enigmaman

Commodities: The Next Recipient of Liquidity Love

Your piece has merit but when you said " Our answer is commodities. While most commodities have enjoyed a nice uptrend over the last few months, they could still have room to run. Liquidity coupled with reduced South American crops could be all the fuel that is needed for grains and soft commodities to move higher."

Your definitely maybe endorsement leaves one to wonder if your as committed as you want us to believe, "what is the opportunity"

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The good news is W Buffet says "the worst is over, the bottom in stocks has been made, dont pass on something thats attractive today" WS pundits say traders should lock in profits but long term investors should stay fully invested to keep the market stabilized, Fidelity is blasting account owners with new weekly offerings which were non existent a few months ago. This is all to familiar to many investors who recall the same being said and done as the markets began to collapse in the late 90s. To make matters worse this admin has no idea what is required to create jobs, they no longer talk about these, or foreclosures, or the CRE problems, they bury the big problems but then push harder on burdensome legislation that will further compromise our economic recovery. As usual the only ones that really believe the worst is over are those who win no matter the outcome.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

In the old normal days before the new normal rising prices on declining volume was always looked upon as a red flag warning that this could not last, now though it seems to mean something different this time, its human nature to want to believe it and when it is, it most often ends badly like with the, tech bubble, housing bubble, subprime bubble. I guess it could be different this time, but when you have less people doing the heavy lifting its just a matter of time before they throw in the towel or collapse from exhaustion, unless we see some real signs of sustainable economic improvement there will be more pain, it seems like more and more the green shoots are starting to look not so green, these many tid-bits if taken together really make you wonder what is really going on. Im not seeing or hearing any of the good news that is being reported, as a small business owner with contacts all over the country I know what is going on and it doesnt square with what Im hearing from the media. So its seems to be smart to have one foot in and one out, the key to survival is being able to pivot without hesitation


On Oct 29 09:52 AM Alex Trias wrote:

> David introduces an important concept, something that might be worth
> fleshing out a bit. We're due for a short term rally - probably today
> or Friday, under various technical indicators - NYMO, for instance.
> Longer term, if I read David correctly, we're poised for a more severe
> downturn in the price for risky assets. One of the main items (certainly
> not the only item) that David points to is this pattern of low volume
> up days, high volume down days that we've seen these last few months.
> And overall, volume has been fairly pathetic over the last bunch
> of months in any event, which signals a lack of conviction on the
> part of bulls.
>
> Here's another take on the question of volume - wonder if anyone
> buys into this. The low volume is a contrarian indicator. Low volume
> suggests investors, writ large, are highly skeptical of the rally,
> and that investor sentiment has been and remains in the toilet. If
> that is correct, and if we have been in a bull market of late, it
> would be unusual for the bull market to end in widespread gloom and
> skepticism. Bull markets typically end when 9 out of 10 people you
> meet on the subway are investing their life savings into risky assets
> with conviction. Well, looking at this light volume over the last
> half year, I wonder whether only 5 out of 10 people on the subway
> are investing in risk with determination and certainty. And I wonder
> how many of these five guys are like me, terrified each day the market
> is open for business, finger poised above the sell button, secretly
> bearish.....

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I follow , I look for and read the charts, the comments, but I feel like the cable always goes out every time the real substantive discussions are about to be begin.

So what is the point? What is the plan? What is threatened? How to react? What is the opportunity?

These matters should be discussed so that those who want to can benefit from the knoweldge and experience of SA

"Diligent weeding is better then praying"

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The information of were certain indexes, industries, etc are today is great but what is to be done with this information in the near term as well as the future? Play out some scenarios, what is the opportunity? How to react? What is the reality? We have all these technical charts, with short quips (interpretations) but never any discussions of what this information actually means going forward and that is where you separate the wheat from the chaff, what is the plan?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Investors (pros) are doing everything the can to draw in old and new clients, IPO email alerts are coming every few days now, (pros) are very anxious because they don't want to get backed in the squat and miss out on their bonuses, but Joe six pack is not buying this time around, they know from their vantage point it just doesn't feel right, so they stay in cash, bonds or coffee cans. So who is buying, I would guess the so called pros are buying from each other, so they can celebrate Dow 10,000n and short term profits. Funny when you think that main street is more in touch with reality then Wall Street who makes it decisions using technical's that can do everything but predict the future, because of the butterfly affect, in reality all they have to do to see into the future is take a short walk on main street. This government inflated market is full of hot air and it wont take much to deflate it. Sellers are eager to take the buyers money who obviously believe they can see what the sellers can not, but when buyers eventually see what the sellers saw then they will hope new buyers will not see what they now see and if they dont then the markets will go higher but if not then it could get very ugly ver quickly

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Without Gov support this faux economic recovery is toast, IMF Pres. states the world could face a double dip but as long as Gov support is provided, he doesn't see it and exclaimed how happy he was to find the Gov of the world were not going to pull the stimulus plug so quickly, in other words the patient must remain in the ICU, patient is not strong enough to survive on its own, plugging just IV could kill the patient, not very reassuring and recent new, car sales and unemployment numbers confirms that the USA is no way out of the woods, how can one stay positive about things when we owe our economic existence to the Fed Gov

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Main street doesn't see what Wall Street wants main street to see, so main street isn't buying what Wall Street is selling, its that simple, main street remembers the financial carnage of 2000, 2008 and March 09 and Wall Street has amnesia and to make matters worse you have DC making matters worse. Without DC, Wall Street and Main Street moving in the same direction you will have chaos. Point to one time in history where our economy and markets did well when this wasn't the case, just one time! There is no chart to correlate these, there should be

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Since this rally seems to be all about the dollar reflation trade, company fundamentals are useless, main stream pundit explanations and predictions useless, wall street market makers appear to in cahoots ( Ill scratch yours if you scratch mine) with the Fed working their magic, where would one go to learn about how to play this game, learn something about the dollar, commodity, treasury auctions, which main charts to watch etc

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

IMO-Until emotions (fear and greed) return to the market this market will behave just the way the big institutional traders have programmed them to, the game changer will be the return of the retail investor, because they are what is missing from the equation, they bring to the table what the market is currently lacking " emotions" until then program trading will rule this market, but when the retail investor does return the big institutional houses will rejigger their programs to start lightening up because the return of the retail investor in mass will be their sell trigger,

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Some can explain logically why they see the glass is half empty, then others can explain just as logically why they see the glass half full, then there are those of us who must be illogical because we can bo longer see the glass.

There are no traders alive today, bold or old that have been through what we are going through right now, none, all anybody has is charts, opinions and theories that are all subject to change, because none reflect what is going on today. Im waiting to see how the 18% drop in gov revenue, biggest since 1932 is factored into the equation, this is huge will it affect this market, I guess it all depends on how you see things, half empty, half full or not at all

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

With the report about Government revenues falling 18% the biggest drop since 1932, the market may think its positive when Government has less money to spend but that doesnt mean this Admin will stop spending or roll back spending, even if it did this would not solve our problems, how this market considers this a reason the run and or maintain this rally is beyond comprehension, but that is the market