Amouna's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/290839/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174575-the-oil-casino-sec-heading-for-monte-carlo-part-i?source=feed#comment-772050 772050 Sun, 22 Nov 2009 14:01:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171453-goldman-sachs-is-printing-money?source=feed#comment-746757 746757
a) ZIRP almost everywhere on the face of earth. Money is free and leverage is still on their balance sheet (not a towering 40:1 ratio but probably around 20-25:1).

b) Tail Risk is still there

c) As to the collateral, I am curious to see what happened to level 3 assets held by GS as of end of 2008...


But I still believe it has a very strong business model.]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:54:05 -0500
a) ZIRP almost everywhere on the face of earth. Money is free and leverage is still on their balance sheet (not a towering 40:1 ratio but probably around 20-25:1).

b) Tail Risk is still there

c) As to the collateral, I am curious to see what happened to level 3 assets held by GS as of end of 2008...


But I still believe it has a very strong business model.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170799-zero-interest-rate-policy-the-cruelest-tax-of-all?source=feed#comment-743203 743203
cut useless spending, let failed business go bankrupt and restore a viable business environment where thrifty entrepreneurs and innovators can have access to resource capital, not consumers and speculators.


On Nov 03 02:02 PM Mr. Big wrote:

> Great article! You target an excellent point that interest rates
> determine the balance of savers and borrowers. And that explains
> why we have the zero-interest rate policy. The whole Obama strategy
> for the economic "recovery" is to eliminate the saver and boost the
> spender because savers do not contribute to GDP.....but spenders
> do.
>
> This is absolutely a redistribution of wealth, to steal from savers
> and transfer the benefit to borrowers. Again, this is another example
> of prudency being punished and recklessness rewarded, but this time,
> via zero interest rates.
>
> And let's add to this the destruction of the purchasing power of
> the US dollar. In a currency depreciating environment, the ones
> who spend the dollars first (i.e. spenders) wins over those who spend
> them last (i.e. savers). The zero interest rate policy further supports
> a weaker dollar and therefore adds even more punishment to the saver.
> All this....to benefit the borrower.
>
> That's why it is only a matter of time, when the saver will be squeezed
> to the point where there's nothing more to give to the borrower.
> When the treasury bubble finally pops. And the dollar carry trades
> unwind. And we will witness the massive selling in the markets to
> cover the dollar shorts, as the borrowers scramble to save themselves
> from financial ruin. As interest rates ramp up to the natural equilibrium
> between borrowers and savers, the still-weak economy will grind to
> a halt. And interest rates MUST go up, lest the Treasury find themselves
> without a lender, or should the Fed be that lender, risk further
> destruction of the USD (and hyperinflation).
>
> It is only a matter of time before one of the seams of this massive
> (and wasted) stimulus experiment breaks. And we will see first hand
> what the true state of the economy is....]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:16:11 -0500
cut useless spending, let failed business go bankrupt and restore a viable business environment where thrifty entrepreneurs and innovators can have access to resource capital, not consumers and speculators.


On Nov 03 02:02 PM Mr. Big wrote:

> Great article! You target an excellent point that interest rates
> determine the balance of savers and borrowers. And that explains
> why we have the zero-interest rate policy. The whole Obama strategy
> for the economic "recovery" is to eliminate the saver and boost the
> spender because savers do not contribute to GDP.....but spenders
> do.
>
> This is absolutely a redistribution of wealth, to steal from savers
> and transfer the benefit to borrowers. Again, this is another example
> of prudency being punished and recklessness rewarded, but this time,
> via zero interest rates.
>
> And let's add to this the destruction of the purchasing power of
> the US dollar. In a currency depreciating environment, the ones
> who spend the dollars first (i.e. spenders) wins over those who spend
> them last (i.e. savers). The zero interest rate policy further supports
> a weaker dollar and therefore adds even more punishment to the saver.
> All this....to benefit the borrower.
>
> That's why it is only a matter of time, when the saver will be squeezed
> to the point where there's nothing more to give to the borrower.
> When the treasury bubble finally pops. And the dollar carry trades
> unwind. And we will witness the massive selling in the markets to
> cover the dollar shorts, as the borrowers scramble to save themselves
> from financial ruin. As interest rates ramp up to the natural equilibrium
> between borrowers and savers, the still-weak economy will grind to
> a halt. And interest rates MUST go up, lest the Treasury find themselves
> without a lender, or should the Fed be that lender, risk further
> destruction of the USD (and hyperinflation).
>
> It is only a matter of time before one of the seams of this massive
> (and wasted) stimulus experiment breaks. And we will see first hand
> what the true state of the economy is....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140100-markets-will-ultimately-determine-long-term-interest-rates?source=feed#comment-521725 521725

