enigmaman's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/290630/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/179545-stop-calling-this-recovery?source=feed#comment-819475 819475
3rd quarter GDP was reported at 3.5% then revised down to 2.8% one month later, that was bad, then 4th quarter was estimated to be 2.8% now expected 2.2% that is worse, from what I understand 6-8% GDP is normal coming out of recession so how GDP under 3% can be considered very good is puzzling.

Who are these people saying that GDP under 3% is sufficient for a recovery

Also you have to take into consideration from where GDP was and where it is now, if 4% was the norm then a move from 2.2% to 2.8% should not be considered anything other then less bad. If you had $1 then lost 90% of it in the market , grew it to .15 would you allow your broker to tell you that you had a 50% gain or would you still look at it as a loss, its the same with GDP


On Dec 23 11:44 AM thiazole wrote:

> Perhaps the author should work to change the definition of recovery,
> then. What we know is that the first positive quarter of GDP after
> this recession was the 3rd quarter, and it was as good or better
> than the first positive quarter after most recessions. We also know
> that the 4th quarter will also be positive, and most analysts believe
> that it will be significantly better than the 3rd quarter. So we
> KNOW that we will have two consecutive quarters of moderate to strong
> economic growth (and only the most bearish among us believe that
> Q1 of 2010 will be negative). That sounds like we are in recovery
> to me (not recovered, but in recovery). How would the author propose
> we should define recovery if these standards aren't good enough?
> And how would those standards hold with previous recessions (remember
> that it took YEARS after the 2001 recession before GDP growth crossed
> 3%)?]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:37:47 -0500
3rd quarter GDP was reported at 3.5% then revised down to 2.8% one month later, that was bad, then 4th quarter was estimated to be 2.8% now expected 2.2% that is worse, from what I understand 6-8% GDP is normal coming out of recession so how GDP under 3% can be considered very good is puzzling.

Who are these people saying that GDP under 3% is sufficient for a recovery

Also you have to take into consideration from where GDP was and where it is now, if 4% was the norm then a move from 2.2% to 2.8% should not be considered anything other then less bad. If you had $1 then lost 90% of it in the market , grew it to .15 would you allow your broker to tell you that you had a 50% gain or would you still look at it as a loss, its the same with GDP


On Dec 23 11:44 AM thiazole wrote:

> Perhaps the author should work to change the definition of recovery,
> then. What we know is that the first positive quarter of GDP after
> this recession was the 3rd quarter, and it was as good or better
> than the first positive quarter after most recessions. We also know
> that the 4th quarter will also be positive, and most analysts believe
> that it will be significantly better than the 3rd quarter. So we
> KNOW that we will have two consecutive quarters of moderate to strong
> economic growth (and only the most bearish among us believe that
> Q1 of 2010 will be negative). That sounds like we are in recovery
> to me (not recovered, but in recovery). How would the author propose
> we should define recovery if these standards aren't good enough?
> And how would those standards hold with previous recessions (remember
> that it took YEARS after the 2001 recession before GDP growth crossed
> 3%)?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38777?source=feed#comment-818669 818669 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:15:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/179468-predicting-housing-s-post-stimulus-drop?source=feed#comment-818624 818624

On Dec 23 09:42 AM Smalltownbanker wrote:

> In addition the industry must retrain it's decision makers, underwriters
> and credit policy managers, to reduce reliance on automated loan
> decision engines from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and others. We need
> to return to common sense decisions based on closer examination of
> eligibility by human eyes.]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 09:48:36 -0500

On Dec 23 09:42 AM Smalltownbanker wrote:

> In addition the industry must retrain it's decision makers, underwriters
> and credit policy managers, to reduce reliance on automated loan
> decision engines from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and others. We need
> to return to common sense decisions based on closer examination of
> eligibility by human eyes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/179503-existing-home-sales-signal-a-return-to-normal-conditions-in-housing-soon?source=feed#comment-818614 818614
Depending on the type of hybrid loans that were taken out within the last five years, 5/1, 3/1 etc can easily rise even though the notes used may have fallen, that is because the new rate is calculated by taking the average of the corresponding treasury used, adding the margin to this usually 2.75% the resulting rate cannot exceed 2% of the previous rate, so even when rates are down rates can go up, insidious and devastating to most owners, but you got yours so its all good


On Dec 23 09:10 AM Tim Plaehn wrote:

> For you reset worry guys. My prime ARM reset this month to 3.125%,
> lowering the payment by $250 and increasing the amount paid to principal
> by $100 per month. My original rate on the mortgage was 5%. Go Fed!]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 09:42:18 -0500
Depending on the type of hybrid loans that were taken out within the last five years, 5/1, 3/1 etc can easily rise even though the notes used may have fallen, that is because the new rate is calculated by taking the average of the corresponding treasury used, adding the margin to this usually 2.75% the resulting rate cannot exceed 2% of the previous rate, so even when rates are down rates can go up, insidious and devastating to most owners, but you got yours so its all good


On Dec 23 09:10 AM Tim Plaehn wrote:

> For you reset worry guys. My prime ARM reset this month to 3.125%,
> lowering the payment by $250 and increasing the amount paid to principal
> by $100 per month. My original rate on the mortgage was 5%. Go Fed!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/179545-stop-calling-this-recovery?source=feed#comment-818602 818602
If the market does go sour does anybody doubt it will be a blood bath because 2008 & 2009 precipitous market declines is still very fresh in the minds of investors.


