Biotechs_Maven

Pick Up Antigenics at a Bargain Price

drfonta,

you might want to read more blog from Vinnie.
where he indicate that Adam F want to "destroy" small retail investor and only post bashing to help hedge fund buddies :)

but Adam F actually raise a "SKEPTICAL" point of view on this penny biotech just to remind small retail investor on the risk involved.

again, you had admit your self that you are reading both Adam F and Vinnie article,
so even if Adam F status was move to a blog,
it will still be read by you and other right ?
so the end result will be the same :)

Pick Up Antigenics at a Bargain Price

one more thing,

Adam F is very QUICK in posting a negative article on AGEN or CVM or HEB,
but he got to be quick to satisfy his reader with updated news,...

just like Vinnie who is very QUICK and UPDATE his Bullish Position on AGEN more than twice a week :)

just check Vinnie's post, and you will see how OFTEN Vinnie "update" his loyal reader about how bullish and "buy on dip" for AGEN.

The RAPID FREQUENCY of update on AGEN by Vinnie clearly show
how PASSIONATE Vinnie with AGEN :)

Which is of course is ok... as long as there are complete disclosure... right ? :)

Pick Up Antigenics at a Bargain Price

and drfonta,

one more thing,

a wise analyst of biotech should not only be able to explain the science and data,
but also to check about the past history of the management and the management reputation,
because for small penny biotech,
the management credibility and performance is actually as important as the science and the data.

When Adam F did expose the past "non performance" of the management,
usually the pumper respond is:
"Adam F made his reader lost lot of money on DNDN, HGSI and VNDA"

that is usually the mantra by the pumper :)

Pick Up Antigenics at a Bargain Price

drfonta,

everybody who invest in AGEN, or CVM or HEB, or small cap (penny stock) Biotech in general,
usually not just read the "news" section but also the "blog" section.
You clearly pointed out on your reply above by saying that "if readers just read these article and buy based on that without doing more DD, they have no business in the market",
that mean you know that most reader who do their DD will read both the "news" from Adam F and the "blog" from Vinnie.

I also very certain 99% of Vinnie reader knew who is Adam F,
and 99% of Adam F reader knew who is VFC stockhouse and Biomed reports :)

and I am sure that most of AGEN pumper never forget to remind how Adam F "make people loss money" on his mistake on DNDN, VNDA, and HGSI.
Even Vinnie had pointed it out on his "blog" before.

My point is, don't forget that Adam F is just human and he can make mistake just like we all did.

No need to connect his mistake with the "hedge funds" behind Adam F accusation.

if any of you can prove that Adam F manipulate the market with his new to benefit his hedge funds buddies,
then you guys should file a lawsuit or report Adam F to the SEC along with the prove,
and if it is proven in court, then Adam F will get jail.

A Wise analyst should be able to debate based on science and proven data, not on speculative accusation !

drfonta,
imagine how Vinnie would feel,
IF (only IF) Adam F posted on his "news" that Vinnie VFC stockhouse, had cause lot of "small guy" who listen to his "blog" loss money on AGEN,
and IF (only IF) Adam F post on his "news" accusing Vinnie was doing this "pumping" to help Vinnie's own trading and Vinnie's hedge funds buddies ?
I am sure Vinnie would be very upset :)
I would,
wouldn't you be upset Drfonta, if someone accuse you with doing illegal trade without any proof ? :)

Pick Up Antigenics at a Bargain Price

AGEN future prospect had taken a significant setback.
I think this is time for investor to actually cut loss and sell and not adding more,
especially for the one who bought at much lower price than $1.

I also notice that not many poster making nice "thank you for your great analysis" comment today.

well, I guess that must be the same treatment that Adam F get from his reader when he make mistake with DNDN, VNDA and HGSI.

Most of those reader want to be your best buddies when you are right,
but just one mistake and they hate you :)

I feel bad that a lot of investor who recently bought AGEN based only on reading an article on seeking alpha,...
but of course they can NOT blame Vinnie VFC stockhouse,
right Vinnie ?

Just like they or you can NOT blame Adam F, when he make a mistake on DNDN, VNDA, and HGSI and lot of people lost money too..., right Vinnie ?

:)

My point is, everybody who invest in biotech long enough will make mistake, (including me with many of my own mistake).

and kept pointing out how Adam F make his reader loss money on DNDN, VNDA, and HGSI do work to a certain degree,
until...
you make your own mistake, and lot of people loss money too, because they follow you blindly :)

I want to wish you the best of luck with your other bullish recommendation CVM.
cause if you are wrong again on CVM,
I am sure many of your "best reader turn buddies wannabe" will
turn back at you right away :)

ps: I am not saying CVM will suffer the same fate as AGEN though... :)

Tough Decisions for Antigenics

A Refreshing View on AGEN !