On May 28 07:17 AM Clive Corcoran wrote:

> Do you really think that Marc Faber's comments about hyper-inflation
> were taken seriously by traders yesterday?]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 14:52:14 -0400

On May 28 07:17 AM Clive Corcoran wrote:

> Do you really think that Marc Faber's comments about hyper-inflation
> were taken seriously by traders yesterday?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134487-solar-industry-s-long-term-outlook?source=feed#comment-486035 486035 Fri, 01 May 2009 15:31:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134543-first-solar-revives-hope-for-alternative-energy?source=feed#comment-485109 485109 Fri, 01 May 2009 05:19:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133647-genus-capital-bullish-on-potash-aecon-group-and-husky-energy?source=feed#comment-481381 481381
I am considering joining the bandwagon for POT. Less sure about Husky Energy. I might go with Suncor...]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:43:06 -0400
I am considering joining the bandwagon for POT. Less sure about Husky Energy. I might go with Suncor...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133253-natural-gas-is-heading-to-1997-levels-should-stay-there-awhile?source=feed#comment-479656 479656 LNG). Their stock will take off to the moon in a matter of months....]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 15:52:28 -0400 LNG). Their stock will take off to the moon in a matter of months....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133341-solar-stocks-look-ripe?source=feed#comment-479552 479552
]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:22:42 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132906-financial-sector-ultra-shorts-must-have-protection-against-banking-sector-madness?source=feed#comment-475350 475350 ]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 05:41:33 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132625-south-africa-still-shines-among-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-474577 474577

On Apr 23 01:10 PM Charlie Bottle wrote:

> Large current account deficits. Low on forex reserves. Currency
> is very risky. Miners which have US$ based prices are a good bet
> but companies focusing on the domestic market are not.]]> Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:15:36 -0400

On Apr 23 01:10 PM Charlie Bottle wrote:

> Large current account deficits. Low on forex reserves. Currency
> is very risky. Miners which have US$ based prices are a good bet
> but companies focusing on the domestic market are not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130812-ten-ways-to-invest-in-cuba?source=feed#comment-467110 467110


On Apr 16 06:46 AM Eric Fox wrote:

> Don't forget sovereign debt of Cuba:
>
> www.cubamania.com/cuba...
>
> if you really want to speculate.]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2009 17:14:04 -0400


On Apr 16 06:46 AM Eric Fox wrote:

> Don't forget sovereign debt of Cuba:
>
> www.cubamania.com/cuba...
>
> if you really want to speculate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131274-general-growth-properties-a-really-big-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-467012 467012

On Apr 16 02:00 PM len811 wrote:

> RE: "Most of the company’s 200+ malls are part of the filing, although
> about 70 are not."
>
> Is there a list somewhere?]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:32:35 -0400

On Apr 16 02:00 PM len811 wrote:

> RE: "Most of the company’s 200+ malls are part of the filing, although
> about 70 are not."
>
> Is there a list somewhere?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131294-moodys-downgrades-finlands-banking-system-to-negative?source=feed#comment-465851 465851
Another absurd story was the downgrade of Moody's of New Zealand's Sovereign debt while the US keeps the printing presses running 24 hrs a day. How can we trust morons like these?
]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 18:27:06 -0400
Another absurd story was the downgrade of Moody's of New Zealand's Sovereign debt while the US keeps the printing presses running 24 hrs a day. How can we trust morons like these?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130920-5-perverse-bailout-consequences?source=feed#comment-463834 463834 Wed, 15 Apr 2009 08:36:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130817-top-50-brazilian-financials-by-assets?source=feed#comment-462409 462409
Thanks for the info, much appreciated!
]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 06:12:58 -0400
Thanks for the info, much appreciated!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130258-peak-oil-china-vs-usa?source=feed#comment-458102 458102 Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:06:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130258-peak-oil-china-vs-usa?source=feed#comment-457864 457864
]]> Thu, 09 Apr 2009 15:10:45 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130146-200-oil-is-coming-while-we-waste-a-perfectly-good-crisis-part-3?source=feed#comment-456611 456611