On Dec 23 08:51 AM TCK wrote:

> Don't discount the fact that people are buying stock simply because
> the continuing poor economy means that interest rates will not rise
> zero until after the elections next year.
> ]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 09:34:13 -0500
If the market does go sour does anybody doubt it will be a blood bath because 2008 & 2009 precipitous market declines is still very fresh in the minds of investors.


On Dec 23 08:51 AM TCK wrote:

> Don't discount the fact that people are buying stock simply because
> the continuing poor economy means that interest rates will not rise
> zero until after the elections next year.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/179490-year-in-review-newton-s-law-of-motion-mean-reversion-and-momentum?source=feed#comment-818565 818565 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 09:14:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/179490-year-in-review-newton-s-law-of-motion-mean-reversion-and-momentum?source=feed#comment-818549 818549

On Dec 23 05:40 AM socrateaz wrote:

> This is interesting because I have realized both ideas. Where I
> seem to be frustrated is that I tend to chose momentum bottoms reasonably
> well, but tend to sell ralleys too early or hold failed ralleys too
> long. Bad timing has hit me a lot. Then again maybe the timing
> aspect is a lot of luck. But this article makes me better understand
> the two psychologies. I need to better understand how to cash out
> gains using such stratgies.]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 09:03:28 -0500

On Dec 23 05:40 AM socrateaz wrote:

> This is interesting because I have realized both ideas. Where I
> seem to be frustrated is that I tend to chose momentum bottoms reasonably
> well, but tend to sell ralleys too early or hold failed ralleys too
> long. Bad timing has hit me a lot. Then again maybe the timing
> aspect is a lot of luck. But this article makes me better understand
> the two psychologies. I need to better understand how to cash out
> gains using such stratgies.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/179503-existing-home-sales-signal-a-return-to-normal-conditions-in-housing-soon?source=feed#comment-818527 818527
Year over year sales comparisons is very misleading but make great positive headlines

Consider SE Fl area a very big real estate market

Nov 09 total resales fell below Oct 09 as well as through June 09
Dec sales are expected to fall even more
Resale prices tumbled an amazing 6% from Oct 09 to Nov 09

So when our source "The report data" makes general statements that upon cursory review can be easily shown as questionable it cast doubt on the rest of the data you parrot.

Ok so you want to paint with limited colors a rosy picture thats works for you, thats fine, at least disclose that its a one sided look, without benefit of opposing views or information, whether one believes the glass is half empty of half full depends on what one started with. ]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 08:47:51 -0500
Year over year sales comparisons is very misleading but make great positive headlines

Consider SE Fl area a very big real estate market

Nov 09 total resales fell below Oct 09 as well as through June 09
Dec sales are expected to fall even more
Resale prices tumbled an amazing 6% from Oct 09 to Nov 09

So when our source "The report data" makes general statements that upon cursory review can be easily shown as questionable it cast doubt on the rest of the data you parrot.

Ok so you want to paint with limited colors a rosy picture thats works for you, thats fine, at least disclose that its a one sided look, without benefit of opposing views or information, whether one believes the glass is half empty of half full depends on what one started with. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/179542-goldman-sachs-the-rally-will-continue-into-2010?source=feed#comment-818462 818462 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 08:09:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/179488-top-ten-reasons-why-the-yield-curve-will-flatten-hint-this-is-a-different-sort-of-recession?source=feed#comment-818403 818403 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 06:41:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/179476-third-time-s-the-charm-yet-another-take-on-u-s-gdp-growth?source=feed#comment-817812 817812 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 18:16:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38684?source=feed#comment-816931 816931 1- Does the second wave of modifications include a better quality borrower who were able to forestall being delinquent longer then the first over leveraged less qualified tier

2- Does lowering the payment stop of just delay eventual foreclosure because if you've gone from a two income to one income family or are now underemployed or unemployed a lower payment helps but will not end differently.

It would have been nice to have more info on these specific matters because without them its hard to draw any conclusion, with them you would be able to make a better forecast for the future ]]> Tue, 22 Dec 2009 09:10:48 -0500 1- Does the second wave of modifications include a better quality borrower who were able to forestall being delinquent longer then the first over leveraged less qualified tier

2- Does lowering the payment stop of just delay eventual foreclosure because if you've gone from a two income to one income family or are now underemployed or unemployed a lower payment helps but will not end differently.

