enigmaman

Did Weekly Jobless Claims Really Fall Below 500k?

I read that for every 150K jobs lost you can tack on another 50K for those that are working but not a full 40 hour week, so there are some shadow unemployment relatd numbers that do not get much air time


On Dec 04 02:15 PM TraderMark wrote:

> Here are hours worked mid year below; I've stopped tracking it of
> late since its just ping ponging back and forth)
>
> (source: myself ->> www.fundmymutualfund.c...
> )
>
> 1.33.1 hours (July)
> 2.33.0 hours
> 3.33.1 hours (May)
> 4.33.2 hours
> 5.33.2 hours (March)

Emerging markets aren't a bubble, figures Felix Salmon, who notes that while some prices are skyrocketing around the world, a lot of assets are being paid for in cash - and without leverage, there are limits to the harm a bubble can cause.

Tell that to the people who owned there homes outright at the time the real estate bubble burst, they didn't contribute or participate in the bogus real estate market but never the less there home values tanked along with those who abused the system, so much for the theory of limited bubble damage, amazing these inane statements are quoted

And just like that, the Dow's triple-digit advance is gone. Dow now just into the negative, -1.74 to 10,364.41. S&P 500 dives, down 0.2% to 1,099.57, and Nasdaq on its way, now down 0.2% to 2,170. Basic materials, especially miners and metals, have been the drag so far.

The good news was not real check out Trim tabs link
bit.ly/5BKPdI for accurate stats, this could be why the markets have reversed or the worry about the Fed tightening, or what ever else might worry them

And just like that, the Dow's triple-digit advance is gone. Dow now just into the negative, -1.74 to 10,364.41. S&P 500 dives, down 0.2% to 1,099.57, and Nasdaq on its way, now down 0.2% to 2,170. Basic materials, especially miners and metals, have been the drag so far.

yes the market finally came to understand the shell game hat was being played with the numbers, see Trim Tabs for reality, very negative


On Dec 04 11:50 AM cash wrote:

> Anybody hazard a guess as to what happened? Dollar, gold, valuations,
> bull trap .... what is it?

Expect a Breakout or a Key Reversal Today

what about the fed tightening potential, or revision of these numbers, is it that there are less unemployed or less unemployed receiving benefits because they have expired, so many questions so few answers, why such a big miss when its the one thing everybody is watching?


On Dec 04 09:52 AM Adonis wrote:

> With the news today, and the possibility of further GDP growth next
> quarter, I don't see how people will be pulling out of the market
> going into the end of the year. I am cautious, but still in stocks
> until there is significant news otherwise.

Expect a Breakout or a Key Reversal Today

Unemployment news was a big positive surprise, wonder why all estimates could have missed by such a wide margin, this is the biggest % disparity we have seen in estimates, unemployment number is the most closely watched and to miss so badly, quite amazing, but I guess it couldn't have happened at a better time

At the open: Dow +0.9% to 10,459; S&P 500 +1% to 1,111; Nasdaq +1.4% to 2,204. Crude -0.2% to $76.28. Gold and the dollar respond to jobs news: Gold -2.2% to $1,191.30. Dollar +0.7% against euro, +1.6% against yen, +0.7% against Swiss franc, -0.3% against pound, -1% against loonie. Treasurys down, with 30-year futures -0.9% to 119-28; 10-year -0.61%, 5-year -0.5%, 2-year -0.16%.

Unemployment news was a big positive surprise, wonder why all estimates could have missed by such a wide margin, this is the biggest % disparity we have seen in estimates, unemployment number is the most closely watched and to miss so badly, quite amazing.

Our Current Economic Illusions

Its quite simple " believe half of what you hear and read and 100% of what your see" what we are witnessing in all stats and reports is slight of hand, misdirection techniques to create the illusions craved by the masses. This has been the way since the dawn of man, the arbiters of disinformation know that for the masses ignorance is bliss and work hard not to disappoint because it serves their purpose as well. The admin is selling snake oil, false illusions to willing buyers because it works and its all they have to sell, if you cant dazzle them with your brilliance baffle them with your BS!

Prepare for more Half Truths Tomorrow on Unemployment

Chauncyisms


On Dec 03 09:54 PM yellowhoard wrote:

> In the Spring there will be growth.

On a day expected to be full of bruises for Bernanke, the statement from Sen. Jim Bunning - the only senator who voted against the Fed chairman's original confirmation four years ago - is still a standout, calling Bernanke's Fed a "creature from Jekyll Island" and going on: "Rather than making management, shareholders, and debt holders feel the consequences of their risk-taking, you bailed them out. In short, you are the definition of moral hazard."