On Apr 08 12:53 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> Total crap article. Someone's heavily invested in "green" and the
> return to affordable oil has gutted his portfolio. One thing he
> should research and consider -- there are now good reasons to believe
> that crude is formed by abiotic processes, and is therefore not non-renewable.
> Don't let your politics interfere with your profits...especially
> when your politics are just plain wrong!]]> Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:29:45 -0400

On Apr 08 12:53 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> Total crap article. Someone's heavily invested in "green" and the
> return to affordable oil has gutted his portfolio. One thing he
> should research and consider -- there are now good reasons to believe
> that crude is formed by abiotic processes, and is therefore not non-renewable.
> Don't let your politics interfere with your profits...especially
> when your politics are just plain wrong!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129088-how-long-will-the-chinese-let-the-u-s-bluff?source=feed#comment-455058 455058

On Apr 02 08:47 AM TeresaE wrote:

> Our idiot government and corporation have GIFTED China our demise.
>
>
> We sent them our jobs (our best customers-broke, underemployed and
> bankrupt now), then we sent them our cash, but not cash, we bought
> their goods with credit, then credit was taken away from us (2005
> financial acts) and now they are licking their chops waiting to grow
> their economy to the point that they can afford to consume all the
> products they produce--and that day is quickly approaching. We forget
> that the Chinese middle class dwarfs the entire population of America,
> they soon won't truly need us.
>
> This will be yet another problem caused by massive debt and credit,
> but this time China will help, by swooping in and buying our country
> out from under us. With our money (for if not for American consumerism,
> China would NOT be as cash strong as they are) they will own us-lock,
> stock and barrel.]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 13:00:11 -0400

On Apr 02 08:47 AM TeresaE wrote:

> Our idiot government and corporation have GIFTED China our demise.
>
>
> We sent them our jobs (our best customers-broke, underemployed and
> bankrupt now), then we sent them our cash, but not cash, we bought
> their goods with credit, then credit was taken away from us (2005
> financial acts) and now they are licking their chops waiting to grow
> their economy to the point that they can afford to consume all the
> products they produce--and that day is quickly approaching. We forget
> that the Chinese middle class dwarfs the entire population of America,
> they soon won't truly need us.
>
> This will be yet another problem caused by massive debt and credit,
> but this time China will help, by swooping in and buying our country
> out from under us. With our money (for if not for American consumerism,
> China would NOT be as cash strong as they are) they will own us-lock,
> stock and barrel.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129843-green-stimulus-by-nation?source=feed#comment-454508 454508 ]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 06:59:11 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129377-best-and-worst-foreign-bank-stocks-ytd?source=feed#comment-450907 450907 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 11:37:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128316-economic-fault-lines-emerge?source=feed#comment-450861 450861
No wonder Prozac was a success among twenty somethings back in the nineties!!


On Mar 29 10:50 AM O-B-WON wrote:

> This past generation has had it too easy.... It was the me and now
> generation... all about instant gratification.. and unfortunately
> I see it in my own kids and grandkids..
>
> Overweight..?? take a pill...
>
> Stressed out....? take a pill
>
> Don't want to work..?? go on food stamps..
>
> Come in last place at the little league peewee baseball tournament...??
> you still get a trophy
>
> So now, we want to take the easy painless way out of this mess....
> aint gonna happen
>
> Peter hit the nail on the head.... "no pain ... no gain"
>
> All bets are off.... it's gonna be like nothing anybody has ever
> seen...
>
> Prepare accordingly...
> ]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 11:13:53 -0400
No wonder Prozac was a success among twenty somethings back in the nineties!!


On Mar 29 10:50 AM O-B-WON wrote:

> This past generation has had it too easy.... It was the me and now
> generation... all about instant gratification.. and unfortunately
> I see it in my own kids and grandkids..
>
> Overweight..?? take a pill...
>
> Stressed out....? take a pill
>
> Don't want to work..?? go on food stamps..
>
> Come in last place at the little league peewee baseball tournament...??
> you still get a trophy
>
> So now, we want to take the easy painless way out of this mess....
> aint gonna happen
>
> Peter hit the nail on the head.... "no pain ... no gain"
>
> All bets are off.... it's gonna be like nothing anybody has ever
> seen...
>
> Prepare accordingly...
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129285-speculators-return-to-commodities-aussie-and-canadian-dollar?source=feed#comment-450560 450560
I thought since the infrastructure plans are about building roads, bridges, this will necessitate steel, and a lot of it!
So companies like Mittal, Nippon Steel, Evraz and others will benefit


