once the gov controls our health they control us
    Feb 1, 2016. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (95)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #95  [View instapost]
    LMH- Yep we can wish and hope for any possible good news that's for sure, but unfortunately we have to deal with reality that the people running things really dont have a clue
    Jan 29, 2016. 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (95)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #95  [View instapost]
    Tack- Ok understood that right now higher oil helps put off or stop some credit defaults by producers which is a good thing and helpful to stabilize markets, At what point will that benefit be discounted as it relates to corp earnings. Markets are not forgiving, if corp cant grow rev organically, they have been hard pressed to ending 2015, then at some point soon (nxt qrter) earnings will disappoint in higher % then deemed acceptable.
    Jan 28, 2016. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (95)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #95  [View instapost]
    2015 was good, 2016 little better, 2017 falling sales units, so F is probably considered at its peak for now and through 2017, owners probably thinking good time to book profits
    http://tinyurl.com/gt8...
    Jan 28, 2016. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford caps record year with strong Q4  [View news story]
    Estimate auto sales will moderate through 2016 and fall in 2017, so sell high is probably wnat is happening to Ford http://tinyurl.com/h6a...
    Jan 28, 2016. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (95)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #95  [View instapost]
    LMH- concerning oil, http://tinyurl.com/zbo...,

    http://tinyurl.com/j6l...

    Ok so we may get some market stabilization for now but to what end, as F&G pointed out no recession ever started because oil was going lower, so if it stops and reverses what does that do to economies of the world struggling to maintain profits let alone grow (rev and earnings) will rising oil put further drag on profits and consumers, will it be the trigger to push us in recession because its not like corporations are raving earnings bulls and quite sanguine about the future, our economy is far from firing on all cylinders,
    Jan 28, 2016. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Production cut chatter has oil flying  [View news story]
    this is just about chatter but if oil supply is cut how exactly is that going to help strengthen the US economy, right now with record low oil US economy is eroding, corp report falling revenues and earnings as most others countries, so how is higher oil going to stimulate the economy to grow. One commentator was correct that low oil doesn't start recessions, higher oil does. So with economy contracting, wages rising, profits falling how does higher oil prices help our economy without structural change to lean more favorable toward business and consumers
    Jan 28, 2016. 09:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 1/20/16: CONFIRMATION EVENT In My Vix Model  [View instapost]
    Capitulation is the eye of the storm so now the questions follow: If capitulation is the "During" part of "Before, During, After" what happens before and after

    What event will start the":Before"?
    possibly the EM energy debt collapse,or China hard landing, or Fed rate increase, or energy debt defaults in US,what will be the catalyst to start the panic sell off.

    IMF and World bank will be meeting to discuss bail outs for EM energy debt, so that's on the radar and possibly could be the trigger event. They see a problem so should we.

    China economic details not exactly trusted so maybe they confess the real state of the economy and or devalue the Yuan in spite of them saying "no way XIAM" so maybe this will be the trigger event

    What about our own energy producers who cant make debt payments and profit with oil under 70 barrel, at what point do they throw in the towel causing massive credit defaults. This may be the trigger event

    Now my belief is before any event and resulting capitulation the big money will bail first then retail investors finish the sell off with biggest losses in panic and so then we get capitulation.But to what end?

    According to article by Wolf Richter " Big investors are bailing out of stocks" . In December Blackrock polled 175 of its largest institutional clients and found they are infact bailing out of the markets, moving to alternative investments.

    That being the case this will be orderly, no panic, no capitulation so continued downside seems all but certain with no way to tell where it ends without a trigger event. IMO this institutional selling wont in it self be the trigger event

    So what will be the "Before" event to trigger the capitulation needed to reboot, restart the markets to stop the drip drip drip selloff?

    Then with the "Before and During" identified and witnessed the other question is what is the "after" where do we end up, what does it look like after the selloff.

    Doesnt seem like the "after" life will be anything to get excited about, if oil rises we get pushed into recession as our business economy is barely getting by,corp revenues are falling and earnings just barely beating out estimates. Next quarter earnings get hit more because you can only squeeze the nickel so hard, not a reason for stocks to rise.

    Fed raising rates same result as above, puts brakes on economy.

    More QE, negative rates either just kick the can down the road, "walking dead.

    So somebody tell me what scenario plays out where we are back in good economic state. Seems like DejaVue all over again
    Jan 28, 2016. 07:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 1/20/16: CONFIRMATION EVENT In My Vix Model  [View instapost]
    Capitulation, "when you throw the baby out with the bath water", remember in the movie Wall Street, Gordon Gecko when he knew he was had on Bluestar "sell it all" not orderly, not controlled, no price barriers just get me out. We are not seeing this as of yet, just the smart money unwinding positions as they tell the dumb money, there smart for not getting all emotional and selling, the emotional stuff happens when the dumb money realizes all the smart money is now in cash, thats when panic set in and we drop 500 pts for couple days
    Jan 27, 2016. 06:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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