enigmaman

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

For the economy and the stock market to recover in earnest and be sustained will take three things
1- Washington DC cooperation
2- Wall Street cooperation
3- Consumer cooperation

No sustained recovery will take hold and succeed without all three, at this time all three are at odds with each other. To me its that simple, as I see it " we all want to go to heaven but nobody wants to die" I have been through several recessions since 1971 and can only say that this one is unlike any other I have experienced, a so called perfect storm of events both here and abroad. If you recall the move "Perfect Storm" in the middle of the worst storm in 100 yrs the captain made a life or death decision and turned his ship into a big wave, he made it over, the sky opened, light shined through the storming skies, his face relieved because he made it, then as quick as it came the sky turned black and he saw a monster way dead ahead and he knew it was the end.
In this market, this economy its not what you see that you have to worry about it what you dont see that is the problem. We are heading for some very rough seas in uncharted waters, that both DC and Wall Street only look out as far as they need to feel good about things should give one pause, that this market rises inspite of heading into these uncharted waters should make one err on the side of caution

Closing Update for Friday, August 21: New Highs for 2009

Im one of the the market rally doubters to my own financial peril, found to many reason why I shouldnt and not enough reason why I should believe this rally was worth my money,

" A mind all logic is like a knife all blade, it makes the hand bleed that uses it"

Sometimes its true 2+2 doesn't always equal 4

How to Play the Real Story Behind Earnings

The market is considered fairly valued today, but going forward does anyone think the consumers will come back anytime soon, so absent consumers where does the economy go from here. If there is more of the same non growth positive earnings reported at some point the market will determine the cavalry is not coming and they will head for the door and fast


On Jul 26 11:12 AM waf76 wrote:

> You miss the point as to what's going on. Companies trim down their
> expenses to be profitable. That is step 1. Does it mean the recession
> is over? Hardly not, but we've taken the first step which is improvement
> in earnings. Only when they stablize will you see companies begin
> to rehire offsetting new hires with increase in revenues. Do you
> think everything will happen overnight? Unemployment is a lagging
> indicator for a reason. Look at the temporary staffing companies.
> If you see an increase in their business then that's a sign of a
> real recovery. Temp staffing numbers represent a leading indicator.
> I don't think we we're heading lower because honestly we're not up
> so high as is. The market tends to overshoot both ways so if anything
> we still have more to overshoot.

Earnings Preview, Week of July 20-24, 2009

Seems to me that GS and JP Morgan reported great numbers as a result of Fed intervention and their great FED borrow and lending terms, otherwise they would have been DOA, IBM, Intel did well but does this represent the American consumer health or just a narrower market segment, what about GE horrendous report wouldn't that be more representative of sentiment of the broader consumer market. While the Feds preferred lenders are doing well what is happening to those who have to fend for themselves like CIT, not good. Tech seems to be doing OK but based on what, are consumers upgrading their computers, business upgrading, governments upgrading? New build Housing numbers improved, is it because demand is rebuilding or its that just that time of year where builders start homes or the first time buyer tax credit will expire soon, car sales are up slightly, why, is it clunkers for cash ? Whats is the read between the lines truth, I want to believe things are really getting better but something just isn't adding up and Im looking for reasons to believe otherwise. And don't get me started about all the spending the Gov has and will do, the new programs and higher taxes coming. Like they say " Dont piss on me and tell me its raining" I want to believe its rain but something is telling me its not