It would have been nice to have more info on these specific matters because without them its hard to draw any conclusion, with them you would be able to make a better forecast for the future ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/179325-unchartered-economic-waters?source=feed#comment-816871 816871 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 08:33:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/179285-financial-crisis-don-t-just-blame-the-bankers-consumer-ignorance-played-an-equal-part?source=feed#comment-816849 816849 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 08:14:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/179038-homebuyers-are-settling-for-smaller-houses?source=feed#comment-816837 816837 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 07:56:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/179193-john-hussman-clarity-and-valuation?source=feed#comment-816051 816051 Mon, 21 Dec 2009 14:03:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178990-no-economic-joy-for-joe-six-pack?source=feed#comment-815454 815454

On Dec 20 12:20 PM isaac the terrible wrote:

> Question for you Moon- since you don't trust the policy makers, and
> question their motives, what would you be doing if you were in their
> place?
> I generally find much of what you write to be very inciteful, but
> I also see so many people throwing stones at Bernake who are just
> good at complaining, but have have no realistic alternative policies
> of their own. Would you really want his job? I think its a very
> tough job- it seems like an error of several %, or several months,
> can get leveraged into a huge error of results, and he is acutely
> aware of the pitfalls. Who would be better?]]> Mon, 21 Dec 2009 08:14:28 -0500

On Dec 20 12:20 PM isaac the terrible wrote:

> Question for you Moon- since you don't trust the policy makers, and
> question their motives, what would you be doing if you were in their
> place?
> I generally find much of what you write to be very inciteful, but
> I also see so many people throwing stones at Bernake who are just
> good at complaining, but have have no realistic alternative policies
> of their own. Would you really want his job? I think its a very
> tough job- it seems like an error of several %, or several months,
> can get leveraged into a huge error of results, and he is acutely
> aware of the pitfalls. Who would be better?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178982-economic-recovery-less-than-meets-the-eye?source=feed#comment-815445 815445 Mon, 21 Dec 2009 07:52:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178736-the-economics-of-decision-making-nudge-improving-decisions-about-health-wealth-and-happiness-by-richard-h-thaler-and-cass-r-sunstein?source=feed#comment-813273 813273 Sat, 19 Dec 2009 08:02:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178568-as-long-as-small-businesses-aren-t-recovering-new-job-creation-remains-a-fantasy?source=feed#comment-810746 810746 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:50:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38406?source=feed#comment-810252 810252 Take a deep breath, read my initial post slowly, and then respond to it rather then go off into a tangent that was unwarranted or called for. This president lied to the left and the right to get elected now both left and right are upset with him and for different reasons, but upset non the less]]> Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:07:23 -0500 Take a deep breath, read my initial post slowly, and then respond to it rather then go off into a tangent that was unwarranted or called for. This president lied to the left and the right to get elected now both left and right are upset with him and for different reasons, but upset non the less]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38406?source=feed#comment-809133 809133 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:30:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38386?source=feed#comment-809130 809130 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:25:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178415-first-stocks-then-the-economy-is-job-growth-next?source=feed#comment-807953 807953 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 07:56:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38327?source=feed#comment-807437 807437 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:30:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177812-commercial-real-estate-downturn-marches-on?source=feed#comment-805376 805376

On Dec 12 09:43 PM aardvark wrote:

> My bet is the doomers and gloomers are neck deep in shorts.]]> Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:19:00 -0500

On Dec 12 09:43 PM aardvark wrote:

> My bet is the doomers and gloomers are neck deep in shorts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177812-commercial-real-estate-downturn-marches-on?source=feed#comment-805369 805369 Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:14:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177963-the-increasing-velocity-of-modern-financial-crises?source=feed#comment-804361 804361

On Dec 13 05:10 PM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> GDP Eurozone $13.5 Trillion
>
> GDP Greece $0.36 Trillion
>
> Get a grip. Greece ain't exactly Europe's California!]]> Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:49:38 -0500

On Dec 13 05:10 PM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> GDP Eurozone $13.5 Trillion
>
> GDP Greece $0.36 Trillion
>
> Get a grip. Greece ain't exactly Europe's California!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177905-trade-data-points-to-l-shaped-outlook?source=feed#comment-804357 804357

On Dec 13 07:27 PM FISABEL wrote:

> you really believe that you and people like you are smarter than
> the ones who are buying and have been buying until now. LOL
>
> I think it is very bullish that the little guys the odd lotters are
> piling into bond funds - that is where the pain will be felt not
> in equities. I will buy bonds in 2011.
>
> very strong growth and then inflation is what's coming. equities
> have another 20% to the upside. Fed will then jack up rates and
> we will get 10% correction then up from there.
>
> this is a checkmark recovery. there now you know.]]> Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:44:47 -0500

On Dec 13 07:27 PM FISABEL wrote:

> you really believe that you and people like you are smarter than
> the ones who are buying and have been buying until now. LOL
>
> I think it is very bullish that the little guys the odd lotters are
> piling into bond funds - that is where the pain will be felt not
> in equities. I will buy bonds in 2011.
>
> very strong growth and then inflation is what's coming. equities
> have another 20% to the upside. Fed will then jack up rates and
> we will get 10% correction then up from there.
>
> this is a checkmark recovery. there now you know.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177905-trade-data-points-to-l-shaped-outlook?source=feed#comment-803623 803623 re balance their portfolios, better to be safe then sorry, that main street investors will be left behind to deal with the aftermath and consequences is standard operating procedure]]> Sun, 13 Dec 2009 09:15:50 -0500 re balance their portfolios, better to be safe then sorry, that main street investors will be left behind to deal with the aftermath and consequences is standard operating procedure]]>