enigmaman

Richard Russell: Downturn Will Be 'Vicious'

Failure is not an option, when you consider where we are in relation to other recession recoveries there is no shades of gray we either fish or cut bait. Our economic head winds are enormous, higher taxes, cap & trade, Healthcare, unemployment, foreclosures, CRE, unprecedented government intervention into private industry, biggest surge in boomer retirement, crippling personal wealth destruction, and widespread distrust and anger at DC, adding to these concerns is these issues would be a challenge for the best of presidents, which Obama is far from, then you have to consider that any good news for the economy would be bad news for our recovery because the Fed reserve will be faced with decisions that will almost insure the derailment of any recovery we may experience. If we fall back into recession then everything that the Fed has done would have dome nothing but add more debt and misery on to the shoulders of main street. So while failure is not an option it is clearly a very real part of the equation. We have every reason to fear for our future because those that we have elected as our representatives clearly have abdicated their fiduciary to the American people.

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

anything can happen thats for sure, especially when you consider there are potentially another 8 million homes that could be foreclosed on in the next 4 years. But if you look at the current national average home price it is back to around 2003 levels which is before homes values began to increase by double digits, the norm being 3-5% year prior to this. The key to not going where you project is job creation, once the unemployment stabilizes and reverses home prices will level the longer that takes the lower home prices will go. Its not about your chart its about jobs, your chart exists in a vacuum the economy does not.

Michelle Girard: Recovery Ahead — With Jobs

Not one question about MIA consumer, or affects of unprecedented destruction of individual and business wealth, or affects of consumers attitude adjustment from wants to needs based as well as business attitude growth adjustment. These would seem very relevant to the discussion at hand. Since this recession was not your garden variety, was unprecedented, explain why the recessions of the 70s & 80s compare or should be. Plenty of questions remain, loose strings to many generalizations and looking to the past to predict the future

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

You said " that 2009 would be the year of premature top calls" that was a no brainer because there always have been and will always be prognosticators that try to call tops and bottoms based on whatever fundamentals and technicals that appear to reinforce their belief. But eventually one of them will be correct correct. You seem to make fun of Doug Kass a bear who correctly called the bottom, a genius but now a clown because he is calling the top. Believe what you will at your own peril but no matter how good the market appears from its lofty heights, except what is reported the game has not improved on the playing field

Roubini on Unemployment: 'The Worst Is Yet to Come'

It obvious that the President has given up attempts to create jobs in any substantial way, he doesnt know how or what it will take. The little he has done to stimulate make work jobs had strings attached, those jobs that involved government required union labor to be hired, those non union companies that successfully bid the job had to agree to pay union dues to the unions even though they did not have union workers, extending unemployment benefits is understandable but does nothing to rebuild our economy , giving states the money to keep union employees (teachers, police, fire department, municipalities) working feels good but does nothing to stimulate the economy and is counter productive if saving the jobs are not justified, everything Obama does is political for political gain, he is not about doing the right thing at all, he is all about doing what is politically correct for him and his party. As we learn more and more about just how inept he is and how partisan and damaging his policies really are we can take comfort in knowing that these are not going un- noticed and should cause major upsets for his party in 2010

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

For the economy and the stock market to recover in earnest and be sustained will take three things
1- Washington DC cooperation
2- Wall Street cooperation
3- Consumer cooperation

No sustained recovery will take hold and succeed without all three, at this time all three are at odds with each other. To me its that simple, as I see it " we all want to go to heaven but nobody wants to die" I have been through several recessions since 1971 and can only say that this one is unlike any other I have experienced, a so called perfect storm of events both here and abroad. If you recall the move "Perfect Storm" in the middle of the worst storm in 100 yrs the captain made a life or death decision and turned his ship into a big wave, he made it over, the sky opened, light shined through the storming skies, his face relieved because he made it, then as quick as it came the sky turned black and he saw a monster way dead ahead and he knew it was the end.
In this market, this economy its not what you see that you have to worry about it what you dont see that is the problem. We are heading for some very rough seas in uncharted waters, that both DC and Wall Street only look out as far as they need to feel good about things should give one pause, that this market rises inspite of heading into these uncharted waters should make one err on the side of caution

Four Indicators for When to Exit the Rally

Considering all the carnage that has occurred since the beginning of this economic and stock market route began in 1999 you wonder why the smart money would hang on and wait for all the exit lights to be flashing " SELL" before leaving the party, chips in hand. Seems to me they would be sneaking out the back door while the party is going on hard, smiling and telling the rest of us not to worry they are just going out to get a smoke.

While Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein understands that "people are pissed off" with bankers, he says everybody should be happy: "Companies are looking to grow again and raise money. That's where we come in. The financial system may have led us into the crisis but it will lead us out."

its not that the CEO may believe his ridiculous inane statement its that he has no qualms or reservations to make such an obscene observation out loud, in the full light of day, it goes to the fact that he must feel like he has very close friends in very high places in Government, it appears we have returned to the times of Sodom and Gomorrah, Caligula, Nero, Marie Antoinette all of which ended badly

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

and to think the state is #1 in foreclosures, has above average unemployment, the residents think they are living in desperate times, maybe the state should tell them to check out their own Vegas, because the casinos are full, people are partying so stop crying and complaining because its not as bad as you think, like the man says "its a jolly good depression" man up, pussies

On Oct 17 02:54 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> I just came back from a week in Vegas. The hotels and restaurants
> are full of tourists. Tons of canadian, chinese and south american
> tourists, Gambling halls are packed on the weekends. Obviously
> good deals abound. It's a jolly good "depression".

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

No surprise, recent days where 1/4 of daily volume involved handful of securities, double digit daily gains of virtually insolvent companies, market churning going nowhere for the past week, bounce in the morning, flat all day then bounce at the close, market seems to be struggling to stay positive, overly bullish sentiment getting stronger as daily volume has been picking up just as the market appears to be rolling over

51.68% in 165 Days

Wall Street was all in at the bottom, they caused the reversal and resulting rally on declining volume, they held up the market all on their own until institutional money managers fear ful of being accused of missing the boat climbed aboard a few months later and now appear to be fully invested, all that is left is for the fearful retail investor to be convinced by Wall Street thats its safe for them to get on board as well. Based on Wall Streets history for sacrificing the retail investor for the good of the market, it seems that another black Oct is a forgone conclusion and then it starts all over again.

Top Ten Reasons Why the Yield Curve Will Flatten (Hint: This Is a Different Sort of Recession)

so after all is said and done it appears the ticket we hold in our hands is for an unexpected "round trip" we have not prepared for and to make matters worse we have picked up additional expensive baggage on our way back that we could not afford, didnt need or could use, looks like another garage sale will be needed very soon.

How Long Will This Bull Run Last?

As long as the bulls can run that how long, not only are they pushing this market up they are also pulling it as well, this market has rallied without benefit of the so called dumb money that is so important for the market to be able to act in its normal calculable manner, I mean as far as being predictable enough for the smart money to turn tail without losing its tip. Without the cooperation needed the bulls will soon get so tired that they will no longer be fit to continue their run. The difference is this time the dumb money was more scared about getting in then being out and the smart money had no choice but to get in and now they dont know how to get out because they will have no one to sell to except each other

Joblessness Drops? Hold the Applause

Bad news- Your dieing
Good News- Your dieing at a slower rate

Long term prognosis- We will have to wait and see

If the market is at fair value or even slightly over valued why would anyone want to buy into it at all at this point? Its not like we will come out of this recession faster and stronger then we entered it.

Using the usual recessionary metrics to quantify what has been classified a highly unusual recession doesn't seem logical, especially when you factor in all the debt the Gov has or will add to its bottom line, and then we have the big gov tax revenue loss to factor in as well as so many other things.

The Economics of Decision Making: 'Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness,' by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein

Nudge is just the short way of saying "The way to eat an Elephant is one bite at a time" this is about how to take over, take control, how to manipulate, how to coerce subtly, its diabolical in nature because it steals from you in place sight while you are smiling back at them, because you have no idea what the true intent is and this is exactly how the Obama administration operates, these tactics have been used before by leaders and all have turned out very badly for the world