Great Article !

Cel Sci: Job Listings Are a Good Sign

@booboo,
Adam F and Jim Cramer is just providing stocks tips to people.
Just like what Vinnie do here.
Some times those tips make you money, some times they don't.
and you can not blame them when you lost money on your stock investment.

Just like you cannot blame Vinnie (VFC stockhouse),
if somehow your investment in CVM turn out to be a bust !

I am sure Vinnie understand that he is not and cannot be responsible for any loss if you guys follow his advise on CVM !
and I am sure Vinnie would not claim that he 100% always right,
and I am sure Vinnie also have some case where he misjudge just like when Adam F miss on DNDN and VNDA...

Heck, I am wrong many times too in the past,
and I am sure I will be wrong many times in the future...
All you can do is just try as hard as you can to make sure
you are more right than wrong...

This whole thing about Cramer and Adam trying to screw the little guys is really out of context,
if any of you guys can prove that Adam or Cramer try to bash stock to benefit their hedge funds buddies,
than just file lawsuit, and you sure will not only help your "fellow small guy investor" but also will win lot of money from this lawsuit !

Adam did raise interesting question and facts from HEB and CVM past,
and
Vinnie did raise interesting prospect that might came true and might not !
yes the past performance of CVM and HEB do not indicate future prospect,
but, if you know a friend who had tricked/fool you in the past,
and claim to be an angel now,
will you let your guard down ?

Yes, everybody deserve a second chance,
CVM and HEB deserve a second chance,
but it is your money here which you are betting here,
if they did turn out to be good and deserve a second chance than
it is good for you...
but how about if they do not deserve a second chance ?

please think about it first, and think again.
it is your hard earned money that you are betting here !

and Vinnie,
I am glad that today you are more reserved and do not mention Adam F as your target when you wrote the article above.
It is much better that way.

Cel-Sci May Be in for a Bumpy Ride This Week

Everybody is always biased and have interest.
Adam F might be biased and have his own agenda,
Biomed report might be biased and have their own agenda,
and you VFC stock of course (per your disclosure) biased and have your own agenda too.

so the best thing for every reader is to do their own due dilligence,
and cross examine all the posting from everybody and combine
them with your own experience and gut instinct.

The truth usually lie in the middle.

Still, I enjoy reading Adam F article more because, he do provide his article with some data from previous trial which off course support his bearish argument.
while BioMed report (especially Garza), most of the time only present story about their interview with the CEO.
Adam F is not perfect, he was wrong on DNDN and VNDA and many more,
but I don't think everybody is perfect.
BioMed Reports sure had and will continue to make mistake,
Motley fools too,
I am too,
VFC stockhouse too...

too suggest that Adam F is playing this for the hedge funds is ok if you can prove it.
and if you can prove it, Adam F could end up in lawsuit.
so please, if you have prove, then you should press charges against Adam F, but if you can not prove it, then please stop.

All this penny biotech stock madness start with DNDN and then VNDA.
so most of the time people are winning big on biotech stock because they are in the right upward momentum for this penny biotech stock, and not because they pick the right stock.

so, a lot of people can now claim how good they are by showing their huge portfolio gain on penny biotech stock.
but that do not mean that biotech company will eventually succeed with their trial and able to get their drug approved by FDA !

so for all the blogger and poster here,
rather than spending most of your time posting high price target for your own stock,
why don't you guys start posting the DATA from previous clinical trial of that company that will be self explanatory as the reason why you are bullish on this stock.

Biotech is all about DATA ! and when you are debating with DATA,
it will be clear, who is right and who is wrong.

and when I talk about DATA, I don't mean just talking about DATA from the company glossy press release,
but the DATA from their SEC filing or competitor previous clinical trial data and other more independent data !

if you guys really want to help the "little guy" then you guys should help them so they can understand what the DATA mean,
and not just posting some bullish price target or some company interview material !!!
That is NOT helping the little guy.

Most of the post from Garza and some from you VFC stockhouse,
mostly point out the Bullish reason,
but fail or rarely mention the RISK on that company trial or other risk.

You got to write all the positive and negative things about the stock,if you really want to help the little guy...
You got to be balance, even though you own/long on that company stock.
when you do that, your credibility become better,
and when you finally right about the company,

only then you can say proudly :
I TOLD YA !

Why Is Vivus Diluting Existing Shareholders?

@timeisinternet,

below is what VVUS officially said today on how they want to use the funds after they announce the $10.5 price for this offering today:

The Mountain View, California-based company said it expects to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund its research and development, including manufacturing; clinical trials, and for general corporate purposes.

so it is not for marketing !

below is the link to the article:
www.reuters.com/articl...

Why Is Vivus Diluting Existing Shareholders?