On Apr 03 08:44 AM chistletoe wrote:

> Amouna -- 50% of steel production is used to fabricate new automobiles...
> if you think that that will increase soon, go for it!
>
> Gary -- "There are times when it pays to be a contrarian, to think
> outside-the-box, to bet against the conventional wisdom of the crowd,
> and ignore the chatter of the media"
>
> all the time.]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 08:51:45 -0400
I thought since the infrastructure plans are about building roads, bridges, this will necessitate steel, and a lot of it!
So companies like Mittal, Nippon Steel, Evraz and others will benefit


On Apr 03 08:44 AM chistletoe wrote:

> Amouna -- 50% of steel production is used to fabricate new automobiles...
> if you think that that will increase soon, go for it!
>
> Gary -- "There are times when it pays to be a contrarian, to think
> outside-the-box, to bet against the conventional wisdom of the crowd,
> and ignore the chatter of the media"
>
> all the time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129285-speculators-return-to-commodities-aussie-and-canadian-dollar?source=feed#comment-450526 450526 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 08:31:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129120-bric-coalition-most-beneficial-for-brazil?source=feed#comment-450464 450464 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 07:18:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129068-stick-with-gold-and-the-oil-stocks?source=feed#comment-449400 449400 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:56:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129157-mark-to-market-time-of-death-8-45am-april-2-2009?source=feed#comment-449396 449396
"Fair-value requires companies to set values on most securities each quarter based on market prices. Wells Fargo and other banks argue the rule doesn’t make sense when trading has dried up because it forces companies to write down assets to fire-sale prices."

I tell WFC: the trading in such securities has dried up for a reason! the reason being that no moron wants to buy those stupid assets, therefore you have to mark them at fire sale prices....!!!!!]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:54:35 -0400
"Fair-value requires companies to set values on most securities each quarter based on market prices. Wells Fargo and other banks argue the rule doesn’t make sense when trading has dried up because it forces companies to write down assets to fire-sale prices."

I tell WFC: the trading in such securities has dried up for a reason! the reason being that no moron wants to buy those stupid assets, therefore you have to mark them at fire sale prices....!!!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129055-why-is-first-solar-so-far-ahead-of-the-competition?source=feed#comment-448881 448881
1) Jiangsu province, the "California of China", sets in place a very generous feed in tariff for the local players. This will translate in a pipeline of projects for STP, JASO, TSL and YGE that will make FSLR's look small in a matter of months. When the chinese government backs something, they do it big. You only have to look at the Olympics to have a taste of what I am talking about.

2) When the Jiangsu province model is replicated in other Chinese provinces, the solar mania catches fire in China.

See, I am not arguing the superiority of the technical leadership of the american vs the chinese companies, because the two are operating in two different segments of the PV industry. The radical difference will come from the size of the markets, which by the way I disagree with the fact that the US will have a bigger PV market than China (they have a much bigger energy market and it is logical their needs will be bigger).

Last point, When I see the current performance of the present administration in the US, one thing is for sure: Obama's efforts will FIRST focus on bailing out Wall street institutions for YEARS, before we see any real focus on National energy strategy.]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 06:29:29 -0400
1) Jiangsu province, the "California of China", sets in place a very generous feed in tariff for the local players. This will translate in a pipeline of projects for STP, JASO, TSL and YGE that will make FSLR's look small in a matter of months. When the chinese government backs something, they do it big. You only have to look at the Olympics to have a taste of what I am talking about.

2) When the Jiangsu province model is replicated in other Chinese provinces, the solar mania catches fire in China.

See, I am not arguing the superiority of the technical leadership of the american vs the chinese companies, because the two are operating in two different segments of the PV industry. The radical difference will come from the size of the markets, which by the way I disagree with the fact that the US will have a bigger PV market than China (they have a much bigger energy market and it is logical their needs will be bigger).

Last point, When I see the current performance of the present administration in the US, one thing is for sure: Obama's efforts will FIRST focus on bailing out Wall street institutions for YEARS, before we see any real focus on National energy strategy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128148-expect-oil-to-approach-100-bbl-again-by-summer?source=feed#comment-441979 441979 Fri, 27 Mar 2009 06:03:56 -0400