That statement and 2.75 will get you a latte at Starbucks, good for him but good for nothing because nothing will come of it, these hearing are just formalities, a forum for politicians to pander to their constituents, as each comes up for re election vote them out, its time to start over, 2012 vote our Obama so he can retire and hand with his peers Carter, Castro, Chavez

The Real Problem with Washington's Jobs Policy

The admin is not about empowering the people its about empowering themselves, that is why they prefer to hand out checks to people rather then provide them with tax relief, with a check, recipients are beholding to the check provider with tax relief they are beholding to themselves, how they live their lives and spend their money, the Gov wants and demands control everything they are doing is to that end


On Dec 03 12:41 PM User 353732 wrote:

> Less Big Govt = More real jobs
> Less Wall St = More Main St
>
> Why is this a "problem"? It isn't.
> Its a willed choice.

Bubbles Abroad Shouldn't Prevent the Fed from Acting

To add insult to injury the Fed Gov is subsidizing first time homes buyers, the riskest segment of the market, providing the down payment so borrowers have no skin in the game, then insuring these FHA loans without recourse to originating lenders who sell the questionable to loan to investors (FED Gov), so the borrower has little if anything at risk, the lender has no risk the entire burden falls on FHA ,owned by the Fed Gov and all these questionable loans are backed by US taxpayers, so in the end nothing has changed the burden is put on the backs of American taxpayers once again, does anybody really believe these loans will not be back to bite us yet again!


On Dec 03 06:56 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> I agree the Fed and policy makers could have done a better job regulating
> CDS and CMO contracts, requiring minimum down payments, requiring
> Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from using government guarantees to run
> themselves into bankruptcy, limiting leverage art brokerages to say
> 30 to 1, etc. Ceretainly this would have stopped some of the market
> frothiness and make our economy that much more robust from implosion.
>
>
> The fact that they still haven't regulated in the aftermath shows
> they don't care, are so beholden to bad business and their executives
> they can't make rational policy decisions anymore, are completely
> ignorant, our regulatory and policymaking is so broken nothing can
> get done anymore, or all the above.
>
> Given that our regulatory and policy system is too broken or too
> slow to achieve anything meaningful, we are left with trying to limit
> bubbles by preventing the Federal Reserve from making their constant
> catastrophic choices in fixing rate policy and from violating the
> basic tenant of good monetary policy, that being don't monetize your
> currency into oblivion with QE.
>
> In my view both paths towards preventing bubbles are broken. I would
> be happy just barring the Federal Reserve from making terrible decisions
> that cause them to start.

Recession, Depression, Deflation, Inflation, Collapse or Recovery?

When you consider the economic course the Admin has us on you wonder if it is their intention to break down our political system to rebuild it in a way they feel is more conducive and supportive of the role they feel government should play in the lives of Americans. I have never seen a time since the GD when people have felt as hopeless and scared as they do now. What is alarming is the fact that Obama does not instill any confidence in the American people with his eloquent speechs, in fact more and more of those that embraced him now scratch their heads in wonder, they dont get it, they dont get him, he talks of things that do nothing to help solve the problems we face, instead he drives forward on issues that will add burdens to the shoulder of Americans, crushing burdens that will force many more into the ranks of the poor. Something is wrong in DC, something is not right with Obama, more and more people are feeling it and that is why he is racing for the finish line to make sure he gets his dangerous legislation through before we can stop him. As more figure out that Obama has his own agenda and doesn't care about what America wants our country will fall into a state of chaos that will prolong the economic problems we now face.

New Lows in Pessimism Could Signal a Top

investor newsletters have historically always been wrong, so if they are bullish that is bearish for sure, not sure where you get that investors are increasingly confident, Im not reading that nor does the volume back you up, 1/3 expect a correction of 10%+ what about the other 66% do they expect new highs or new lows, 1/3 the equation is of little use. So in the end, after all your analysis its expected that those who are bearish will jump on board to push the market to new highs and then force the correction that they have expected, I assume its the dumb money sitting on the sidelines your waiting for, well I have bad and good news, the bad news, If your waiting for the dumb money to get on board you will have to wait a very long time, so forget about capitulation, the good news is in the mean time the market should continue to rally to higher highs with no end in sight so make sure your 100% in and if your able margin up to the max because its blue skies for as far as the eye can see.

Key next steps for the FHA, from HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan's testimony (.pdf): focus on enforcement, reduce maximum seller concession to 3%, raise minimum FICO scores, increase up-front cash for the borrower, and increase insurance premiums. (via)

so they will go back to the old proven guidelines like before the liberals had they say and way with the industry, before they destroyed it for all of us