@timeisinternet,

HGSI drug is for Lupus, not obesity
DNDN drug is for Prostate cancer not obesity.
and DNDN is raising money to build their manufacturing facility,
which needed as part of FDA approval process too.

both HGSI and DNDN is very confident at their chance of getting approved by FDA this time, since their drug had UNMET medical needs on which the patients can die !

Obesity had several drug approved already, and it is not as bad as cancer in term of how fast the patients die, so even though it is an unmet need, the safety profile of the obesity drug is very important consideration for FDA approval !

If VVUS want to raise money for marketing,
they can do it AFTER the FDA approve their drug.
because the PDUFA date will be end of 2010 at the earliest !
and if VVUS raise money at that time, they will be getting much less dilution and VVUS share price will be higher (if FDA approve Qnexa).

so the current dilution is definetely not for marketing purpose !
VVUS CAN NOT market Qnexa before FDA approved it.
That is ILLEGAL !

The only reason why VVUS raise money today is
because they worry that FDA might not approve Qnexa at first try,...
or even might not approve Qnexa at all.
So they need to raise money to have cushion of cash in case the worse things happened.

plus VVUS also do not see any partner or buy out coming soon,
otherwise, they would not raise money and dilute shareholder,
when a partner can easily pay the $100million VVUS want to have as upfront payment !

so no way VVUS raise money this time for marketing purpose...
when there is no Qnexa to be marketed in the first place,
and again IT IS ILLEGAL to market a drug that had not been approved....

heck some big pharma even get billions of dollar in fine because
they market their approved drug for OFF LABEL purpose !

Why Is Vivus Diluting Existing Shareholders?

@wake up to ....

so you or VVUS simply expected that FDA might not approve Qnexa
at first pass around end or 2010, so they need to have cushion of cash if that happened in worse case scenario... right ?
that is very significant and worth a story, cause that mean,
investor will have to wait much longer before VVUS shares can go up from here due to selling Qnexa !

and VVUS currently have lot of cash and actually not in desperate need to raise more money.
between now and PDUFA date is minimum 1 year,
and in those 1 year, VVUS should be able to get partner or even get buy out if the result (especially safety) is as good as what VVUS had indicated from the press release !

so this move show that VVUS is NOT Confident at all in getting
partnership or buy out !

This dilutions translate to a 15% DILUTION to current shareholder !
no matter how you look at it 15% is a SIGNIFICANT DILUTION !
so why did VVUS did this kind of large dilution ?

remember if VVUS able to get partner right now,
VVUS shares can still go up at least 50% from current price!
and if after that VVUS want to do a dilution,
it will be done at much better price...

why can't VVUS wait to do the dilution until AFTER the partnership ?
Leland Wilson was so confidence at VVUS ability to get partner.
but this dilution show the opposite...

FOLLOW THE MONEY !
ps: can you imagine if you are a CEO of a company, and you are
asking investor to participate in the share offering,
while at the same time you are selling your own personal shares ?
Does that sound CONFIDENCE to you ?

Why Is Vivus Diluting Existing Shareholders?

Dear Ruthanne,

First of all, I want to tell you that I RESPECT your BALANCE article today !
It show that you are not a blind pumper analyst of VVUS !,
and you are a PROFESSIONAL Analyst !
and you are really looking at both angle !

Salute to you !

Sincerely,
Me

Insider Selling at Vivus Not Yet Cause for Alarm

Ruthanne, I am sure you hear the news too,
that today (Sept 16'2009) at after hour,

VVUS announce 9 million shares offering !

so VVUS CEO, Leland Wilson expect investor to buy into VVUS,
while he (and other insider) is busy selling his own VVUS shares ?

Shouldn't Leland Wilson lead by example, and buy some shares in this shares offering too ?

or did the insider sell their VVUS shares knowing in advance that VVUS will raise more money with this share offering, and they see
that VVUS share had reach the top for the time being ?

and if VVUS is going to have partnership with big upfront money,
why VVUS need to raise this financing ?
VVUS currently still have enough money to fund the operation until FDA PDUFA date, so no need to raise financing this early,
especially with the "expected" partnership idea being presented
by Leland Wilson !

Buy Out, well for now I think we can safely forget about Buy Out !

again no matter how you look at it, the VVUS share holder just got diluted,
while VVUS insider just get big profit by selling their VVUS shares at the top of the market price !

Insider Selling at Vivus Not Yet Cause for Alarm

Dear Ruthanne,

How are you ?
It had been a while since our last debate,
and I see that you are quite balance in your review of VVUS, OREX and ARNA !
That is quite refreshing, considering lately, a lot of the "new" poster in seeking alpha is not as balance as you.
and I also want to disclose that I am no longer holding any ARNA shares right now, but that could change, depend on how ARNA's other Phase 3 result going to be.
and I had never again never short VVUS, and had not plan to do,
cause I am just not comfortable with shorting stocks.

anyway, I do want to point it out to you that,
even if the insider had pre Arranged Trading plan to sell their stock, they still can cancel it if they want to.

so the fact that so many insiders of VVUS (including VVUS CEO), sell at the day (Sept 9'2009)
when VVUS announce their good result for Qnexa will naturally cause concern.

Because, with the "good" result that VVUS reported for Qnexa and with VVUS CEO telling everybody that VVUS is ready to partner Qnexa,
and You had wrote here before that VVUS might be a buy out candidate,
why did so many insider still sell ?
and why did they choose the same date as the Qnexa news release as the date to sell ?

I mean the next phase might be partnership or Buy Out,
and just the anticipation of partnership or Buy Out will surely push VVUS shares price higher, if the insider do not sell !

so the fact that the insider still sell, most probably mean no Partnership is imminent and certainly no Buy Out is imminent.

VVUS CEO will be the one that know the most about possible partnership/buy out, and if he vote negative with his stock selling,
than that should give us a clue !

again if VVUS CEO want to cancel his pre plan stock selling,
he can and that is legal.

I also want to point out that last year, on December 12'2008,
VVUS CEO also sell his shares right at the same date as Big VVUS Science day event !
There is remarkable similarity here,
which VVUS CEO selling his shares at the same day when VVUS is doing a big event/result announcement !

sometimes, you just had to follow the money...

and by the way,
below is a link to Yahoo VVUS insider transaction,
just for reference for other reader here:
finance.yahoo.com/q/it...

VVUS CEO, Leland Wilson sell 2/3 of his remaining shares before the Qnexa result. that is big number, and the result of those sales is $2.2 million dollar.
and if I am not mistaken, you had suggested that VVUS should get buy out at around $20, which mean, if Leland Wilson wait for buy out of VVUS, his shares should net him more than $4million dollar !

and if buy out is imminent, I am sure Leland Wilson would rather cancel his pre arrange stock plan for sure !
Remember this Pre Arrange stock plan is created to allow insider to sell their shares even though they might know some material information of the company.

and Leland Wilson is not the only person who sell a lot of shares after Sept 9'2009 !

I remember last year, you told me that Leland Wilson was going to divorce or something like that an probably need to diversified his asset, but why he always choose a big day for VVUS to sell his shares ?

regarding VVUS result, I agree with you that the efficacy (weight loss) is marvelous especially for the highest dose !
but the safety profile is still not very clear from VVUS press release.
as you know, usually the devil in the detail is only revealed when
FDA issue the guidance document for the FDA panel meeting,
just few days before the FDA advisory panel met.
so I don't think we will ever found out that "devil in the detail",
until 3 days before the FDA advisory panel.
I am sure you will agree with me that most probably, FDA will ask
for advisory panel meeting for Qnexa.

when insider buy, people would say, ah they know something positive, so let's buy too,

so when insider sell, of course people would thing the other way.
ah they know something negative, so let's sell too !

and it is funny that when VVUS reach bottom of $3 this year,
the VVUS insider as you wrote above actually make a PRE ARRANGED Selling plan.
If they are so confident with VVUS, why don't they actually buy more VVUS shares when VVUS is at the bottom earliar this year ?
instead of buying they actually thinking of selling !

Ruthanne, I am sure you had done lot of due diligence in VVUS,
and you like what you see on VVUS.
But in the end, you are still Outsider and not Insider of VVUS.

Perhaps this is the right moment for you to review again your level of confidence on VVUS, because the insider of VVUS certainly don't have as high confidence on VVUS as you.

I was Over Confident on ARNA Lorcaserin,
and I made mistake, cause I extrapolate too much of the past efficacy data, and again I made a mistake on predicting the efficacy of Lorcaserin, even though I am correct (so far) on the safety or Lorcaserin.
and I am sure this will not be my first mistake,
that is why I am waiting eagerly for ARNA next PHase 3 result.
But I admit that my prediction of Lorcaserin chance to be blockbuster right away had gone down now.

I just want to ask your honest feeling,...
that after seeing all this huge insider selling,
don't you think you should lower your confidence level on VVUS ?
especially as an outsider ?

don't you think VVUS CEO and other insider know much more than you can on Qnexa and Partnership/buy out prospect ?

Best Regards,
Me

FDA Approval Letter!

If that is what happened, FDA will surely call HEB and ask for the correct ZIP code,
and in the mean time HEB can ask the FDA to fax the approval letter.

There are many times, when the FDA simply fax the approval letter to met the PDUFA date, and the official letter follow few days later by mail !

Read what CEO of Carter said on Rodman and Renshaw conference few days ago, and if the ZIP code is the problem
Carter must had been telling everybody by now !
www.thestreet.com/stor...